Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Dauch Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 79.9% to -10.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 49, DPO 51, DIO 32). At a 5.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (96% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 4.0% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $252.72 per share, suggesting DCH is undervalued by 3706.0% at the current price of $6.64.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 77 | 81 | 81 | 47 | 42 | 44 |
| (−) Net Interest | 349 | 365 | 365 | 212 | 190 | 197 |
| (+) D&A | 210 | 250 | 295 | 336 | 333 | 346 |
| EBITDA | 637 | 696 | 741 | 595 | 565 | 587 |
| (−) Tax | 39 | 40 | 40 | 23 | 21 | 22 |
| (−) CapEx | 380 | 398 | 398 | 231 | 207 | 215 |
| (−) ΔWC | 447 | 42 | 0 | -408 | -58 | -61 |
| Free Cash Flow (FCFF) | -229 | 215 | 303 | 748 | 395 | 411 |
| Terminal Value | 41,090 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.0% | |||||
| Long-term Growth Rate | 4.0% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -224 | 200 | 268 | 631 | 317 | 32,195 |
| Enterprise Value | 33,388 | |||||
| Projection Period | 1,192 | 3.6% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 32,195 | 96.4% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 3,465 | |||||
| Equity Value | 29,922 | |||||
| (/) Outstanding Shares | 118 | |||||
| Fair Price | $252.72 | |||||
| WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $862861678205834112 | $41 | $41 | $41 | $41 |
| 4.0% | $266 | $552 | $38 | $38 | $38 |
| 5.0% | $117 | $162 | $253 | $525 | $35 |
| 6.0% | $67 | $84 | $110 | $153 | $240 |
| 7.0% | $42 | $51 | $63 | $79 | $104 |
Current price: $6.64. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Dauch Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 79.9% to 3.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 49, DPO 51, DIO 32). At a 5.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (87% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 4.0% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $100.10 per share, suggesting DCH is undervalued by 1407.5% at the current price of $6.64.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 77 | 81 | 81 | 47 | 42 | 43 | 45 | 46 | 48 | 49 | 51 |
| (−) Net Interest | 349 | 365 | 365 | 212 | 190 | 196 | 202 | 208 | 214 | 221 | 230 |
| (+) D&A | 210 | 250 | 295 | 336 | 333 | 323 | 289 | 254 | 220 | 220 | 229 |
| EBITDA | 637 | 696 | 741 | 595 | 565 | 562 | 536 | 508 | 482 | 490 | 510 |
| (−) Tax | 39 | 40 | 40 | 23 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 25 |
| (−) CapEx | 380 | 398 | 398 | 231 | 207 | 213 | 220 | 227 | 234 | 241 | 250 |
| (−) ΔWC | 447 | 42 | 0 | -408 | -58 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 18 |
| Free Cash Flow (FCFF) | -229 | 215 | 303 | 748 | 395 | 311 | 277 | 242 | 207 | 208 | 216 |
| Terminal Value | 21,582 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.0% | ||||||||||
| Long-term Growth Rate | 4.0% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -224 | 200 | 268 | 631 | 317 | 238 | 202 | 168 | 137 | 131 | 13,250 |
| Enterprise Value | 15,317 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | 2,067 | 13.5% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 13,250 | 86.5% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 3,465 | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 11,851 | ||||||||||
| (/) Outstanding Shares | 118 | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $100.10 | ||||||||||
| WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $390941797562571008 | $17 | $17 | $17 | $17 |
| 4.0% | $112 | $235 | $14 | $14 | $14 |
| 5.0% | $44 | $63 | $100 | $212 | $11 |
| 6.0% | $21 | $28 | $38 | $55 | $89 |
| 7.0% | $10 | $13 | $17 | $24 | $33 |
Current price: $6.64. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Dauch Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 79.9% to -10.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 49, DPO 51, DIO 32). At a 5.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (78% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.3x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $16.35 per share, suggesting DCH is undervalued by 146.2% at the current price of $6.64.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 77 | 81 | 81 | 47 | 42 | 43 |
| (−) Net Interest | 349 | 365 | 365 | 212 | 190 | 195 |
| (+) D&A | 210 | 250 | 295 | 336 | 333 | 341 |
| EBITDA | 637 | 696 | 741 | 595 | 565 | 579 |
| (−) Tax | 39 | 40 | 40 | 23 | 21 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 380 | 398 | 398 | 231 | 207 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 447 | 42 | 0 | -408 | -58 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -229 | 215 | 303 | 748 | 395 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 9.3x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 5,371 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.00% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -224 | 200 | 268 | 631 | 317 | 4,208 |
| Enterprise Value | 5,401 | |||||
