HF Sinclair Corporation

DINO

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingNYSE

$72.43

Market Cap: $13.06B

HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 07:22

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$140.57 – $630.05	$224.17	+209.5%
Growth Exit 10Y	$145.69 – $609.32	$225.86	+211.8%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$82.33 – $192.58	$132.76	+83.3%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$105.89 – $232.66	$159.68	+120.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$40.63 – $57.59	$52.33	-27.8%
EV/EBITDA	$58.88 – $122.17	$67.25	-7.2%
EV/Revenue	$260.29 – $642.56	$456.59	+530.4%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$106.22 – $106.22	$106.22	+46.7%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$143.12 – $227.18	$176.20	+143.3%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$45.98 – $121.17	$71.02	-1.9%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$224.17

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

+209.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project HF Sinclair Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 14.7% to -5.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 19, DPO 31, DIO 41). At a 7.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (76% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $224.17 per share, suggesting DINO is undervalued by 209.5% at the current price of $72.43.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.04%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	3,302	3,085	3,050	2,283	2,154	2,208
(−) Net Interest	192	180	178	133	125	129
(+) D&A	528	493	507	547	541	555
EBITDA	4,023	3,757	3,735	2,963	2,820	2,891

(−) Tax	624	583	577	432	407	417
(−) CapEx	636	594	587	439	415	425
(−) ΔWC	484	-154	-24	-544	-91	-94
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	2,278	2,734	2,595	2,636	2,090	2,142

Terminal Value						47,182
WACC / Discount Rate	7.0%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	2,202	2,469	2,189	2,077	1,539	33,578

Enterprise Value	44,054
Projection Period	10,476	23.8%
Terminal Value	33,578	76.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,254

Equity Value	41,800
(/) Outstanding Shares	186

Fair Price	$224.17

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.0%	$300	$342	$400	$487	$630
6.0%	$234	$257	$287	$327	$383
7.0%	$192	$206	$224	$246	$275
8.0%	$162	$172	$184	$198	$215
9.0%	$141	$148	$156	$165	$176

Current price: $72.43. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$225.86

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

+211.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project HF Sinclair Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 14.7% to 4.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 19, DPO 31, DIO 41). At a 7.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (62% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $225.86 per share, suggesting DINO is undervalued by 211.8% at the current price of $72.43.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.04%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	3,302	3,085	3,050	2,283	2,154	2,343	2,522	2,685	2,828	2,945	3,019
(−) Net Interest	192	180	178	133	125	137	147	156	165	172	176
(+) D&A	528	493	507	547	541	534	497	476	461	482	495
EBITDA	4,023	3,757	3,735	2,963	2,820	3,014	3,166	3,317	3,454	3,599	3,689

(−) Tax	624	583	577	432	407	443	477	508	535	557	571
(−) CapEx	636	594	587	439	415	451	485	517	544	567	581
(−) ΔWC	484	-154	-24	-544	-91	134	127	116	101	83	85
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	2,278	2,734	2,595	2,636	2,090	1,986	2,077	2,177	2,274	2,392	2,452

Terminal Value											54,014
WACC / Discount Rate	7.0%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	2,202	2,469	2,189	2,077	1,539	1,366	1,335	1,307	1,275	1,254	27,356

Enterprise Value	44,368
Projection Period	17,013	38.3%
Terminal Value	27,356	61.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,254

Equity Value	42,114
(/) Outstanding Shares	186

Fair Price	$225.86

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.0%	$314	$352	$404	$481	$609
6.0%	$244	$264	$290	$324	$371
7.0%	$199	$211	$226	$244	$267
8.0%	$168	$176	$185	$196	$209
9.0%	$146	$151	$157	$164	$172

Current price: $72.43. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$132.80

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

+83.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project HF Sinclair Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 14.7% to -5.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 19, DPO 31, DIO 41). At a 7.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (61% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $132.76 per share, suggesting DINO is undervalued by 83.3% at the current price of $72.43.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.04%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

8.04x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	3,302	3,085	3,050	2,283	2,154	2,208
(−) Net Interest	192	180	178	133	125	129
(+) D&A	528	493	507	547	541	555
EBITDA	4,023	3,757	3,735	2,963	2,820	2,891

