Horace Mann Educators Corporation

HMN

Financial ServicesInsurance - Property & CasualtyNYSE

$44.42

Market Cap: $1.79B

Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 28, 2026 22:23

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$129.71 – $633.84	$216.24	+368.8%
Growth Exit 10Y	$161.35 – $757.84	$264.61	+473.6%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$87.82 – $208.76	$143.16	+210.3%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$119.77 – $272.46	$184.68	+300.4%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$39.80 – $59.97	$44.13	-4.3%
EV/EBITDA	—	N/A	—
EV/Revenue	$58.20 – $209.83	$105.36	+128.4%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$31.20 – $31.20	$31.20	-32.4%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$133.70 – $213.17	$165.00	+257.7%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$18.25 – $48.76	$27.50	-40.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$216.24

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

+386.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Horace Mann Educators Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -24.5% to 8.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 110, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 7.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (82% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $216.24 per share, suggesting HMN is undervalued by 386.8% at the current price of $44.42.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.06%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	466	488	508	549	593	608
(−) Net Interest	23	24	25	27	29	30
(+) D&A	0	13	26	40	55	57
EBITDA	489	525	560	616	678	695

(−) Tax	50	53	55	59	64	66
(−) CapEx	64	67	70	76	82	84
(−) ΔWC	29	21	19	39	42	43
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	346	384	416	442	490	502

Terminal Value						11,004
WACC / Discount Rate	7.1%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	334	347	350	348	360	7,823

Enterprise Value	9,563
Projection Period	1,740	18.2%
Terminal Value	7,823	81.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	567

Equity Value	8,996
(/) Outstanding Shares	42

Fair Price	$216.24

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.1%	$295	$338	$398	$487	$634
6.1%	$226	$251	$282	$323	$380
7.1%	$182	$198	$216	$239	$269
8.1%	$152	$162	$174	$189	$207
9.1%	$130	$137	$145	$155	$167

Current price: $44.42. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$264.61

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

+495.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Horace Mann Educators Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -24.5% to 4.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 110, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 7.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (69% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $264.61 per share, suggesting HMN is undervalued by 495.7% at the current price of $44.42.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.06%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	466	488	508	549	593	640	685	726	762	793	813
(−) Net Interest	23	24	25	27	29	32	34	36	38	39	40
(+) D&A	0	13	26	40	55	72	77	82	88	94	96
EBITDA	489	525	560	616	678	744	796	844	888	926	949

(−) Tax	50	53	55	59	64	69	74	78	82	86	88
(−) CapEx	64	67	70	76	82	88	94	100	105	109	112
(−) ΔWC	29	21	19	39	42	46	43	40	35	29	30
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	346	384	416	442	490	541	584	626	666	702	720

Terminal Value											15,775
WACC / Discount Rate	7.1%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	334	347	350	348	360	372	375	375	373	367	7,973

Enterprise Value	11,575
Projection Period	3,602	31.1%
Terminal Value	7,973	68.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	567

Equity Value	11,008
(/) Outstanding Shares	42

Fair Price	$264.61

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.1%	$378	$427	$494	$594	$758
6.1%	$288	$314	$347	$391	$452
7.1%	$230	$246	$265	$288	$318
8.1%	$190	$200	$212	$226	$244
9.1%	$161	$168	$176	$185	$196

Current price: $44.42. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$143.21

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

+222.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Horace Mann Educators Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -24.5% to 8.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 110, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 7.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (73% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.7x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $143.16 per share, suggesting HMN is undervalued by 222.3% at the current price of $44.42.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.06%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.69x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	466	488	508	549	593	608
(−) Net Interest	23	24	25	27	29	30
(+) D&A	0	13	26	40	55	57
EBITDA	489	525	560	616	678	695

(−) Tax	50	53	55	59	64	—
(−) CapEx	64	67	70	76	82	—
(−) ΔWC	29	21	19	39	42	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	346	384	416	442	490	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						9.7x
Terminal Value						6,730
WACC / Discount Rate	7.06%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	334	347	350	348	360	4,785

Enterprise Value	6,525
Projection Period	1,740	26.7%
Terminal Value	4,785	73.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	567
Equity Value	5,957
(÷) Outstanding Shares	42M
Fair Price	$143	+222.4%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.7x	7.7x	9.7x	11.7x	13.7x
5.1%	$104	$131	$157	$183	$209
6.1%	$100	$125	$150	$175	$199
7.1%	$96	$119	$143	$167	$191
8.1%	$92	$114	$137	$160	$182
9.1%	$88	$109	$131	$153	$174

Current price: $44.42. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$184.73

