Geron Corporation

GERN

HealthcareBiotechnologyNASDAQ

$1.39

Market Cap: $891.71M

Geron Corporation (GERN) Valuation Summary

Updated May 10, 2026 13:26

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$16.39 – $32.60	$21.94	+1478.1%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$36.08 – $82.63	$51.69	+3619.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$3.28 – $5.57	$3.33	+139.8%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Geron Corporation (GERN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$51.69

Market Price

$1.39

Upside / Downside

+3619.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -29.3% to a target of 13.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.4%, Geron Corporation (GERN) has an intrinsic value of $51.69 per share (range: $36.08 – $82.63).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-29.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

9.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

87.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

192.0%

D&A/Revenue

128.0%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	234	27.1%	-20.8%	-49	-49	299	(229)	-1,586	1,607	1,536
2027	333	42.5%	-12.3%	-41	-41	426	(362)	-662	686	600
2028	486	45.9%	-3.8%	-18	-18	622	(578)	-1,020	1,045	835
2029	697	43.5%	4.7%	33	26	893	(902)	-1,408	1,424	1,040
2030	919	31.7%	13.2%	121	96	1,176	(1,285)	-1,474	1,462	975
2031	1,194	30.0%	13.2%	158	124	1,529	(1,795)	-1,837	1,695	1,034
2032	1,553	30.0%	13.2%	205	162	1,987	(2,495)	-2,388	2,042	1,139
2033	2,018	30.0%	13.2%	266	210	2,583	(3,454)	-3,104	2,444	1,246
2034	2,624	30.0%	13.2%	346	273	3,358	(4,764)	-4,035	2,903	1,353
2035	3,411	30.0%	13.2%	450	355	4,366	(6,549)	-5,246	3,419	1,456

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)11,214

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)54,999

PV of Terminal Value23,421

Enterprise Value34,635

(–) Net Debt172

Equity Value34,462

(÷) Shares Outstanding667

Fair Value per Share$51.69

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
7.4%	$76	$77	$79	$81	$83
8.4%	$60	$62	$63	$64	$66
9.4%	$50	$51	$52	$53	$54
10.4%	$42	$43	$44	$45	$45
11.4%	$36	$37	$38	$38	$39

Current price: $1.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -666.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Geron Corporation (GERN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$21.94

Market Price

$1.39

Upside / Downside

+1478.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-29.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

9.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

87.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

192.0%

D&A/Revenue

128.0%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	234	27.1%	-20.8%	-49	-49	299	(254)	-1,586	1,583	1,513
2027	333	42.5%	-12.3%	-41	-41	426	(431)	-662	617	539
2028	486	45.9%	-3.8%	-18	-18	622	(731)	-1,020	893	714
2029	697	43.5%	4.7%	33	26	893	(1,193)	-1,408	1,133	827
2030	919	31.7%	13.2%	121	96	1,176	(1,764)	-1,474	982	656

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)4,249

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)15,803

PV of Terminal Value10,547

Enterprise Value14,796

(–) Net Debt172

Equity Value14,623

(÷) Shares Outstanding667

Fair Value per Share$21.94

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
7.4%	$30	$31	$31	$32	$33
8.4%	$25	$25	$26	$26	$27
9.4%	$21	$22	$22	$22	$23
10.4%	$18	$19	$19	$19	$20
11.4%	$16	$17	$17	$17	$18

Current price: $1.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$3.33

Market Price

$1.39

Upside / Downside

+139.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Geron Corporation (GERN) has a fair value of $3.33 based on 4 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Geron CorporationGERN	927	6.0x	4.7x
Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc.DAWN	2,225	12.8x	8.4x
Vir Biotechnology, Inc.VIR	1,495	21.1x	10.5x
Arvinas, Inc.ARVN	647	2.0x	5.4x
LENZ Therapeutics, Inc.LENZ	315	15.2x	11.7x
Industry Median		14.0x	9.4x
(*) Revenue		184	234
= Enterprise Value		2,580	2,208
(-) Net Debt		172	172
Equity Value		2,408	2,036
(/) Outstanding shares		667	667
Fair Price		$4	$3

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$3.33

+139.8%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$16.39 – $32.60

$21.94

+1478.1%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$36.08 – $82.63

$51.69

+3619.0%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$3.28 – $5.57

$3.33

+139.8%

DCF Analysis

Geron Corporation (GERN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$51.69

Market Price

$1.39

Upside / Downside

+3619.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-29.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

9.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

87.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

192.0%

D&A/Revenue

128.0%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	234	27.1%	-20.8%	-49	-49	299	(229)	-1,586	1,607	1,536
2027	333	42.5%	-12.3%	-41	-41	426	(362)	-662	686	600
2028	486	45.9%	-3.8%	-18	-18	622	(578)	-1,020	1,045	835
2029	697	43.5%	4.7%	33	26	893	(902)	-1,408	1,424	1,040
2030	919	31.7%	13.2%	121	96	1,176	(1,285)	-1,474	1,462	975
2031	1,194	30.0%	13.2%	158	124	1,529	(1,795)	-1,837	1,695	1,034
2032	1,553	30.0%	13.2%	205	162	1,987	(2,495)	-2,388	2,042	1,139
2033	2,018	30.0%	13.2%	266	210	2,583	(3,454)	-3,104	2,444	1,246
2034	2,624	30.0%	13.2%	346	273	3,358	(4,764)	-4,035	2,903	1,353
2035	3,411	30.0%	13.2%	450	355	4,366	(6,549)	-5,246	3,419	1,456

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)11,214

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)54,999

PV of Terminal Value23,421

Enterprise Value34,635

(–) Net Debt172

Equity Value34,462

(÷) Shares Outstanding667

Fair Value per Share$51.69

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
7.4%	$76	$77	$79	$81	$83
8.4%	$60	$62	$63	$64	$66
9.4%	$50	$51	$52	$53	$54
10.4%	$42	$43	$44	$45	$45
11.4%	$36	$37	$38	$38	$39

Current price: $1.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$3.33

Market Price

$1.39

Upside / Downside

+139.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Geron Corporation (GERN) has a fair value of $3.33 based on 4 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Geron CorporationGERN	927	6.0x	4.7x
Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc.DAWN	2,225	12.8x	8.4x
Vir Biotechnology, Inc.VIR	1,495	21.1x	10.5x
Arvinas, Inc.ARVN	647	2.0x	5.4x
LENZ Therapeutics, Inc.LENZ	315	15.2x	11.7x
Industry Median		14.0x	9.4x
(*) Revenue		184	234
= Enterprise Value		2,580	2,208
(-) Net Debt		172	172
Equity Value		2,408	2,036
(/) Outstanding shares		667	667
Fair Price		$4	$3

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$3.33

+139.8%