(−) Tax	624	583	577	432	407	—
(−) CapEx	636	594	587	439	415	—
(−) ΔWC	484	-154	-24	-544	-91	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	2,278	2,734	2,595	2,636	2,090	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						8.0x
Terminal Value						23,242
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	2,202	2,469	2,189	2,077	1,539	16,540

Enterprise Value	27,016
Projection Period	10,476	38.8%
Terminal Value	16,540	61.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,254
Equity Value	24,762
(÷) Outstanding Shares	186M
Fair Price	$133	+83.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	4.0x	6.0x	8.0x	10.0x	12.0x
5.0%	$96	$120	$144	$168	$193
6.0%	$92	$115	$138	$161	$185
7.0%	$89	$111	$133	$155	$177
8.0%	$85	$106	$128	$149	$170
9.0%	$82	$102	$123	$143	$163

Current price: $72.43. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$159.72

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

+120.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project HF Sinclair Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 14.7% to 4.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 19, DPO 31, DIO 41). At a 7.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (47% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $159.68 per share, suggesting DINO is undervalued by 120.5% at the current price of $72.43.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.04%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

8.04x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	3,302	3,085	3,050	2,283	2,154	2,343	2,522	2,685	2,828	2,945	3,019
(−) Net Interest	192	180	178	133	125	137	147	156	165	172	176
(+) D&A	528	493	507	547	541	534	497	476	461	482	495
EBITDA	4,023	3,757	3,735	2,963	2,820	3,014	3,166	3,317	3,454	3,599	3,689

(−) Tax	624	583	577	432	407	443	477	508	535	557	—
(−) CapEx	636	594	587	439	415	451	485	517	544	567	—
(−) ΔWC	484	-154	-24	-544	-91	134	127	116	101	83	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	2,278	2,734	2,595	2,636	2,090	1,986	2,077	2,177	2,274	2,392	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											8.0x
Terminal Value											29,662
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	2,202	2,469	2,189	2,077	1,539	1,366	1,335	1,307	1,275	1,254	15,023

Enterprise Value	32,035
Projection Period	17,013	53.1%
Terminal Value	15,023	46.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,254
Equity Value	29,781
(÷) Outstanding Shares	186M
Fair Price	$160	+120.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	4.0x	6.0x	8.0x	10.0x	12.0x
5.0%	$136	$160	$184	$208	$233
6.0%	$127	$149	$171	$193	$215
7.0%	$120	$140	$160	$180	$200
8.0%	$112	$131	$149	$167	$186
9.0%	$106	$123	$139	$156	$173

Current price: $72.43. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$52.33

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

-27.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) has a fair value of $52.33 based on 10 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry.

P/E Valuation — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
HF Sinclair CorporationDINO	13,506	23.3x	13.0x
Ovintiv Inc.OVV	16,385	12.1x	7.5x
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.PAA	15,324	13.1x	13.6x
DT Midstream, Inc.DTM	14,568	32.2x	30.0x
Permian Resources CorporationPR	14,372	15.7x	10.9x
APA CorporationAPA	12,567	8.9x	6.2x
Antero Resources CorporationAR	11,136	17.7x	8.1x
Antero Midstream CorporationAM	9,937	24.3x	18.9x
Range Resources CorporationRRC	9,628	14.9x	9.6x
Sunoco LPSUN	9,276	18.5x	8.3x
National Fuel Gas CompanyNFG	7,557	14.0x	17.5x
Industry Median		15.3x	10.2x
(*) Profit after tax		579	1,041
Equity Value		8,859	10,657
(/) Outstanding shares		186	186
Fair Price		$48	$57

