Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 11.1% to 9.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 2, DPO 22, DIO 47). At a 5.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (89% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 3.0% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $10.55 per share, suggesting GO is undervalued by 34.5% at the current price of $7.85.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 97 | 87 | 91 | 97 | 105 | 109 |
| (−) Net Interest | 31 | 28 | 29 | 31 | 34 | 35 |
| (+) D&A | 166 | 185 | 198 | 201 | 207 | 213 |
| EBITDA | 295 | 301 | 318 | 328 | 346 | 356 |
| (−) Tax | 21 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 24 |
| (−) CapEx | 219 | 196 | 203 | 217 | 237 | 244 |
| (−) ΔWC | 51 | -29 | 10 | 17 | 25 | 26 |
| Free Cash Flow (FCFF) | 4 | 115 | 85 | 73 | 61 | 63 |
| Terminal Value | 3,161 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.0% | |||||
| Long-term Growth Rate | 3.0% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 4 | 107 | 75 | 62 | 49 | 2,477 |
| Enterprise Value | 2,774 | |||||
| Projection Period | 297 | 10.7% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 2,477 | 89.3% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 1,740 | |||||
| Equity Value | 1,034 | |||||
| (/) Outstanding Shares | 98 | |||||
| Fair Price | $10.55 | |||||
| WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $41 | $97 | $160440536242405664 | $0 | $0 |
| 4.0% | $12 | $21 | $38 | $91 | $0 |
| 5.0% | $2 | $5 | $11 | $19 | $36 |
| 6.0% | $0 | $0 | $1 | $4 | $9 |
| 7.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Current price: $7.85. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 11.1% to 4.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 2, DPO 22, DIO 47). At a 5.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (85% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 3.0% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $17.55 per share, suggesting GO is undervalued by 123.6% at the current price of $7.85.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 97 | 87 | 91 | 97 | 105 | 114 | 123 | 132 | 140 | 146 | 150 |
| (−) Net Interest | 31 | 28 | 29 | 31 | 34 | 37 | 40 | 43 | 45 | 47 | 48 |
| (+) D&A | 166 | 185 | 198 | 201 | 207 | 214 | 222 | 238 | 257 | 276 | 284 |
| EBITDA | 295 | 301 | 318 | 328 | 346 | 365 | 385 | 413 | 441 | 468 | 483 |
| (−) Tax | 21 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 30 | 32 | 33 |
| (−) CapEx | 219 | 196 | 203 | 217 | 237 | 256 | 277 | 297 | 313 | 327 | 337 |
| (−) ΔWC | 51 | -29 | 10 | 17 | 25 | 24 | 27 | 25 | 21 | 17 | 18 |
| Free Cash Flow (FCFF) | 4 | 115 | 85 | 73 | 61 | 61 | 54 | 63 | 76 | 93 | 95 |
| Terminal Value | 4,765 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.0% | ||||||||||
| Long-term Growth Rate | 3.0% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 4 | 107 | 75 | 62 | 49 | 46 | 39 | 43 | 50 | 58 | 2,925 |
| Enterprise Value | 3,460 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | 535 | 15.5% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 2,925 | 84.5% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 1,740 | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 1,720 | ||||||||||
| (/) Outstanding Shares | 98 | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $17.55 | ||||||||||
| WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $61 | $133 | $208572006772356928 | $3 | $3 |
| 4.0% | $21 | $32 | $54 | $119 | $1 |
| 5.0% | $8 | $12 | $18 | $28 | $47 |
| 6.0% | $1 | $3 | $6 | $9 | $15 |
| 7.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1 | $4 |
Current price: $7.85. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 11.1% to 9.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 2, DPO 22, DIO 47). At a 5.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (88% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $6.83 per share, suggesting GO is fairly valued by 13.0% at the current price of $7.85.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 97 | 87 | 91 | 97 | 105 | 108 |
| (−) Net Interest | 31 | 28 | 29 | 31 | 34 | 35 |
| (+) D&A | 166 | 185 | 198 | 201 | 207 | 212 |
| EBITDA | 295 | 301 | 318 | 328 | 346 | 355 |