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

+315.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Horace Mann Educators Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -24.5% to 4.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 110, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 7.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (56% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.7x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $184.68 per share, suggesting HMN is undervalued by 315.8% at the current price of $44.42.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.06%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.69x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	466	488	508	549	593	640	685	726	762	793	813
(−) Net Interest	23	24	25	27	29	32	34	36	38	39	40
(+) D&A	0	13	26	40	55	72	77	82	88	94	96
EBITDA	489	525	560	616	678	744	796	844	888	926	949

(−) Tax	50	53	55	59	64	69	74	78	82	86	—
(−) CapEx	64	67	70	76	82	88	94	100	105	109	—
(−) ΔWC	29	21	19	39	42	46	43	40	35	29	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	346	384	416	442	490	541	584	626	666	702	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											9.7x
Terminal Value											9,200
WACC / Discount Rate	7.06%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	334	347	350	348	360	372	375	375	373	367	4,650

Enterprise Value	8,252
Projection Period	3,602	43.6%
Terminal Value	4,650	56.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	567
Equity Value	7,685
(÷) Outstanding Shares	42M
Fair Price	$185	+315.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.7x	7.7x	9.7x	11.7x	13.7x
5.1%	$161	$189	$217	$245	$272
6.1%	$149	$175	$200	$225	$251
7.1%	$139	$162	$185	$208	$231
8.1%	$129	$150	$171	$192	$213
9.1%	$120	$139	$158	$177	$196

Current price: $44.42. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$44.13

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

-0.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) has a fair value of $44.13 based on 9 comparable companies in the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry.

P/E Valuation — Insurance - Property & Casualty

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Horace Mann Educators CorporationHMN	1,848	11.4x	22.5x
WisdomTree, Inc.WT	2,368	22.3x	25.8x
Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. Common StockSLDE	2,346	5.6x	4.4x
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.NIC	2,336	15.2x	21.0x
Stewart Information Services CorporationSTC	2,175	17.6x	22.4x
Northwest Bancshares, Inc.NWBI	2,071	15.4x	17.6x
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.SKWD	2,031	11.2x	15.0x
OFG BancorpOFG	1,975	10.2x	11.2x
City Holding CompanyCHCO	1,777	14.1x	16.2x
Tri-Continental CorporationTY	1,762	7.1x	—
Industry Median		14.1x	16.9x
(*) Profit after tax		162	82
Equity Value		2,283	1,388
(/) Outstanding shares		42	42
Fair Price		$55	$33

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$44.13

-0.7%

Fair Value

$62.32

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

+40.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) has a fair value of $62.32 based on 9 comparable companies in the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Insurance - Property & Casualty

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Horace Mann Educators CorporationHMN	1,848	9.1x	9.5x
WisdomTree, Inc.WT	2,368	16.9x	19.6x
Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. Common StockSLDE	2,346	4.0x	4.7x
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.NIC	2,336	9.7x	16.2x
Stewart Information Services CorporationSTC	2,175	11.4x	13.4x
Northwest Bancshares, Inc.NWBI	2,071	13.9x	24.7x
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.SKWD	2,031	8.7x	7.1x
OFG BancorpOFG	1,975	5.3x	7.1x
City Holding CompanyCHCO	1,777	12.5x	17.1x
Tri-Continental CorporationTY	1,762	6.9x	—
Industry Median		9.7x	14.8x
(*) EBITDA		265	253
= Enterprise Value		2,564	3,755
(-) Net Debt		567	567
Equity Value		1,997	3,188
(/) Outstanding shares		42	42
Fair Price		$48	$77

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$62.32

+40.3%

Fair Value

$102.97

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

+131.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) has a fair value of $102.97 based on 9 comparable companies in the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Insurance - Property & Casualty

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Horace Mann Educators CorporationHMN	1,848	1.5x	1.6x
WisdomTree, Inc.WT	2,368	6.1x	7.1x
Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. Common StockSLDE	2,346	2.0x	2.4x
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.NIC	2,336	3.3x	5.5x
Stewart Information Services CorporationSTC	2,175	0.9x	1.1x
Northwest Bancshares, Inc.NWBI	2,071	2.6x	4.6x
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.SKWD	2,031	1.4x	1.1x
OFG BancorpOFG	1,975	1.8x	2.4x
City Holding CompanyCHCO	1,777	5.5x	7.4x
Tri-Continental CorporationTY	1,762	8.6x	—
Industry Median		2.6x	3.5x
(*) Revenue		1,625	1,556
= Enterprise Value		4,231	5,470
(-) Net Debt		567	567
Equity Value		3,664	4,903
(/) Outstanding shares		42	42
Fair Price		$88	$118

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$102.97

+131.8%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$31.20

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

-29.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 8.0% plus 3.1% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $31.20 based on TTM EPS (FY2025) of $3.90. The current PEG ratio is 1.78.

