Dawson Geophysical Company

DWSN

EnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesNASDAQ

$3.47

Market Cap: $107.75M

Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 27, 2026 22:21

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.63 – $12.72	$1.97	-45.3%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$2.79 – $14.69	$4.94	+36.8%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$1.65 – $12.41	$5.09	+40.9%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$4.94

Market Price

$3.47

Upside / Downside

+42.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -6.1% to a target of 15.7% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.1%, Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN) has an intrinsic value of $4.94 per share (range: $2.79 – $14.69).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-6.1%

Target Operating Margin

15.7%

WACC

7.1%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

33.4%

D&A/Revenue

22.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	154	107.1%	-1.8%	-3	-3	34	(9)	3	20	19
2026	154	0.0%	2.6%	4	3	34	(14)	0	24	21
2027	171	11.4%	7.0%	12	9	38	(21)	1	26	22
2028	145	-15.2%	11.3%	16	13	32	(22)	-2	25	20
2029	155	6.9%	15.7%	24	19	35	(28)	1	25	18
2030	151	-2.5%	15.7%	24	19	34	(32)	-0	21	14
2031	149	-1.4%	15.7%	23	18	33	(36)	-0	16	10
2032	148	-0.3%	15.7%	23	18	33	(41)	-0	11	7
2033	150	0.8%	15.7%	23	19	33	(45)	0	6	4
2034	152	1.9%	15.7%	24	19	34	(51)	0	2	1

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)135

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)42

PV of Terminal Value22

Enterprise Value157

(–) Net Debt4

Equity Value153

(÷) Shares Outstanding31

Fair Value per Share$4.94

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	9.7%	12.7%	15.7%	18.7%	21.7%
5.1%	$3	$4	$6	$10	$15
6.1%	$3	$4	$5	$8	$11
7.1%	$3	$4	$5	$7	$9
8.1%	$3	$3	$5	$6	$8
9.1%	$3	$3	$4	$6	$7

Current price: $3.47. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 6.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.97

Market Price

$3.47

Upside / Downside

-43.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-6.1%

Target Operating Margin

15.7%

WACC

7.1%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

33.4%

D&A/Revenue

22.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	154	107.1%	-1.8%	-3	-3	34	(14)	3	15	14
2026	154	0.0%	2.6%	4	3	34	(23)	0	14	13
2027	171	11.4%	7.0%	12	9	38	(36)	1	10	8
2028	145	-15.2%	11.3%	16	13	32	(40)	-2	7	6
2029	155	6.9%	15.7%	24	19	35	(52)	1	1	1

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)42

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)31

PV of Terminal Value23

Enterprise Value65

(–) Net Debt4

Equity Value61

(÷) Shares Outstanding31

Fair Value per Share$1.97

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	9.7%	12.7%	15.7%	18.7%	21.7%
5.1%	$1	$1	$3	$8	$13
6.1%	$1	$1	$2	$6	$9
7.1%	$1	$1	$2	$4	$7
8.1%	$1	$1	$2	$4	$6
9.1%	$1	$1	$2	$3	$5

Current price: $3.47. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 6.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$4.74

Market Price

$3.47

Upside / Downside

+36.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN) has a fair value of $4.74 based on 9 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Dawson Geophysical CompanyDWSN	108	1.6x	0.8x
Smart Sand, Inc.SND	233	0.7x	1.0x
Drilling Tools International Corp.DTI	113	1.0x	1.1x
Leishen Energy Holding Co., Ltd.LSE	88	1.7x	—
PEDEVCO Corp.PED	77	1.9x	2.4x
KLX Energy Services Holdings, Inc.KLXE	69	0.6x	0.5x
Spruce Power Holding CorporationSPRU	65	6.2x	54.2x
Indonesia Energy Corporation LimitedINDO	48	16.7x	9.5x
U.S. Energy Corp.USEG	36	5.2x	1.5x
Maxeon Solar Technologies, Ltd.MAXN	19	0.6x	0.3x
Industry Median		1.7x	1.3x
(*) Revenue		76	154
= Enterprise Value		128	198
(-) Net Debt		16	16
Equity Value		112	182
(/) Outstanding shares		31	31
Fair Price		$4	$6

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$4.74

+36.5%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.63 – $12.72

$1.97

-45.3%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$2.79 – $14.69

$4.94

+36.8%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$1.65 – $12.41

$5.09

+40.9%

DCF Analysis

Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$4.94

Market Price

$3.47

Upside / Downside

+42.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-6.1%

Target Operating Margin

15.7%

WACC

7.1%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

33.4%

D&A/Revenue

22.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	154	107.1%	-1.8%	-3	-3	34	(9)	3	20	19
2026	154	0.0%	2.6%	4	3	34	(14)	0	24	21
2027	171	11.4%	7.0%	12	9	38	(21)	1	26	22
2028	145	-15.2%	11.3%	16	13	32	(22)	-2	25	20
2029	155	6.9%	15.7%	24	19	35	(28)	1	25	18
2030	151	-2.5%	15.7%	24	19	34	(32)	-0	21	14
2031	149	-1.4%	15.7%	23	18	33	(36)	-0	16	10
2032	148	-0.3%	15.7%	23	18	33	(41)	-0	11	7
2033	150	0.8%	15.7%	23	19	33	(45)	0	6	4
2034	152	1.9%	15.7%	24	19	34	(51)	0	2	1

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)135

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)42

PV of Terminal Value22

Enterprise Value157

(–) Net Debt4

Equity Value153

(÷) Shares Outstanding31

Fair Value per Share$4.94

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	9.7%	12.7%	15.7%	18.7%	21.7%
5.1%	$3	$4	$6	$10	$15
6.1%	$3	$4	$5	$8	$11
7.1%	$3	$4	$5	$7	$9
8.1%	$3	$3	$5	$6	$8
9.1%	$3	$3	$4	$6	$7

Current price: $3.47. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 6.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$4.74

Market Price

$3.47

Upside / Downside

+36.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Dawson Geophysical CompanyDWSN	108	1.6x	0.8x
Smart Sand, Inc.SND	233	0.7x	1.0x
Drilling Tools International Corp.DTI	113	1.0x	1.1x
Leishen Energy Holding Co., Ltd.LSE	88	1.7x	—
PEDEVCO Corp.PED	77	1.9x	2.4x
KLX Energy Services Holdings, Inc.KLXE	69	0.6x	0.5x
Spruce Power Holding CorporationSPRU	65	6.2x	54.2x
Indonesia Energy Corporation LimitedINDO	48	16.7x	9.5x
U.S. Energy Corp.USEG	36	5.2x	1.5x
Maxeon Solar Technologies, Ltd.MAXN	19	0.6x	0.3x
Industry Median		1.7x	1.3x
(*) Revenue		76	154
= Enterprise Value		128	198
(-) Net Debt		16	16
Equity Value		112	182
(/) Outstanding shares		31	31
Fair Price		$4	$6

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$4.74

+36.5%