Evolent Health, Inc.

EVH

HealthcareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesNYSE

$4.18

Market Cap: $476.60M

Evolent Health, Inc. (EVH) Valuation Summary

Updated May 10, 2026 21:34

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$1.13 – $145.47	$36.58	+775.1%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$9.99 – $235.98	$67.59	+1517.1%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$11.05 – $164.90	$78.24	+1771.8%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Evolent Health, Inc. (EVH) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$67.59

Market Price

$4.18

Upside / Downside

+1517.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -0.2% to a target of 13.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.3%, Evolent Health, Inc. (EVH) has an intrinsic value of $67.59 per share (range: $9.99 – $235.98).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-0.2%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

7.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

8.8%

D&A/Revenue

5.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	2,488	32.6%	2.5%	61	48	146	(66)	61	67	65
2027	2,873	15.5%	5.1%	148	117	169	(96)	50	139	125
2028	3,258	13.4%	7.8%	255	201	191	(131)	50	211	177
2029	3,824	17.4%	10.5%	402	317	224	(180)	74	288	225
2030	4,402	15.1%	13.2%	581	459	258	(237)	75	404	294
2031	5,154	17.1%	13.2%	680	537	302	(313)	98	429	291
2032	5,889	14.3%	13.2%	777	614	345	(397)	96	466	294
2033	6,563	11.4%	13.2%	866	684	385	(488)	88	493	291
2034	7,129	8.6%	13.2%	940	743	418	(578)	74	509	279
2035	7,544	5.8%	13.2%	995	786	442	(664)	54	511	261

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)2,303

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)12,221

PV of Terminal Value6,255

Enterprise Value8,558

(–) Net Debt838

Equity Value7,720

(÷) Shares Outstanding114

Fair Value per Share$67.59

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
5.3%	$39	$88	$137	$187	$236
6.3%	$25	$59	$92	$125	$159
7.3%	$18	$43	$68	$92	$117
8.3%	$13	$33	$52	$72	$92
9.3%	$10	$26	$42	$58	$74

Current price: $4.18. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 13.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Evolent Health, Inc. (EVH) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$36.58

Market Price

$4.18

Upside / Downside

+775.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-0.2%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

7.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

8.8%

D&A/Revenue

5.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	2,488	32.6%	2.5%	61	48	146	(83)	61	50	48
2027	2,873	15.5%	5.1%	148	117	169	(135)	50	100	90
2028	3,258	13.4%	7.8%	255	201	191	(198)	50	145	121
2029	3,824	17.4%	10.5%	402	317	224	(284)	74	184	143
2030	4,402	15.1%	13.2%	581	459	258	(387)	75	254	185

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)588

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)6,081

PV of Terminal Value4,428

Enterprise Value5,016

(–) Net Debt838

Equity Value4,178

(÷) Shares Outstanding114

Fair Value per Share$36.58

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
5.3%	$8	$43	$77	$111	$145
6.3%	$4	$27	$51	$74	$98
7.3%	$1	$19	$37	$54	$72
8.3%	$-0	$14	$28	$42	$56
9.3%	$-2	$10	$22	$34	$45

Current price: $4.18. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 13.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$78.24

Market Price

$4.18

Upside / Downside

+1771.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Evolent Health, Inc. (EVH) has a fair value of $78.24 based on 8 comparable companies in the Medical - Healthcare Information Services industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Healthcare Information Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Evolent Health, Inc.EVH	477	0.7x	0.5x
AMN Healthcare Services, Inc.AMN	1,120	0.7x	0.6x
Butterfly Network, Inc.BFLY	1,088	9.8x	8.1x
MeiraGTx Holdings plcMGTX	909	11.4x	18.5x
Kura Oncology, Inc.KURA	836	10.5x	6.4x
Nutex Health, Inc.NUTX	814	1.1x	3.5x
HealthStream, Inc.HSTM	702	2.2x	2.3x
Personalis, Inc.PSNL	532	5.7x	6.2x
Myriad Genetics, Inc.MYGN	405	0.6x	0.5x
Industry Median		4.0x	4.9x
(*) Revenue		1,876	2,488
= Enterprise Value		7,475	12,073
(-) Net Debt		838	838
Equity Value		6,637	11,235
(/) Outstanding shares		114	114
Fair Price		$58	$98

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$78.24

+1771.8%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$1.13 – $145.47

$36.58

+775.1%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$9.99 – $235.98

$67.59

+1517.1%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$11.05 – $164.90

$78.24

+1771.8%

DCF Analysis

Evolent Health, Inc. (EVH) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$67.59

Market Price

$4.18

Upside / Downside

+1517.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-0.2%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

7.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

8.8%

D&A/Revenue

5.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	2,488	32.6%	2.5%	61	48	146	(66)	61	67	65
2027	2,873	15.5%	5.1%	148	117	169	(96)	50	139	125
2028	3,258	13.4%	7.8%	255	201	191	(131)	50	211	177
2029	3,824	17.4%	10.5%	402	317	224	(180)	74	288	225
2030	4,402	15.1%	13.2%	581	459	258	(237)	75	404	294
2031	5,154	17.1%	13.2%	680	537	302	(313)	98	429	291
2032	5,889	14.3%	13.2%	777	614	345	(397)	96	466	294
2033	6,563	11.4%	13.2%	866	684	385	(488)	88	493	291
2034	7,129	8.6%	13.2%	940	743	418	(578)	74	509	279
2035	7,544	5.8%	13.2%	995	786	442	(664)	54	511	261

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)2,303

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)12,221

PV of Terminal Value6,255

Enterprise Value8,558

(–) Net Debt838

Equity Value7,720

(÷) Shares Outstanding114

Fair Value per Share$67.59

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
5.3%	$39	$88	$137	$187	$236
6.3%	$25	$59	$92	$125	$159
7.3%	$18	$43	$68	$92	$117
8.3%	$13	$33	$52	$72	$92
9.3%	$10	$26	$42	$58	$74

Current price: $4.18. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 13.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$78.24

Market Price

$4.18

Upside / Downside

+1771.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Healthcare Information Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Evolent Health, Inc.EVH	477	0.7x	0.5x
AMN Healthcare Services, Inc.AMN	1,120	0.7x	0.6x
Butterfly Network, Inc.BFLY	1,088	9.8x	8.1x
MeiraGTx Holdings plcMGTX	909	11.4x	18.5x
Kura Oncology, Inc.KURA	836	10.5x	6.4x
Nutex Health, Inc.NUTX	814	1.1x	3.5x
HealthStream, Inc.HSTM	702	2.2x	2.3x
Personalis, Inc.PSNL	532	5.7x	6.2x
Myriad Genetics, Inc.MYGN	405	0.6x	0.5x
Industry Median		4.0x	4.9x
(*) Revenue		1,876	2,488
= Enterprise Value		7,475	12,073
(-) Net Debt		838	838
Equity Value		6,637	11,235
(/) Outstanding shares		114	114
Fair Price		$58	$98

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$78.24

+1771.8%