PEG Ratio

1.78Pricey

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 11.8 ÷ (3.6% + 3.1%) = 1.78

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Slow GrowerPEG less reliable

PEG tends to undervalue slow growers — consider dividend yield and asset value instead.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateHistorical	3.6%
Dividend Yield	+3.1%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	8.0%
Fair P/E	8.0x
TTM EPS (FY2025)	$3.90
Fair Value	$31.20

Growth Analysis

Forward Growth

No analyst estimates available.

Historical GrowthActive

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$170.4M	$3.39	—
FY2022	$19.8M	$0.47	-86.1%
FY2023	$45.0M	$1.09	+131.9%
FY2024	$102.8M	$2.48	+127.5%
FY2025	$162.1M	$3.90	+57.3%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 3.6%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$165.00

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

+271.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 7.1% and normalized earnings of $524.8M, the company has a fair value of $165.00 per share. The EPV range is $133.70 – $213.17 based on WACC sensitivity (5.6% – 8.6%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	525	525	525
(/) WACC	8.6%	7.1%	5.6%
Enterprise Value	6,129	7,431	9,435
(-) Net debt	567	567	567
Equity Value	5,562	6,864	8,868
(/) Outstanding shares	42	42	42
Fair Price	$133.70	$165.00	$213.17

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$27.50

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

-38.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 7.7% and projected dividend growth of 3.0%, the fair value is $27.50 per share. The DDM range is $18.25 – $48.76 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.37

Dividend Yield

3.07%

Payout Ratio

35.2%

Dividend Coverage

2.84x

FCF Payout Ratio58.3%

DPS CAGR (4Y)3.0%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$1.37	35.2%	+2.6%
2024	$1.34	54.0%	+2.7%
2023	$1.30	119.8%	+3.5%
2022	$1.26	265.7%	+3.3%
2021	$1.22	30.2%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.41	3.0%	0.9282	$1.31
2027	$1.46	3.0%	0.8615	$1.26
2028	$1.50	3.0%	0.7997	$1.20
2029	$1.55	3.0%	0.7422	$1.15
2030	$1.59	3.0%	0.6889	$1.10
Terminal Value	$1.63 DPS	2.5%		$21.49

PV of Projected Dividends$6.01

PV of Terminal Value$21.49

Fair Value per Share$27.50

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	1.0%	2.0%	3.0%	4.0%	5.0%
5.7%	$41	$43	$45	$47	$49
6.7%	$31	$33	$34	$36	$37
7.7%	$25	$26	$28	$29	$30
8.7%	$21	$22	$23	$24	$25
9.7%	$18	$19	$20	$21	$22

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 28, 2026 22:23

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$129.71 – $633.84	$216.24	+368.8%
Growth Exit 10Y	$161.35 – $757.84	$264.61	+473.6%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$87.82 – $208.76	$143.16	+210.3%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$119.77 – $272.46	$184.68	+300.4%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$39.80 – $59.97	$44.13	-4.3%
EV/EBITDA	—	N/A	—
EV/Revenue	$58.20 – $209.83	$105.36	+128.4%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$31.20 – $31.20	$31.20	-32.4%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$133.70 – $213.17	$165.00	+257.7%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$18.25 – $48.76	$27.50	-40.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$216.24

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

+386.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.06%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	466	488	508	549	593	608
(−) Net Interest	23	24	25	27	29	30
(+) D&A	0	13	26	40	55	57
EBITDA	489	525	560	616	678	695

(−) Tax	50	53	55	59	64	66
(−) CapEx	64	67	70	76	82	84
(−) ΔWC	29	21	19	39	42	43
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	346	384	416	442	490	502

Terminal Value						11,004
WACC / Discount Rate	7.1%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	334	347	350	348	360	7,823

Enterprise Value	9,563
Projection Period	1,740	18.2%
Terminal Value	7,823	81.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	567

Equity Value	8,996
(/) Outstanding Shares	42

Fair Price	$216.24

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.1%	$295	$338	$398	$487	$634
6.1%	$226	$251	$282	$323	$380
7.1%	$182	$198	$216	$239	$269
8.1%	$152	$162	$174	$189	$207
9.1%	$130	$137	$145	$155	$167

Current price: $44.42. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$264.61

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

+495.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.06%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	466	488	508	549	593	640	685	726	762	793	813
(−) Net Interest	23	24	25	27	29	32	34	36	38	39	40
(+) D&A	0	13	26	40	55	72	77	82	88	94	96
EBITDA	489	525	560	616	678	744	796	844	888	926	949