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$52.33

-27.8%

Fair Value

$67.25

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

-7.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) has a fair value of $67.25 based on 10 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
HF Sinclair CorporationDINO	13,506	8.5x	7.4x
Ovintiv Inc.OVV	16,385	7.1x	6.7x
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.PAA	15,324	7.5x	6.8x
DT Midstream, Inc.DTM	14,568	17.3x	16.2x
Permian Resources CorporationPR	14,372	4.8x	4.0x
APA CorporationAPA	12,567	3.1x	3.0x
Antero Resources CorporationAR	11,136	9.3x	6.9x
Antero Midstream CorporationAM	9,937	13.8x	13.6x
Range Resources CorporationRRC	9,628	8.2x	6.9x
Sunoco LPSUN	9,276	13.5x	7.8x
National Fuel Gas CompanyNFG	7,557	7.9x	8.3x
Industry Median		8.0x	6.9x
(*) EBITDA		1,858	2,130
= Enterprise Value		14,932	14,655
(-) Net Debt		2,254	2,254
Equity Value		12,678	12,401
(/) Outstanding shares		186	186
Fair Price		$68	$67

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$67.25

-7.2%

Fair Value

$456.59

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

+530.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) has a fair value of $456.59 based on 10 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
HF Sinclair CorporationDINO	13,506	0.6x	0.5x
Ovintiv Inc.OVV	16,385	2.7x	2.6x
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.PAA	15,324	0.5x	0.4x
DT Midstream, Inc.DTM	14,568	14.4x	13.5x
Permian Resources CorporationPR	14,372	3.5x	2.9x
APA CorporationAPA	12,567	1.9x	1.8x
Antero Resources CorporationAR	11,136	3.2x	2.4x
Antero Midstream CorporationAM	9,937	10.3x	10.1x
Range Resources CorporationRRC	9,628	3.6x	3.1x
Sunoco LPSUN	9,276	1.0x	0.6x
National Fuel Gas CompanyNFG	7,557	4.5x	4.8x
Industry Median		3.4x	2.7x
(*) Revenue		26,869	30,804
= Enterprise Value		90,556	84,228
(-) Net Debt		2,254	2,254
Equity Value		88,302	81,974
(/) Outstanding shares		186	186
Fair Price		$474	$440

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$456.59

+530.4%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$106.22

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

+46.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 18.2% plus 2.9% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $106.22 based on NTM EPS (FY2027) of $5.82. The current PEG ratio is 0.68.

PEG Ratio

0.68Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 12.4 ÷ (15.4% + 2.9%) = 0.68

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG highly applicable

PEG is most informative for high-growth companies — the PEG sweet spot.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	15.4%
Dividend Yield	+2.9%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	18.2%
Fair P/E	18.2x
NTM EPS (FY2027)	$5.82
Fair Value	$106.22

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$3.11	—	—
FY2027E	$5.82	+87.2%	7
FY2028E	$4.78	-18.0%	5

3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 15.4%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$558.3M	$3.39	—
FY2022	$2.9B	$14.28	+321.2%
FY2023	$1.6B	$8.29	-41.9%
FY2024	$177.0M	$0.91	-89.0%
FY2025	$579.0M	$3.11	+241.8%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -2.1%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$176.20

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

+143.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 7.0% and normalized earnings of $2.5B, the company has a fair value of $176.20 per share. The EPV range is $143.12 – $227.18 based on WACC sensitivity (5.5% – 8.5%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	2,472	2,472	2,472
(/) WACC	8.5%	7.0%	5.5%
Enterprise Value	28,942	35,108	44,614
(-) Net debt	2,254	2,254	2,254
Equity Value	26,688	32,854	42,360
(/) Outstanding shares	186	186	186
Fair Price	$143.12	$176.20	$227.18

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$71.02

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

-1.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 7.5% and projected dividend growth of 15.0%, the fair value is $71.02 per share. The DDM range is $45.98 – $121.17 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$2.02

Dividend Yield

2.88%

Payout Ratio

64.9%

Dividend Coverage

1.54x

FCF Payout Ratio43.4%

DPS CAGR (4Y)54.4%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$2.02	64.9%	+0.3%
2024	$2.01	218.1%	+12.1%
2023	$1.79	21.4%	+41.9%
2022	$1.26	8.8%	+256.2%
2021	$0.35	10.3%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$2.32	15.0%	0.9306	$2.16
2027	$2.67	15.0%	0.8661	$2.31
2028	$3.07	15.0%	0.8060	$2.47
2029	$3.53	15.0%	0.7501	$2.65
2030	$4.06	15.0%	0.6981	$2.83
Terminal Value	$4.16 DPS	2.5%		$58.61

