The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.

Consumer DefensiveHousehold & Personal ProductsNYSE

$86.20

Market Cap: $31.18B

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 15:15

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$33.15 – $254.91	$64.75	-24.9%
Growth Exit 10Y	$40.06 – $272.84	$73.69	-14.5%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$63.83 – $141.89	$99.61	+15.6%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$57.45 – $138.01	$91.81	+6.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	—	N/A	—
EV/EBITDA	—	N/A	—
EV/Revenue	$56.69 – $125.08	$82.13	-4.7%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	—	N/A	—
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$9.89 – $26.07	$16.16	-81.2%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	—	N/A	—

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$64.75

Market Price

$86.20

Upside / Downside

-24.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 4.8% to 5.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 37, DPO 143, DIO 221). At a 6.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (79% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $64.75 per share, suggesting EL is overvalued by 24.9% at the current price of $86.20.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.69%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,677	1,744	1,822	1,907	2,008	2,058
(−) Net Interest	265	276	288	302	317	325
(+) D&A	1,297	1,413	1,457	1,063	1,156	1,185
EBITDA	3,240	3,432	3,567	3,272	3,481	3,568

(−) Tax	457	476	497	520	548	561
(−) CapEx	1,214	1,262	1,319	1,381	1,453	1,490
(−) ΔWC	248	93	110	120	141	145
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	1,320	1,601	1,642	1,252	1,339	1,372

Terminal Value						32,769
WACC / Discount Rate	6.7%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,278	1,453	1,396	998	1,000	23,708

Enterprise Value	29,833
Projection Period	6,125	20.5%
Terminal Value	23,708	79.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	6,518

Equity Value	23,315
(/) Outstanding Shares	360

Fair Price	$64.75

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.7%	$95	$112	$138	$179	$255
5.7%	$68	$78	$90	$107	$131
6.7%	$52	$58	$65	$74	$85
7.7%	$41	$45	$49	$55	$61
8.7%	$33	$36	$39	$42	$47

Current price: $86.20. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$73.69

Market Price

$86.20

Upside / Downside

-14.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 4.8% to 2.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 37, DPO 143, DIO 221). At a 6.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (66% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $73.69 per share, suggesting EL is fairly valued by 14.5% at the current price of $86.20.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.69%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,677	1,744	1,822	1,907	2,008	1,965	1,944	1,943	1,962	2,001	2,051
(−) Net Interest	265	276	288	302	317	311	307	307	310	316	324
(+) D&A	1,297	1,413	1,457	1,063	1,156	1,326	1,368	1,397	1,414	1,422	1,458
EBITDA	3,240	3,432	3,567	3,272	3,481	3,602	3,619	3,647	3,686	3,739	3,833

(−) Tax	457	476	497	520	548	536	530	530	535	546	559
(−) CapEx	1,214	1,262	1,319	1,381	1,453	1,423	1,408	1,407	1,420	1,448	1,485
(−) ΔWC	248	93	110	120	141	-59	-30	-2	26	55	56
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	1,320	1,601	1,642	1,252	1,339	1,702	1,711	1,712	1,705	1,691	1,733

Terminal Value											41,383
WACC / Discount Rate	6.7%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,278	1,453	1,396	998	1,000	1,192	1,123	1,054	983	914	21,662

Enterprise Value	33,054
Projection Period	11,392	34.5%
Terminal Value	21,662	65.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	6,518

Equity Value	26,536
(/) Outstanding Shares	360

Fair Price	$73.69

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.7%	$112	$130	$156	$197	$273
5.7%	$81	$90	$102	$118	$141
6.7%	$62	$67	$74	$82	$93
7.7%	$49	$53	$56	$61	$67
8.7%	$40	$42	$45	$48	$51

Current price: $86.20. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$99.62

Market Price

$86.20

Upside / Downside

+15.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 4.8% to 5.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 37, DPO 143, DIO 221). At a 6.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (86% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $99.61 per share, suggesting EL is undervalued by 15.6% at the current price of $86.20.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.69%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

14.05x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,677	1,744	1,822	1,907	2,008	2,058
(−) Net Interest	265	276	288	302	317	325
(+) D&A	1,297	1,413	1,457	1,063	1,156	1,185
EBITDA	3,240	3,432	3,567	3,272	3,481	3,568

