GPGI, Inc.

GPGI

IndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationNYSE

$13.88

Market Cap: $4.02B

GPGI, Inc. (GPGI) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 07:22

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.19 – $9.94	$2.85	-79.4%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.14 – $5.63	$1.45	-89.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$1.97 – $2.52	$6.32	-54.5%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

GPGI, Inc. (GPGI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.45

Market Price

$13.88

Upside / Downside

-89.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -22.9% to a target of 10.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.6%, GPGI, Inc. (GPGI) has an intrinsic value of $1.45 per share (range: $0.14 – $5.63).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-22.9%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.6%

Tax Rate

2.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	508	749.3%	-16.3%	-83	-83	13	(12)	79	-160	-154
2027	556	9.4%	-9.7%	-54	-54	15	(15)	7	-61	-54
2028	500	-10.0%	-3.0%	-15	-15	13	(16)	-9	-9	-7
2029	450	-10.0%	3.6%	16	16	12	(16)	-8	20	15
2030	405	-10.0%	10.3%	42	41	11	(16)	-7	43	29
2031	365	-10.0%	10.3%	38	37	10	(16)	-6	37	23
2032	328	-10.0%	10.3%	34	33	9	(16)	-6	32	19
2033	296	-10.0%	10.3%	30	30	8	(15)	-5	27	15
2034	275	-6.8%	10.3%	28	28	7	(15)	-3	23	11
2035	270	-1.9%	10.3%	28	27	7	(16)	-1	19	9

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-94

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)353

PV of Terminal Value162

Enterprise Value68

(–) Net Debt-115

Equity Value183

(÷) Shares Outstanding126

Fair Value per Share$1.45

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
6.6%	$-0	$1	$3	$4	$6
7.5%	$-0	$1	$2	$3	$4
8.6%	$-1	$0	$1	$2	$3
9.6%	$-1	$0	$1	$2	$3
10.6%	$-1	$0	$1	$2	$2

Current price: $13.88. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 15.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

GPGI, Inc. (GPGI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.85

Market Price

$13.88

Upside / Downside

-79.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -22.9% to a target of 10.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.6%, GPGI, Inc. (GPGI) has an intrinsic value of $2.85 per share (range: $0.19 – $9.94).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-22.9%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.6%

Tax Rate

2.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	508	749.3%	-16.3%	-83	-83	13	(14)	79	-162	-156
2027	556	9.4%	-9.7%	-54	-54	15	(20)	7	-66	-58
2028	500	-10.0%	-3.0%	-15	-15	13	(22)	-9	-15	-12
2029	450	-10.0%	3.6%	16	16	12	(23)	-8	12	9
2030	405	-10.0%	10.3%	42	41	11	(24)	-7	34	24

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-193

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)635

PV of Terminal Value439

Enterprise Value246

(–) Net Debt-115

Equity Value361

(÷) Shares Outstanding126

Fair Value per Share$2.85

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
6.6%	$1	$3	$5	$8	$10
7.5%	$0	$2	$4	$6	$7
8.6%	$-0	$1	$3	$4	$6
9.6%	$-0	$1	$2	$3	$5
10.6%	$-0	$1	$2	$3	$4

Current price: $13.88. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 15.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$6.32

Market Price

$13.88

Upside / Downside

-54.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), GPGI, Inc. (GPGI) has a fair value of $6.32 based on 10 comparable companies in the Manufacturing - Metal Fabrication industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Manufacturing - Metal Fabrication

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
GPGI, Inc.GPGI	1,755	27.4x	3.9x
ATI Inc.ATI	21,616	5.0x	4.6x
Carpenter Technology CorporationCRS	21,258	7.5x	6.9x
Mueller Industries, Inc.MLI	15,572	3.4x	3.4x
ESAB CorporationESAB	6,145	2.6x	2.7x
AZZ Inc.AZZ	4,410	3.0x	3.0x
Worthington Industries, Inc.WOR	2,758	2.5x	2.0x
Proto Labs, Inc.PRLB	1,622	2.8x	3.0x
NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.NWPX	1,084	2.3x	2.3x
Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.MEC	557	1.1x	1.0x
Insteel Industries, Inc.IIIN	524	0.8x	0.9x
Industry Median		2.7x	2.9x
(*) Revenue		60	422
= Enterprise Value		163	1,205
(-) Net Debt		-115	-115
Equity Value		277	1,320
(/) Outstanding shares		126	126
Fair Price		$2	$10

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$6.32

-54.5%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.19 – $9.94

$2.85

-79.4%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.14 – $5.63

$1.45

-89.6%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$1.97 – $2.52

$6.32

-54.5%

DCF Analysis

GPGI, Inc. (GPGI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.45

Market Price

$13.88

Upside / Downside

-89.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-22.9%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.6%

Tax Rate

2.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	508	749.3%	-16.3%	-83	-83	13	(12)	79	-160	-154
2027	556	9.4%	-9.7%	-54	-54	15	(15)	7	-61	-54
2028	500	-10.0%	-3.0%	-15	-15	13	(16)	-9	-9	-7
2029	450	-10.0%	3.6%	16	16	12	(16)	-8	20	15
2030	405	-10.0%	10.3%	42	41	11	(16)	-7	43	29
2031	365	-10.0%	10.3%	38	37	10	(16)	-6	37	23
2032	328	-10.0%	10.3%	34	33	9	(16)	-6	32	19
2033	296	-10.0%	10.3%	30	30	8	(15)	-5	27	15
2034	275	-6.8%	10.3%	28	28	7	(15)	-3	23	11
2035	270	-1.9%	10.3%	28	27	7	(16)	-1	19	9

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-94

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)353

PV of Terminal Value162

Enterprise Value68

(–) Net Debt-115

Equity Value183

(÷) Shares Outstanding126

Fair Value per Share$1.45

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
6.6%	$-0	$1	$3	$4	$6
7.5%	$-0	$1	$2	$3	$4
8.6%	$-1	$0	$1	$2	$3
9.6%	$-1	$0	$1	$2	$3
10.6%	$-1	$0	$1	$2	$2

Current price: $13.88. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 15.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$6.32

Market Price

$13.88

Upside / Downside

-54.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Manufacturing - Metal Fabrication

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
GPGI, Inc.GPGI	1,755	27.4x	3.9x
ATI Inc.ATI	21,616	5.0x	4.6x
Carpenter Technology CorporationCRS	21,258	7.5x	6.9x
Mueller Industries, Inc.MLI	15,572	3.4x	3.4x
ESAB CorporationESAB	6,145	2.6x	2.7x
AZZ Inc.AZZ	4,410	3.0x	3.0x
Worthington Industries, Inc.WOR	2,758	2.5x	2.0x
Proto Labs, Inc.PRLB	1,622	2.8x	3.0x
NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.NWPX	1,084	2.3x	2.3x
Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.MEC	557	1.1x	1.0x
Insteel Industries, Inc.IIIN	524	0.8x	0.9x
Industry Median		2.7x	2.9x
(*) Revenue		60	422
= Enterprise Value		163	1,205
(-) Net Debt		-115	-115
Equity Value		277	1,320
(/) Outstanding shares		126	126
Fair Price		$2	$10

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$6.32

-54.5%