(−) Tax	50	53	55	59	64	69	74	78	82	86	88
(−) CapEx	64	67	70	76	82	88	94	100	105	109	112
(−) ΔWC	29	21	19	39	42	46	43	40	35	29	30
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	346	384	416	442	490	541	584	626	666	702	720

Terminal Value											15,775
WACC / Discount Rate	7.1%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	334	347	350	348	360	372	375	375	373	367	7,973

Enterprise Value	11,575
Projection Period	3,602	31.1%
Terminal Value	7,973	68.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	567

Equity Value	11,008
(/) Outstanding Shares	42

Fair Price	$264.61

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.1%	$378	$427	$494	$594	$758
6.1%	$288	$314	$347	$391	$452
7.1%	$230	$246	$265	$288	$318
8.1%	$190	$200	$212	$226	$244
9.1%	$161	$168	$176	$185	$196

Current price: $44.42. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$143.21

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

+222.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Horace Mann Educators Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -24.5% to 8.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 110, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 7.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (73% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.7x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $143.16 per share, suggesting HMN is undervalued by 222.3% at the current price of $44.42.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.06%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.69x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	466	488	508	549	593	608
(−) Net Interest	23	24	25	27	29	30
(+) D&A	0	13	26	40	55	57
EBITDA	489	525	560	616	678	695

(−) Tax	50	53	55	59	64	—
(−) CapEx	64	67	70	76	82	—
(−) ΔWC	29	21	19	39	42	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	346	384	416	442	490	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						9.7x
Terminal Value						6,730
WACC / Discount Rate	7.06%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	334	347	350	348	360	4,785

Enterprise Value	6,525
Projection Period	1,740	26.7%
Terminal Value	4,785	73.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	567
Equity Value	5,957
(÷) Outstanding Shares	42M
Fair Price	$143	+222.4%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.7x	7.7x	9.7x	11.7x	13.7x
5.1%	$104	$131	$157	$183	$209
6.1%	$100	$125	$150	$175	$199
7.1%	$96	$119	$143	$167	$191
8.1%	$92	$114	$137	$160	$182
9.1%	$88	$109	$131	$153	$174

Current price: $44.42. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$184.73

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

+315.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Horace Mann Educators Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -24.5% to 4.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 110, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 7.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (56% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.7x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $184.68 per share, suggesting HMN is undervalued by 315.8% at the current price of $44.42.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.06%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.69x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	466	488	508	549	593	640	685	726	762	793	813
(−) Net Interest	23	24	25	27	29	32	34	36	38	39	40
(+) D&A	0	13	26	40	55	72	77	82	88	94	96
EBITDA	489	525	560	616	678	744	796	844	888	926	949

(−) Tax	50	53	55	59	64	69	74	78	82	86	—
(−) CapEx	64	67	70	76	82	88	94	100	105	109	—
(−) ΔWC	29	21	19	39	42	46	43	40	35	29	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	346	384	416	442	490	541	584	626	666	702	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											9.7x
Terminal Value											9,200
WACC / Discount Rate	7.06%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	334	347	350	348	360	372	375	375	373	367	4,650

Enterprise Value	8,252
Projection Period	3,602	43.6%
Terminal Value	4,650	56.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	567
Equity Value	7,685
(÷) Outstanding Shares	42M
Fair Price	$185	+315.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.7x	7.7x	9.7x	11.7x	13.7x
5.1%	$161	$189	$217	$245	$272
6.1%	$149	$175	$200	$225	$251
7.1%	$139	$162	$185	$208	$231
8.1%	$129	$150	$171	$192	$213
9.1%	$120	$139	$158	$177	$196

Current price: $44.42. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$44.13

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

-0.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

P/E Valuation — Insurance - Property & Casualty

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Horace Mann Educators CorporationHMN	1,848	11.4x	22.5x
WisdomTree, Inc.WT	2,368	22.3x	25.8x
Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. Common StockSLDE	2,346	5.6x	4.4x
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.NIC	2,336	15.2x	21.0x
Stewart Information Services CorporationSTC	2,175	17.6x	22.4x
Northwest Bancshares, Inc.NWBI	2,071	15.4x	17.6x
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.SKWD	2,031	11.2x	15.0x
OFG BancorpOFG	1,975	10.2x	11.2x
City Holding CompanyCHCO	1,777	14.1x	16.2x
Tri-Continental CorporationTY	1,762	7.1x	—
Industry Median		14.1x	16.9x
(*) Profit after tax		162	82
Equity Value		2,283	1,388
(/) Outstanding shares		42	42
Fair Price		$55	$33

