Denali Therapeutics Inc.

DNLI

HealthcareBiotechnologyNASDAQ

$19.62

Market Cap: $3.11B

Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) Valuation Summary

Updated May 10, 2026 20:06

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.13 – $5.46	$0.29	-98.5%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.80 – $23.84	$5.78	-70.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$26.22 – $72.94	$32.28	+64.5%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$5.78

Market Price

$19.62

Upside / Downside

-70.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -59.5% to a target of 13.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.5%, Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) has an intrinsic value of $5.78 per share (range: $0.80 – $23.84).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-59.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

12.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

16.1%

D&A/Revenue

10.8%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2024	430	30.0%	-45.0%	-193	-193	46	(56)	2	-204	-196
2025	559	30.0%	-30.4%	-170	-170	60	(74)	-1	-183	-162
2026	41	-92.7%	-15.9%	-6	-6	4	(6)	5	-13	-11
2027	110	170.8%	-1.4%	-1	-1	12	(15)	-1	-4	-3
2028	434	294.5%	13.2%	57	45	47	(62)	-3	33	23
2029	565	30.1%	13.2%	74	59	61	(83)	-1	38	24
2030	896	58.6%	13.2%	118	93	96	(135)	-3	58	34
2031	1,165	30.0%	13.2%	154	121	125	(180)	-3	70	38
2032	1,514	30.0%	13.2%	200	158	163	(239)	-4	85	43
2033	1,957	29.3%	13.2%	258	204	211	(316)	-5	103	47

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-163

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,921

PV of Terminal Value882

Enterprise Value719

(–) Net Debt-75

Equity Value794

(÷) Shares Outstanding137

Fair Value per Share$5.78

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.5%	$-1	$5	$12	$18	$24
7.5%	$-1	$3	$8	$13	$17
8.5%	$-1	$2	$6	$9	$13
9.5%	$-1	$1	$4	$7	$10
10.5%	$-2	$1	$3	$6	$8

Current price: $19.62. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -1.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.29

Market Price

$19.62

Upside / Downside

-98.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-59.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

12.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

16.1%

D&A/Revenue

10.8%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2024	430	30.0%	-45.0%	-193	-193	46	(57)	2	-206	-197
2025	559	30.0%	-30.4%	-170	-170	60	(78)	-1	-187	-165
2026	41	-92.7%	-15.9%	-6	-6	4	(6)	5	-14	-11
2027	110	170.8%	-1.4%	-1	-1	12	(17)	-1	-6	-4
2028	434	294.5%	13.2%	57	45	47	(70)	-3	25	17

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-361

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)470

PV of Terminal Value325

Enterprise Value-36

(–) Net Debt-75

Equity Value39

(÷) Shares Outstanding137

Fair Value per Share$0.29

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.5%	$-2	$0	$2	$4	$5
7.5%	$-2	$-0	$1	$2	$4
8.5%	$-2	$-1	$0	$1	$2
9.5%	$-2	$-1	$-0	$1	$2
10.5%	$-2	$-1	$-0	$0	$1

Current price: $19.62. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -1.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$32.28

Market Price

$19.62

Upside / Downside

+64.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) has a fair value of $32.28 based on 7 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Denali Therapeutics Inc.DNLI	2,695	7.9x	64.5x
ImmunityBio, Inc.IBRX	8,749	84.2x	45.5x
Liquidia CorporationLQDA	3,727	23.6x	6.4x
Beam Therapeutics Inc.BEAM	3,321	23.8x	57.3x
Arcus Biosciences, Inc.RCUS	2,495	9.6x	25.0x
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.AGIO	1,653	30.1x	13.5x
Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.RXRX	1,462	10.7x	13.0x
Viridian Therapeutics, Inc.VRDN	1,442	18.1x	22.7x
Industry Median		23.6x	22.7x
(*) Revenue		331	41
= Enterprise Value		7,797	923
(-) Net Debt		-75	-75
Equity Value		7,872	998
(/) Outstanding shares		137	137
Fair Price		$57	$7

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$32.28

+64.5%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.13 – $5.46

$0.29

-98.5%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.80 – $23.84

$5.78

-70.5%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$26.22 – $72.94

$32.28

+64.5%

DCF Analysis

Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$5.78

Market Price

$19.62

Upside / Downside

-70.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-59.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

12.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

16.1%

D&A/Revenue

10.8%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2024	430	30.0%	-45.0%	-193	-193	46	(56)	2	-204	-196
2025	559	30.0%	-30.4%	-170	-170	60	(74)	-1	-183	-162
2026	41	-92.7%	-15.9%	-6	-6	4	(6)	5	-13	-11
2027	110	170.8%	-1.4%	-1	-1	12	(15)	-1	-4	-3
2028	434	294.5%	13.2%	57	45	47	(62)	-3	33	23
2029	565	30.1%	13.2%	74	59	61	(83)	-1	38	24
2030	896	58.6%	13.2%	118	93	96	(135)	-3	58	34
2031	1,165	30.0%	13.2%	154	121	125	(180)	-3	70	38
2032	1,514	30.0%	13.2%	200	158	163	(239)	-4	85	43
2033	1,957	29.3%	13.2%	258	204	211	(316)	-5	103	47

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-163

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,921

PV of Terminal Value882

Enterprise Value719

(–) Net Debt-75

Equity Value794

(÷) Shares Outstanding137

Fair Value per Share$5.78

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.5%	$-1	$5	$12	$18	$24
7.5%	$-1	$3	$8	$13	$17
8.5%	$-1	$2	$6	$9	$13
9.5%	$-1	$1	$4	$7	$10
10.5%	$-2	$1	$3	$6	$8

Current price: $19.62. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -1.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$32.28

Market Price

$19.62

Upside / Downside

+64.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) has a fair value of $32.28 based on 7 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Denali Therapeutics Inc.DNLI	2,695	7.9x	64.5x
ImmunityBio, Inc.IBRX	8,749	84.2x	45.5x
Liquidia CorporationLQDA	3,727	23.6x	6.4x
Beam Therapeutics Inc.BEAM	3,321	23.8x	57.3x
Arcus Biosciences, Inc.RCUS	2,495	9.6x	25.0x
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.AGIO	1,653	30.1x	13.5x
Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.RXRX	1,462	10.7x	13.0x
Viridian Therapeutics, Inc.VRDN	1,442	18.1x	22.7x
Industry Median		23.6x	22.7x
(*) Revenue		331	41
= Enterprise Value		7,797	923
(-) Net Debt		-75	-75
Equity Value		7,872	998
(/) Outstanding shares		137	137
Fair Price		$57	$7

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$32.28

+64.5%