4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc.

FDMT

HealthcareBiotechnologyNASDAQ

$10.14

Market Cap: $530.07M

4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. (FDMT) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 09:53

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$1.73 – $3.34	$2.59	-74.4%
Revenue DCF 10Y	—	N/A	—
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$7.98 – $28.03	$10.38	+2.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. (FDMT) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.59

Market Price

$10.14

Upside / Downside

-74.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -187.2% to a target of 13.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.5%, 4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. (FDMT) has an intrinsic value of $2.59 per share (range: $1.73 – $3.34).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-187.2%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2133.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

5489.7%

D&A/Revenue

3659.8%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	7	-91.9%	-147.2%	-10	-10	252	(193)	-154	203	194
2027	13	92.0%	-107.1%	-14	-14	483	(459)	-152	162	143
2028	39	197.6%	-67.0%	-26	-26	1,439	(1,630)	-626	408	333
2029	118	199.8%	-26.9%	-32	-32	4,312	(5,677)	-1,884	487	366
2030	257	118.4%	13.2%	34	27	9,419	(14,128)	-3,347	-1,336	-925

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)111

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value111

(–) Net Debt-39

Equity Value150

(÷) Shares Outstanding58

Fair Value per Share$2.59

Note:Terminal value is $0 because Year 5 FCFF is negative. The company's operating margin convergence does not fully offset reinvestment needs within 5 years. See the sensitivity matrix for scenarios where the model produces a positive terminal value (higher target margin or lower WACC).

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.5%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2
7.5%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$3
8.5%	$2	$2	$3	$3	$3
9.5%	$3	$3	$3	$3	$3
10.5%	$3	$3	$3	$3	$3

Current price: $10.14. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -2398.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$10.38

Market Price

$10.14

Upside / Downside

+2.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), 4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. (FDMT) has a fair value of $10.38 based on 6 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc.FDMT	587	6.4x	79.7x
KalVista Pharmaceuticals, Inc.KALV	1,369	18.6x	6.9x
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc.LXRX	847	17.6x	25.8x
Prothena Corporation plcPRTA	566	28.2x	3.1x
REGENXBIO Inc.RGNX	538	4.5x	3.0x
ADC Therapeutics S.A.ADCT	445	7.7x	7.7x
Gossamer Bio, Inc.GOSS	77	5.0x	13.7x
Industry Median		12.6x	7.3x
(*) Revenue		85	7
= Enterprise Value		1,075	50
(-) Net Debt		-39	-39
Equity Value		1,114	89
(/) Outstanding shares		58	58
Fair Price		$19	$2

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$10.38

+2.4%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$1.73 – $3.34

$2.59

-74.4%

Revenue DCF 10Y

—

N/A

—

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$7.98 – $28.03

$10.38

+2.4%

DCF Analysis

4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. (FDMT) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.59

Market Price

$10.14

Upside / Downside

-74.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-187.2%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2133.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

5489.7%

D&A/Revenue

3659.8%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	7	-91.9%	-147.2%	-10	-10	252	(193)	-154	203	194
2027	13	92.0%	-107.1%	-14	-14	483	(459)	-152	162	143
2028	39	197.6%	-67.0%	-26	-26	1,439	(1,630)	-626	408	333
2029	118	199.8%	-26.9%	-32	-32	4,312	(5,677)	-1,884	487	366
2030	257	118.4%	13.2%	34	27	9,419	(14,128)	-3,347	-1,336	-925

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)111

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value111

(–) Net Debt-39

Equity Value150

(÷) Shares Outstanding58

Fair Value per Share$2.59

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.5%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2
7.5%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$3
8.5%	$2	$2	$3	$3	$3
9.5%	$3	$3	$3	$3	$3
10.5%	$3	$3	$3	$3	$3

Current price: $10.14. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$10.38

Market Price

$10.14

Upside / Downside

+2.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc.FDMT	587	6.4x	79.7x
KalVista Pharmaceuticals, Inc.KALV	1,369	18.6x	6.9x
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc.LXRX	847	17.6x	25.8x
Prothena Corporation plcPRTA	566	28.2x	3.1x
REGENXBIO Inc.RGNX	538	4.5x	3.0x
ADC Therapeutics S.A.ADCT	445	7.7x	7.7x
Gossamer Bio, Inc.GOSS	77	5.0x	13.7x
Industry Median		12.6x	7.3x
(*) Revenue		85	7
= Enterprise Value		1,075	50
(-) Net Debt		-39	-39
Equity Value		1,114	89
(/) Outstanding shares		58	58
Fair Price		$19	$2

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$10.38

+2.4%