PV of Projected Dividends$12.42

PV of Terminal Value$58.61

Fair Value per Share$71.02

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	13.0%	14.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%
5.5%	$111	$116	$121	$121	$121
6.5%	$83	$86	$90	$90	$90
7.5%	$65	$68	$71	$71	$71
8.5%	$54	$56	$59	$59	$59
9.5%	$46	$48	$50	$50	$50

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 07:22

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$140.57 – $630.05	$224.17	+209.5%
Growth Exit 10Y	$145.69 – $609.32	$225.86	+211.8%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$82.33 – $192.58	$132.76	+83.3%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$105.89 – $232.66	$159.68	+120.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$40.63 – $57.59	$52.33	-27.8%
EV/EBITDA	$58.88 – $122.17	$67.25	-7.2%
EV/Revenue	$260.29 – $642.56	$456.59	+530.4%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$106.22 – $106.22	$106.22	+46.7%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$143.12 – $227.18	$176.20	+143.3%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$45.98 – $121.17	$71.02	-1.9%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$224.17

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

+209.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.04%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	3,302	3,085	3,050	2,283	2,154	2,208
(−) Net Interest	192	180	178	133	125	129
(+) D&A	528	493	507	547	541	555
EBITDA	4,023	3,757	3,735	2,963	2,820	2,891

(−) Tax	624	583	577	432	407	417
(−) CapEx	636	594	587	439	415	425
(−) ΔWC	484	-154	-24	-544	-91	-94
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	2,278	2,734	2,595	2,636	2,090	2,142

Terminal Value						47,182
WACC / Discount Rate	7.0%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	2,202	2,469	2,189	2,077	1,539	33,578

Enterprise Value	44,054
Projection Period	10,476	23.8%
Terminal Value	33,578	76.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,254

Equity Value	41,800
(/) Outstanding Shares	186

Fair Price	$224.17

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.0%	$300	$342	$400	$487	$630
6.0%	$234	$257	$287	$327	$383
7.0%	$192	$206	$224	$246	$275
8.0%	$162	$172	$184	$198	$215
9.0%	$141	$148	$156	$165	$176

Current price: $72.43. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$225.86

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

+211.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.04%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	3,302	3,085	3,050	2,283	2,154	2,343	2,522	2,685	2,828	2,945	3,019
(−) Net Interest	192	180	178	133	125	137	147	156	165	172	176
(+) D&A	528	493	507	547	541	534	497	476	461	482	495
EBITDA	4,023	3,757	3,735	2,963	2,820	3,014	3,166	3,317	3,454	3,599	3,689

(−) Tax	624	583	577	432	407	443	477	508	535	557	571
(−) CapEx	636	594	587	439	415	451	485	517	544	567	581
(−) ΔWC	484	-154	-24	-544	-91	134	127	116	101	83	85
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	2,278	2,734	2,595	2,636	2,090	1,986	2,077	2,177	2,274	2,392	2,452

Terminal Value											54,014
WACC / Discount Rate	7.0%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	2,202	2,469	2,189	2,077	1,539	1,366	1,335	1,307	1,275	1,254	27,356

Enterprise Value	44,368
Projection Period	17,013	38.3%
Terminal Value	27,356	61.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,254

Equity Value	42,114
(/) Outstanding Shares	186

Fair Price	$225.86

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.0%	$314	$352	$404	$481	$609
6.0%	$244	$264	$290	$324	$371
7.0%	$199	$211	$226	$244	$267
8.0%	$168	$176	$185	$196	$209
9.0%	$146	$151	$157	$164	$172

Current price: $72.43. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$132.80

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

+83.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project HF Sinclair Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 14.7% to -5.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 19, DPO 31, DIO 41). At a 7.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (61% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $132.76 per share, suggesting DINO is undervalued by 83.3% at the current price of $72.43.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.04%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

8.04x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	3,302	3,085	3,050	2,283	2,154	2,208
(−) Net Interest	192	180	178	133	125	129
(+) D&A	528	493	507	547	541	555
EBITDA	4,023	3,757	3,735	2,963	2,820	2,891