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$44.13

-0.7%

Fair Value

$62.32

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

+40.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Insurance - Property & Casualty

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Horace Mann Educators CorporationHMN	1,848	9.1x	9.5x
WisdomTree, Inc.WT	2,368	16.9x	19.6x
Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. Common StockSLDE	2,346	4.0x	4.7x
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.NIC	2,336	9.7x	16.2x
Stewart Information Services CorporationSTC	2,175	11.4x	13.4x
Northwest Bancshares, Inc.NWBI	2,071	13.9x	24.7x
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.SKWD	2,031	8.7x	7.1x
OFG BancorpOFG	1,975	5.3x	7.1x
City Holding CompanyCHCO	1,777	12.5x	17.1x
Tri-Continental CorporationTY	1,762	6.9x	—
Industry Median		9.7x	14.8x
(*) EBITDA		265	253
= Enterprise Value		2,564	3,755
(-) Net Debt		567	567
Equity Value		1,997	3,188
(/) Outstanding shares		42	42
Fair Price		$48	$77

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$62.32

+40.3%

Fair Value

$102.97

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

+131.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Insurance - Property & Casualty

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Horace Mann Educators CorporationHMN	1,848	1.5x	1.6x
WisdomTree, Inc.WT	2,368	6.1x	7.1x
Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. Common StockSLDE	2,346	2.0x	2.4x
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.NIC	2,336	3.3x	5.5x
Stewart Information Services CorporationSTC	2,175	0.9x	1.1x
Northwest Bancshares, Inc.NWBI	2,071	2.6x	4.6x
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.SKWD	2,031	1.4x	1.1x
OFG BancorpOFG	1,975	1.8x	2.4x
City Holding CompanyCHCO	1,777	5.5x	7.4x
Tri-Continental CorporationTY	1,762	8.6x	—
Industry Median		2.6x	3.5x
(*) Revenue		1,625	1,556
= Enterprise Value		4,231	5,470
(-) Net Debt		567	567
Equity Value		3,664	4,903
(/) Outstanding shares		42	42
Fair Price		$88	$118

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$102.97

+131.8%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$31.20

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

-29.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 8.0% plus 3.1% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $31.20 based on TTM EPS (FY2025) of $3.90. The current PEG ratio is 1.78.

PEG Ratio

1.78Pricey

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 11.8 ÷ (3.6% + 3.1%) = 1.78

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Slow GrowerPEG less reliable

PEG tends to undervalue slow growers — consider dividend yield and asset value instead.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateHistorical	3.6%
Dividend Yield	+3.1%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	8.0%
Fair P/E	8.0x
TTM EPS (FY2025)	$3.90
Fair Value	$31.20

Growth Analysis

Forward Growth

No analyst estimates available.

Historical GrowthActive

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$170.4M	$3.39	—
FY2022	$19.8M	$0.47	-86.1%
FY2023	$45.0M	$1.09	+131.9%
FY2024	$102.8M	$2.48	+127.5%
FY2025	$162.1M	$3.90	+57.3%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 3.6%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$165.00

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

+271.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	525	525	525
(/) WACC	8.6%	7.1%	5.6%
Enterprise Value	6,129	7,431	9,435
(-) Net debt	567	567	567
Equity Value	5,562	6,864	8,868
(/) Outstanding shares	42	42	42
Fair Price	$133.70	$165.00	$213.17

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$27.50

Market Price

$44.42

Upside / Downside

-38.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.37

Dividend Yield

3.07%

Payout Ratio

35.2%

Dividend Coverage

2.84x

FCF Payout Ratio58.3%

DPS CAGR (4Y)3.0%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$1.37	35.2%	+2.6%
2024	$1.34	54.0%	+2.7%
2023	$1.30	119.8%	+3.5%
2022	$1.26	265.7%	+3.3%
2021	$1.22	30.2%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.41	3.0%	0.9282	$1.31
2027	$1.46	3.0%	0.8615	$1.26
2028	$1.50	3.0%	0.7997	$1.20
2029	$1.55	3.0%	0.7422	$1.15
2030	$1.59	3.0%	0.6889	$1.10
Terminal Value	$1.63 DPS	2.5%		$21.49

PV of Projected Dividends$6.01

PV of Terminal Value$21.49

Fair Value per Share$27.50

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	1.0%	2.0%	3.0%	4.0%	5.0%
5.7%	$41	$43	$45	$47	$49
6.7%	$31	$33	$34	$36	$37
7.7%	$25	$26	$28	$29	$30
8.7%	$21	$22	$23	$24	$25
9.7%	$18	$19	$20	$21	$22