Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC-PC) has a fair value of $22.89 based on 6 comparable companies in the REIT - Mortgage industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ellington Financial Inc.EFC-PC | 2,545 | 21.5x | 18.1x |
| LXP Industrial Trust | 3,089 | 28.8x | — |
| Curbline Properties Corp. | 2,942 | 75.4x | 137.0x |
| Four Corners Property Trust, Inc. | 2,762 | 23.1x | 23.3x |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | 2,187 | 5.3x | 4.5x |
| Dynex Capital, Inc. | 2,032 | 5.4x | — |
| MFA Financial, Inc. | 1,011 | 5.9x | 6.3x |
| Industry Median | 14.5x | 14.8x | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 147 | 140 | |
| Equity Value | 2,128 | 2,423 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 99 | 99 | |
| Fair Price | $21 | $24 | |
Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0% plus 6.7% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $47.36 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $1.89. The current PEG ratio is 0.41.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 25.9% |
| Dividend Yield | +6.7% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 25.0% |
| Fair P/E | 25.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $1.89 |
| Fair Value | $47.36 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $1.19 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $1.89 | +59.2% | 4 |
| FY2027E | $1.89 | -0.5% | 4 |
2Y Forward EPS CAGR: 25.9%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $133.5M | $2.55 | — |
| FY2022 | $-70.0M | $-1.41 | -155.3% |
| FY2023 | $84.1M | $0.88 | — |
| FY2024 | $145.9M | $1.34 | +52.3% |
| FY2025 | $146.9M | $1.19 | -11.2% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -17.3%
Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 16.5% and projected dividend growth of 5.8%, the fair value is $15.38 per share. The DDM range is $12.45 – $19.47 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.
| Year | DPS | Payout Ratio | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1.85 | 125.0% | -1.0% |
| 2024 | $1.86 | 112.1% | -13.7% |
| 2023 | $2.16 | 177.5% | +6.5% |
| 2022 | $2.03 | — | +16.6% |
| 2021 | $1.74 | 64.2% | — |
| Year | Projected DPS | Growth | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.95 | 5.8% | 0.8586 | $1.68 |
| 2027 | $2.07 | 5.8% | 0.7372 | $1.52 |
| 2028 | $2.19 | 5.8% | 0.6330 | $1.38 |
| 2029 | $2.31 | 5.8% | 0.5435 | $1.26 |
| 2030 | $2.45 | 5.8% | 0.4667 | $1.14 |
| Terminal Value | $2.51 DPS | 2.5% | $8.39 |
Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.
| Ke \ Growth | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.5% | $17 | $17 | $18 | $19 | $19 |
| 15.5% | $15 | $16 | $17 | $17 | $18 |
| 16.5% | $14 | $15 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| 17.5% | $13 | $14 | $14 | $15 | $15 |
| 18.5% | $12 | $13 | $13 | $14 | $14 |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.