| (−) Tax | 21 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 23 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 219 | 196 | 203 | 217 | 237 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 51 | -29 | 10 | 17 | 25 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 4 | 115 | 85 | 73 | 61 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 7.6x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 2,696 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.00% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 4 | 107 | 75 | 62 | 49 | 2,112 |
| Enterprise Value | 2,409 | |||||
| Projection Period | 297 | 12.3% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 2,112 | 87.7% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 1,740 | |||||
| Equity Value | 669 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 98M | |||||
| Fair Price | $7 | -13.0% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 3.6x | 5.6x | 7.6x | 9.6x | 11.6x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $0 | $3 | $9 | $15 | $22 |
| 4.0% | $0 | $2 | $8 | $14 | $20 |
| 5.0% | $0 | $1 | $7 | $13 | $18 |
| 6.0% | $0 | $0 | $6 | $11 | $17 |
| 7.0% | $0 | $0 | $5 | $10 | $15 |
Current price: $7.85. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 11.1% to 4.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 2, DPO 22, DIO 47). At a 5.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (81% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.6x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $10.56 per share, suggesting GO is undervalued by 34.6% at the current price of $7.85.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 97 | 87 | 91 | 97 | 105 | 114 | 123 | 132 | 140 | 146 | 149 |
| (−) Net Interest | 31 | 28 | 29 | 31 | 34 | 37 | 40 | 43 | 45 | 47 | 48 |
| (+) D&A | 166 | 185 | 198 | 201 | 207 | 214 | 222 | 238 | 257 | 276 | 283 |
| EBITDA | 295 | 301 | 318 | 328 | 346 | 365 | 385 | 413 | 441 | 468 | 480 |
| (−) Tax | 21 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 30 | 32 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 219 | 196 | 203 | 217 | 237 | 256 | 277 | 297 | 313 | 327 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 51 | -29 | 10 | 17 | 25 | 24 | 27 | 25 | 21 | 17 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 4 | 115 | 85 | 73 | 61 | 61 | 54 | 63 | 76 | 93 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 7.6x | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | 3,650 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.00% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 4 | 107 | 75 | 62 | 49 | 46 | 39 | 43 | 50 | 58 | 2,241 |
| Enterprise Value | 2,775 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | 535 | 19.3% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 2,241 | 80.7% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 1,740 | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 1,035 | ||||||||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 98M | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $11 | +34.6% | |||||||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 3.6x | 5.6x | 7.6x | 9.6x | 11.6x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $1 | $9 | $16 | $23 | $31 |
| 4.0% | $0 | $6 | $13 | $20 | $26 |
| 5.0% | $0 | $5 | $11 | $17 | $23 |
| 6.0% | $0 | $3 | $8 | $14 | $19 |
| 7.0% | $0 | $1 | $6 | $11 | $16 |
Current price: $7.85. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) has a fair value of $17.05 based on 9 comparable companies in the Grocery Stores industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.GO | 769 | 0.5x | 0.5x |
| Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 3,213 | 4.2x | 2.6x |
| Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. | 1,830 | 0.8x | 0.8x |
| Weis Markets, Inc. | 1,749 | 0.4x | 0.3x |
| Newell Brands Inc. | 1,734 | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Ingles Markets, Incorporated | 1,622 | 0.3x | 0.4x |
| Universal Corporation | 1,340 | 0.7x | 0.1x |
| Phoenix Education Partners, Inc | 1,097 | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Coursera, Inc. | 958 | 0.2x | 0.2x |
| Vital Farms, Inc. | 426 | 0.6x | 0.7x |
| Industry Median | 0.7x | 0.7x | |
| (*) Revenue | 4,689 | 4,663 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 3,475 | 3,348 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,740 | 1,740 | |
| Equity Value | 1,734 | 1,607 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 98 | 98 | |
| Fair Price | $18 | $16 | |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.