(−) Tax	624	583	577	432	407	—
(−) CapEx	636	594	587	439	415	—
(−) ΔWC	484	-154	-24	-544	-91	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	2,278	2,734	2,595	2,636	2,090	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						8.0x
Terminal Value						23,242
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	2,202	2,469	2,189	2,077	1,539	16,540

Enterprise Value	27,016
Projection Period	10,476	38.8%
Terminal Value	16,540	61.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,254
Equity Value	24,762
(÷) Outstanding Shares	186M
Fair Price	$133	+83.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	4.0x	6.0x	8.0x	10.0x	12.0x
5.0%	$96	$120	$144	$168	$193
6.0%	$92	$115	$138	$161	$185
7.0%	$89	$111	$133	$155	$177
8.0%	$85	$106	$128	$149	$170
9.0%	$82	$102	$123	$143	$163

Current price: $72.43. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$159.72

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

+120.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project HF Sinclair Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 14.7% to 4.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 19, DPO 31, DIO 41). At a 7.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (47% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $159.68 per share, suggesting DINO is undervalued by 120.5% at the current price of $72.43.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.04%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

8.04x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	3,302	3,085	3,050	2,283	2,154	2,343	2,522	2,685	2,828	2,945	3,019
(−) Net Interest	192	180	178	133	125	137	147	156	165	172	176
(+) D&A	528	493	507	547	541	534	497	476	461	482	495
EBITDA	4,023	3,757	3,735	2,963	2,820	3,014	3,166	3,317	3,454	3,599	3,689

(−) Tax	624	583	577	432	407	443	477	508	535	557	—
(−) CapEx	636	594	587	439	415	451	485	517	544	567	—
(−) ΔWC	484	-154	-24	-544	-91	134	127	116	101	83	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	2,278	2,734	2,595	2,636	2,090	1,986	2,077	2,177	2,274	2,392	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											8.0x
Terminal Value											29,662
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	2,202	2,469	2,189	2,077	1,539	1,366	1,335	1,307	1,275	1,254	15,023

Enterprise Value	32,035
Projection Period	17,013	53.1%
Terminal Value	15,023	46.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,254
Equity Value	29,781
(÷) Outstanding Shares	186M
Fair Price	$160	+120.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	4.0x	6.0x	8.0x	10.0x	12.0x
5.0%	$136	$160	$184	$208	$233
6.0%	$127	$149	$171	$193	$215
7.0%	$120	$140	$160	$180	$200
8.0%	$112	$131	$149	$167	$186
9.0%	$106	$123	$139	$156	$173

Current price: $72.43. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$52.33

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

-27.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

P/E Valuation — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
HF Sinclair CorporationDINO	13,506	23.3x	13.0x
Ovintiv Inc.OVV	16,385	12.1x	7.5x
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.PAA	15,324	13.1x	13.6x
DT Midstream, Inc.DTM	14,568	32.2x	30.0x
Permian Resources CorporationPR	14,372	15.7x	10.9x
APA CorporationAPA	12,567	8.9x	6.2x
Antero Resources CorporationAR	11,136	17.7x	8.1x
Antero Midstream CorporationAM	9,937	24.3x	18.9x
Range Resources CorporationRRC	9,628	14.9x	9.6x
Sunoco LPSUN	9,276	18.5x	8.3x
National Fuel Gas CompanyNFG	7,557	14.0x	17.5x
Industry Median		15.3x	10.2x
(*) Profit after tax		579	1,041
Equity Value		8,859	10,657
(/) Outstanding shares		186	186
Fair Price		$48	$57