(−) Tax	457	476	497	520	548	—
(−) CapEx	1,214	1,262	1,319	1,381	1,453	—
(−) ΔWC	248	93	110	120	141	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	1,320	1,601	1,642	1,252	1,339	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						14.1x
Terminal Value						50,125
WACC / Discount Rate	6.69%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,278	1,453	1,396	998	1,000	36,265

Enterprise Value	42,390
Projection Period	6,125	14.4%
Terminal Value	36,265	85.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	6,518
Equity Value	35,872
(÷) Outstanding Shares	360M
Fair Price	$100	+15.6%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	10.0x	12.0x	14.0x	16.0x	18.0x
4.7%	$79	$95	$110	$126	$142
5.7%	$75	$90	$105	$120	$135
6.7%	$71	$85	$100	$114	$128
7.7%	$67	$81	$95	$108	$122
8.7%	$64	$77	$90	$103	$116

Current price: $86.20. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$91.81

Market Price

$86.20

Upside / Downside

+6.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 4.8% to 2.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 37, DPO 143, DIO 221). At a 6.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (71% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.1x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $91.81 per share, suggesting EL is fairly valued by 6.5% at the current price of $86.20.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.69%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

14.05x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,677	1,744	1,822	1,907	2,008	1,965	1,944	1,943	1,962	2,001	2,051
(−) Net Interest	265	276	288	302	317	311	307	307	310	316	324
(+) D&A	1,297	1,413	1,457	1,063	1,156	1,326	1,368	1,397	1,414	1,422	1,458
EBITDA	3,240	3,432	3,567	3,272	3,481	3,602	3,619	3,647	3,686	3,739	3,833

(−) Tax	457	476	497	520	548	536	530	530	535	546	—
(−) CapEx	1,214	1,262	1,319	1,381	1,453	1,423	1,408	1,407	1,420	1,448	—
(−) ΔWC	248	93	110	120	141	-59	-30	-2	26	55	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	1,320	1,601	1,642	1,252	1,339	1,702	1,711	1,712	1,705	1,691	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											14.1x
Terminal Value											53,851
WACC / Discount Rate	6.69%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,278	1,453	1,396	998	1,000	1,192	1,123	1,054	983	914	28,188

Enterprise Value	39,580
Projection Period	11,392	28.8%
Terminal Value	28,188	71.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	6,518
Equity Value	33,062
(÷) Outstanding Shares	360M
Fair Price	$92	+6.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	10.0x	12.0x	14.0x	16.0x	18.0x
4.7%	$84	$98	$111	$125	$138
5.7%	$76	$89	$101	$113	$125
6.7%	$70	$81	$92	$103	$114
7.7%	$63	$73	$83	$94	$104
8.7%	$57	$67	$76	$85	$94

Current price: $86.20. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$82.13

Market Price

$86.20

Upside / Downside

-4.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) has a fair value of $82.13 based on 8 comparable companies in the Household & Personal Products industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Household & Personal Products

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.EL	31,041	2.6x	2.5x
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.KDP	39,225	3.3x	3.6x
The Hershey CompanyHSY	37,717	3.6x	3.4x
Archer-Daniels-Midland CompanyADM	37,429	0.6x	0.5x
Sysco CorporationSYY	34,850	0.6x	0.6x
Kenvue Inc.KVUE	33,771	2.7x	2.6x
Kimberly-Clark CorporationKMB	32,633	2.3x	2.2x
The Kraft Heinz CompanyKHC	28,411	1.9x	1.9x
Church & Dwight Co., Inc.CHD	22,123	3.9x	3.9x
Industry Median		2.5x	2.4x
(*) Revenue		14,288	14,967
= Enterprise Value		35,707	36,478
(-) Net Debt		6,518	6,518
Equity Value		29,189	29,960
(/) Outstanding shares		360	360
Fair Price		$81	$83

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$82.13

-4.7%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$16.16

Market Price

$86.20

Upside / Downside

-81.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 6.7% and normalized earnings of $825.1M, the company has a fair value of $16.16 per share. The EPV range is $9.89 – $26.07 based on WACC sensitivity (5.2% – 8.2%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	825	825	825
(/) WACC	8.2%	6.7%	5.2%
Enterprise Value	10,078	12,339	15,907
(-) Net debt	6,518	6,518	6,518
Equity Value	3,560	5,821	9,389
(/) Outstanding shares	360	360	360
Fair Price	$9.89	$16.16	$26.07

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.