Green Plains Inc.

GPRE

Basic MaterialsChemicals - SpecialtyNASDAQ

$16.81

Market Cap: $1.18B

Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 28, 2026 22:23

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$4.88 – $103.58	$39.80	+136.8%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$4.93 – $85.92	$34.04	+102.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$25.97 – $62.19	$44.30	+163.5%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$34.04

Market Price

$16.81

Upside / Downside

+102.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -4.0% to a target of 13.1% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 10.3%, Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) has an intrinsic value of $34.04 per share (range: $4.93 – $85.92).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.0%

Target Operating Margin

13.1%

WACC

10.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.4%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	2,170	3.7%	-0.6%	-13	-13	74	(96)	32	-67	-64
2027	2,329	7.3%	2.8%	66	52	80	(107)	9	16	13
2028	3,600	54.5%	6.3%	225	178	124	(172)	70	59	46
2029	3,800	5.6%	9.7%	368	291	130	(189)	11	221	157
2030	4,000	5.3%	13.1%	524	414	137	(205)	11	335	215
2031	3,778	-5.5%	13.1%	495	391	130	(201)	-12	333	194
2032	3,633	-3.8%	13.1%	476	376	125	(199)	-8	310	163
2033	3,556	-2.1%	13.1%	466	368	122	(201)	-4	293	140
2034	3,541	-0.4%	13.1%	464	367	121	(206)	-1	283	123
2035	3,587	1.3%	13.1%	470	371	123	(215)	3	277	109

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)1,096

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)3,887

PV of Terminal Value1,527

Enterprise Value2,624

(–) Net Debt326

Equity Value2,298

(÷) Shares Outstanding67

Fair Value per Share$34.04

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%	19.1%
8.3%	$15	$33	$50	$68	$86
9.3%	$11	$26	$41	$56	$71
10.3%	$9	$21	$34	$47	$60
11.3%	$7	$18	$29	$40	$51
12.3%	$5	$15	$25	$35	$44

Current price: $16.81. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 5.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$39.80

Market Price

$16.81

Upside / Downside

+136.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.0%

Target Operating Margin

13.1%

WACC

10.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.4%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	2,170	3.7%	-0.6%	-13	-13	74	(100)	32	-71	-67
2027	2,329	7.3%	2.8%	66	52	80	(116)	9	8	7
2028	3,600	54.5%	6.3%	225	178	124	(191)	70	40	31
2029	3,800	5.6%	9.7%	368	291	130	(215)	11	195	138
2030	4,000	5.3%	13.1%	524	414	137	(240)	11	300	193

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)302

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)4,219

PV of Terminal Value2,711

Enterprise Value3,012

(–) Net Debt326

Equity Value2,686

(÷) Shares Outstanding67

Fair Value per Share$39.80

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%	19.1%
8.3%	$16	$38	$60	$82	$104
9.3%	$12	$30	$48	$66	$84
10.3%	$9	$24	$40	$55	$71
11.3%	$7	$20	$33	$47	$60
12.3%	$5	$17	$28	$40	$52

Current price: $16.81. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 5.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$45.93

Market Price

$16.81

Upside / Downside

+173.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) has a fair value of $45.93 based on 9 comparable companies in the Chemicals - Specialty industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Chemicals - Specialty

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Green Plains Inc.GPRE	1,135	0.7x	0.6x
Tronox Holdings plcTROX	1,562	1.7x	1.6x
i-80 Gold Corp.IAUX	1,273	15.5x	6.4x
Compass Minerals International, Inc.CMP	1,096	1.5x	1.7x
Oil-Dri Corporation of AmericaODC	1,045	2.2x	2.0x
Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A.CPAC	922	1.2x	1.1x
Kronos Worldwide, Inc.KRO	830	0.7x	0.7x
Westlake Chemical Partners LPWLKP	804	1.0x	1.1x
Koppers Holdings Inc.KOP	802	1.0x	0.8x
Gevo, Inc.GEVO	444	3.8x	3.3x
Industry Median		1.5x	1.6x
(*) Revenue		2,092	2,308
= Enterprise Value		3,168	3,685
(-) Net Debt		326	326
Equity Value		2,842	3,359
(/) Outstanding shares		67	67
Fair Price		$42	$50

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$45.93

+173.3%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$4.88 – $103.58

$39.80

+136.8%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$4.93 – $85.92

$34.04

+102.5%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$25.97 – $62.19

$44.30

+163.5%

DCF Analysis

Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$34.04

Market Price

$16.81

Upside / Downside

+102.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.0%

Target Operating Margin

13.1%

WACC

10.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.4%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	2,170	3.7%	-0.6%	-13	-13	74	(96)	32	-67	-64
2027	2,329	7.3%	2.8%	66	52	80	(107)	9	16	13
2028	3,600	54.5%	6.3%	225	178	124	(172)	70	59	46
2029	3,800	5.6%	9.7%	368	291	130	(189)	11	221	157
2030	4,000	5.3%	13.1%	524	414	137	(205)	11	335	215
2031	3,778	-5.5%	13.1%	495	391	130	(201)	-12	333	194
2032	3,633	-3.8%	13.1%	476	376	125	(199)	-8	310	163
2033	3,556	-2.1%	13.1%	466	368	122	(201)	-4	293	140
2034	3,541	-0.4%	13.1%	464	367	121	(206)	-1	283	123
2035	3,587	1.3%	13.1%	470	371	123	(215)	3	277	109

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)1,096

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)3,887

PV of Terminal Value1,527

Enterprise Value2,624

(–) Net Debt326

Equity Value2,298

(÷) Shares Outstanding67

Fair Value per Share$34.04

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%	19.1%
8.3%	$15	$33	$50	$68	$86
9.3%	$11	$26	$41	$56	$71
10.3%	$9	$21	$34	$47	$60
11.3%	$7	$18	$29	$40	$51
12.3%	$5	$15	$25	$35	$44

Current price: $16.81. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 5.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$45.93

Market Price

$16.81

Upside / Downside

+173.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) has a fair value of $45.93 based on 9 comparable companies in the Chemicals - Specialty industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Chemicals - Specialty

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Green Plains Inc.GPRE	1,135	0.7x	0.6x
Tronox Holdings plcTROX	1,562	1.7x	1.6x
i-80 Gold Corp.IAUX	1,273	15.5x	6.4x
Compass Minerals International, Inc.CMP	1,096	1.5x	1.7x
Oil-Dri Corporation of AmericaODC	1,045	2.2x	2.0x
Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A.CPAC	922	1.2x	1.1x
Kronos Worldwide, Inc.KRO	830	0.7x	0.7x
Westlake Chemical Partners LPWLKP	804	1.0x	1.1x
Koppers Holdings Inc.KOP	802	1.0x	0.8x
Gevo, Inc.GEVO	444	3.8x	3.3x
Industry Median		1.5x	1.6x
(*) Revenue		2,092	2,308
= Enterprise Value		3,168	3,685
(-) Net Debt		326	326
Equity Value		2,842	3,359
(/) Outstanding shares		67	67
Fair Price		$42	$50

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$45.93

+173.3%