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$52.33

-27.8%

Fair Value

$67.25

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

-7.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
HF Sinclair CorporationDINO	13,506	8.5x	7.4x
Ovintiv Inc.OVV	16,385	7.1x	6.7x
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.PAA	15,324	7.5x	6.8x
DT Midstream, Inc.DTM	14,568	17.3x	16.2x
Permian Resources CorporationPR	14,372	4.8x	4.0x
APA CorporationAPA	12,567	3.1x	3.0x
Antero Resources CorporationAR	11,136	9.3x	6.9x
Antero Midstream CorporationAM	9,937	13.8x	13.6x
Range Resources CorporationRRC	9,628	8.2x	6.9x
Sunoco LPSUN	9,276	13.5x	7.8x
National Fuel Gas CompanyNFG	7,557	7.9x	8.3x
Industry Median		8.0x	6.9x
(*) EBITDA		1,858	2,130
= Enterprise Value		14,932	14,655
(-) Net Debt		2,254	2,254
Equity Value		12,678	12,401
(/) Outstanding shares		186	186
Fair Price		$68	$67

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$67.25

-7.2%

Fair Value

$456.59

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

+530.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
HF Sinclair CorporationDINO	13,506	0.6x	0.5x
Ovintiv Inc.OVV	16,385	2.7x	2.6x
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.PAA	15,324	0.5x	0.4x
DT Midstream, Inc.DTM	14,568	14.4x	13.5x
Permian Resources CorporationPR	14,372	3.5x	2.9x
APA CorporationAPA	12,567	1.9x	1.8x
Antero Resources CorporationAR	11,136	3.2x	2.4x
Antero Midstream CorporationAM	9,937	10.3x	10.1x
Range Resources CorporationRRC	9,628	3.6x	3.1x
Sunoco LPSUN	9,276	1.0x	0.6x
National Fuel Gas CompanyNFG	7,557	4.5x	4.8x
Industry Median		3.4x	2.7x
(*) Revenue		26,869	30,804
= Enterprise Value		90,556	84,228
(-) Net Debt		2,254	2,254
Equity Value		88,302	81,974
(/) Outstanding shares		186	186
Fair Price		$474	$440

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$456.59

+530.4%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$106.22

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

+46.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

PEG Ratio

0.68Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 12.4 ÷ (15.4% + 2.9%) = 0.68

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG highly applicable

PEG is most informative for high-growth companies — the PEG sweet spot.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	15.4%
Dividend Yield	+2.9%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	18.2%
Fair P/E	18.2x
NTM EPS (FY2027)	$5.82
Fair Value	$106.22

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$3.11	—	—
FY2027E	$5.82	+87.2%	7
FY2028E	$4.78	-18.0%	5

3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 15.4%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$558.3M	$3.39	—
FY2022	$2.9B	$14.28	+321.2%
FY2023	$1.6B	$8.29	-41.9%
FY2024	$177.0M	$0.91	-89.0%
FY2025	$579.0M	$3.11	+241.8%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -2.1%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$176.20

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

+143.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	2,472	2,472	2,472
(/) WACC	8.5%	7.0%	5.5%
Enterprise Value	28,942	35,108	44,614
(-) Net debt	2,254	2,254	2,254
Equity Value	26,688	32,854	42,360
(/) Outstanding shares	186	186	186
Fair Price	$143.12	$176.20	$227.18

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$71.02

Market Price

$72.43

Upside / Downside

-1.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$2.02

Dividend Yield

2.88%

Payout Ratio

64.9%

Dividend Coverage

1.54x

FCF Payout Ratio43.4%

DPS CAGR (4Y)54.4%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$2.02	64.9%	+0.3%
2024	$2.01	218.1%	+12.1%
2023	$1.79	21.4%	+41.9%
2022	$1.26	8.8%	+256.2%
2021	$0.35	10.3%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$2.32	15.0%	0.9306	$2.16
2027	$2.67	15.0%	0.8661	$2.31
2028	$3.07	15.0%	0.8060	$2.47
2029	$3.53	15.0%	0.7501	$2.65
2030	$4.06	15.0%	0.6981	$2.83
Terminal Value	$4.16 DPS	2.5%		$58.61

PV of Projected Dividends$12.42

PV of Terminal Value$58.61

Fair Value per Share$71.02

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	13.0%	14.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%
5.5%	$111	$116	$121	$121	$121
6.5%	$83	$86	$90	$90	$90
7.5%	$65	$68	$71	$71	$71
8.5%	$54	$56	$59	$59	$59
9.5%	$46	$48	$50	$50	$50