| Projection Period | 1,192 | 22.1% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 4,208 | 77.9% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 3,465 | |||||
| Equity Value | 1,935 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 118M | |||||
| Fair Price | $16 | +146.1% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 5.3x | 7.3x | 9.3x | 11.3x | 13.3x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $4 | $12 | $21 | $29 | $38 |
| 4.0% | $2 | $10 | $18 | $26 | $35 |
| 5.0% | $1 | $9 | $16 | $24 | $32 |
| 6.0% | $0 | $7 | $14 | $22 | $29 |
| 7.0% | $0 | $5 | $12 | $19 | $26 |
Current price: $6.64. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Dauch Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 79.9% to 3.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 49, DPO 51, DIO 32). At a 5.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (58% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.3x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $12.36 per share, suggesting DCH is undervalued by 86.1% at the current price of $6.64.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 77 | 81 | 81 | 47 | 42 | 43 | 45 | 46 | 48 | 49 | 50 |
| (−) Net Interest | 349 | 365 | 365 | 212 | 190 | 196 | 202 | 208 | 214 | 221 | 226 |
| (+) D&A | 210 | 250 | 295 | 336 | 333 | 323 | 289 | 254 | 220 | 220 | 226 |
| EBITDA | 637 | 696 | 741 | 595 | 565 | 562 | 536 | 508 | 482 | 490 | 502 |
| (−) Tax | 39 | 40 | 40 | 23 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 24 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 380 | 398 | 398 | 231 | 207 | 213 | 220 | 227 | 234 | 241 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 447 | 42 | 0 | -408 | -58 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -229 | 215 | 303 | 748 | 395 | 311 | 277 | 242 | 207 | 208 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 9.3x | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | 4,661 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.00% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -224 | 200 | 268 | 631 | 317 | 238 | 202 | 168 | 137 | 131 | 2,861 |
| Enterprise Value | 4,929 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | 2,067 | 41.9% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 2,861 | 58.1% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 3,465 | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 1,463 | ||||||||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 118M | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $12 | +86.1% | |||||||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 5.3x | 7.3x | 9.3x | 11.3x | 13.3x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $7 | $13 | $19 | $26 | $32 |
| 4.0% | $4 | $10 | $16 | $21 | $27 |
| 5.0% | $2 | $7 | $12 | $18 | $23 |
| 6.0% | $0 | $5 | $9 | $14 | $19 |
| 7.0% | $0 | $2 | $7 | $11 | $15 |
Current price: $6.64. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Dauch Corporation (DCH) has a fair value of $47.18 based on 7 comparable companies in the Auto - Parts industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/EBITDA | Forward EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dauch CorporationDCH | 786 | 6.1x | 3.4x |
| XPEL, Inc. | 1,213 | 15.3x | 17.4x |
| Douglas Dynamics, Inc. | 1,044 | 14.1x | 14.4x |
| BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 897 | 10.6x | 11.0x |
| Standard Motor Products, Inc. | 876 | 6.5x | 6.5x |
| Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | 704 | 9.3x | 9.3x |
| Cars.com Inc. | 666 | 5.8x | 5.7x |
| Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc. | 547 | 7.9x | 8.0x |
| Industry Median | 9.3x | 9.3x | |
| (*) EBITDA | 696 | 1,251 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 6,454 | 11,647 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,465 | 3,465 | |
| Equity Value | 2,989 | 8,182 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 118 | 118 | |
| Fair Price | $25 | $69 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Dauch Corporation (DCH) has a fair value of $73.00 based on 9 comparable companies in the Auto - Parts industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dauch CorporationDCH | 786 | 0.7x | 0.4x |
| XPEL, Inc. | 1,213 | 2.5x | 2.8x |
| Douglas Dynamics, Inc. | 1,044 | 1.9x | 2.0x |
| BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 897 | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Standard Motor Products, Inc. | 876 | 0.8x | 0.8x |
| Aeva Technologies, Inc. | 854 | 48.9x | 26.9x |
| Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | 704 | 0.5x | 0.5x |
| Cars.com Inc. | 666 | 1.5x | 1.5x |
| Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc. | 547 | 0.6x | 0.6x |
| SES AI Corporation | 336 | 15.0x | 9.6x |
| Industry Median | 1.5x | 1.5x | |
| (*) Revenue | 5,837 | 10,502 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 8,702 | 15,516 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,465 | 3,465 | |
| Equity Value | 5,236 | 12,050 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 118 | 118 | |
| Fair Price | $44 | $102 | |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.