CVR Energy, Inc.

CVI

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingNYSE

$34.39

Market Cap: $3.46B

CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 28, 2026 22:22

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$36.98 – $239.42	$67.63	+107.1%
Growth Exit 10Y	$38.76 – $227.56	$67.76	+107.5%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$25.72 – $72.41	$47.08	+44.2%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$30.10 – $77.86	$50.39	+54.3%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$4.31 – $14.94	$10.10	-69.1%
EV/EBITDA	$19.98 – $86.69	$40.51	+24.1%
EV/Revenue	$180.82 – $242.75	$221.95	+579.8%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$25.05 – $25.05	$25.05	-23.3%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$21.38 – $40.93	$29.00	-11.2%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$19.57 – $49.67	$29.02	-11.1%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$67.63

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

+96.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project CVR Energy, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.8% to 2.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 13, DPO 23, DIO 25). At a 6.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (80% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $67.63 per share, suggesting CVI is undervalued by 96.7% at the current price of $34.39.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.80%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	294	283	287	318	327	336
(−) Net Interest	81	78	79	87	90	92
(+) D&A	240	233	220	209	209	215
EBITDA	615	594	586	615	627	642

(−) Tax	0	0	0	0	0	0
(−) CapEx	214	206	209	232	239	245
(−) ΔWC	11	-11	4	32	10	10
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	390	399	373	351	378	388

Terminal Value						9,031
WACC / Discount Rate	6.8%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	378	362	316	279	282	6,501

Enterprise Value	8,117
Projection Period	1,616	19.9%
Terminal Value	6,501	80.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,320

Equity Value	6,797
(/) Outstanding Shares	101

Fair Price	$67.63

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.8%	$96	$113	$137	$174	$239
5.8%	$71	$80	$92	$107	$130
6.8%	$55	$61	$68	$76	$87
7.8%	$45	$48	$53	$58	$64
8.8%	$37	$40	$42	$46	$50

Current price: $34.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$67.76

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

+97.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project CVR Energy, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.8% to 2.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 13, DPO 23, DIO 25). At a 6.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (65% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $67.76 per share, suggesting CVI is undervalued by 97.0% at the current price of $34.39.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.80%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	294	283	287	318	327	328	331	335	342	350	359
(−) Net Interest	81	78	79	87	90	90	91	92	94	96	99
(+) D&A	240	233	220	209	209	220	225	232	239	242	249
EBITDA	615	594	586	615	627	638	647	659	675	689	706

(−) Tax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
(−) CapEx	214	206	209	232	239	239	241	244	249	255	262
(−) ΔWC	11	-11	4	32	10	1	3	5	7	9	9
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	390	399	373	351	378	398	403	410	419	425	436

Terminal Value											10,142
WACC / Discount Rate	6.8%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	378	362	316	279	282	277	263	251	240	228	5,255

Enterprise Value	8,130
Projection Period	2,874	35.4%
Terminal Value	5,255	64.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,320

Equity Value	6,810
(/) Outstanding Shares	101

Fair Price	$67.76

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.8%	$100	$115	$136	$169	$228
5.8%	$74	$82	$92	$105	$124
6.8%	$58	$62	$68	$75	$84
7.8%	$47	$50	$53	$57	$62
8.8%	$39	$41	$43	$45	$48

Current price: $34.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$47.06

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

+36.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project CVR Energy, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.8% to 2.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 13, DPO 23, DIO 25). At a 6.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (73% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $47.08 per share, suggesting CVI is undervalued by 36.9% at the current price of $34.39.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.80%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.59x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	294	283	287	318	327	336
(−) Net Interest	81	78	79	87	90	92
(+) D&A	240	233	220	209	209	215
EBITDA	615	594	586	615	627	642

(−) Tax	0	0	0	0	0	—
(−) CapEx	214	206	209	232	239	—
(−) ΔWC	11	-11	4	32	10	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	390	399	373	351	378	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						9.6x
Terminal Value						6,159
WACC / Discount Rate	6.80%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	378	362	316	279	282	4,434

Enterprise Value	6,050
Projection Period	1,616	26.7%
Terminal Value	4,434	73.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,320
Equity Value	4,730
(÷) Outstanding Shares	101M
Fair Price	$47	+36.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.6x	7.6x	9.6x	11.6x	13.6x
4.8%	$32	$42	$52	$62	$72
5.8%	$30	$40	$50	$59	$69
6.8%	$29	$38	$47	$56	$65
7.8%	$27	$36	$45	$54	$62
8.8%	$26	$34	$42	$51	$59

Current price: $34.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$50.38

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

+46.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project CVR Energy, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.8% to 2.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 13, DPO 23, DIO 25). At a 6.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (55% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.6x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $50.39 per share, suggesting CVI is undervalued by 46.5% at the current price of $34.39.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.80%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.59x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	294	283	287	318	327	328	331	335	342	350	359
(−) Net Interest	81	78	79	87	90	90	91	92	94	96	99
(+) D&A	240	233	220	209	209	220	225	232	239	242	249
EBITDA	615	594	586	615	627	638	647	659	675	689	706

(−) Tax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
(−) CapEx	214	206	209	232	239	239	241	244	249	255	—
(−) ΔWC	11	-11	4	32	10	1	3	5	7	9	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	390	399	373	351	378	398	403	410	419	425	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											9.6x
Terminal Value											6,771
WACC / Discount Rate	6.80%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	378	362	316	279	282	277	263	251	240	228	3,509

Enterprise Value	6,383
Projection Period	2,874	45.0%
Terminal Value	3,509	55.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,320
Equity Value	5,063
(÷) Outstanding Shares	101M
Fair Price	$50	+46.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.6x	7.6x	9.6x	11.6x	13.6x
4.8%	$43	$51	$60	$69	$78
5.8%	$39	$47	$55	$63	$71
6.8%	$36	$43	$50	$58	$65
7.8%	$33	$39	$46	$53	$59
8.8%	$30	$36	$42	$48	$54

Current price: $34.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$9.51

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

-72.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI) has a fair value of $9.51 based on 7 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry.

P/E Valuation — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
CVR Energy, Inc.CVI	3,456	127.4x	37.2x
Valaris LimitedVAL	7,059	7.4x	24.3x
California Resources CorporationCRC	5,911	16.1x	13.4x
Murphy Oil CorporationMUR	5,738	55.6x	11.3x
Magnolia Oil & Gas CorporationMGY	5,444	16.8x	11.0x
Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.SEI	5,343	112.8x	128.1x
Enphase Energy, Inc.ENPH	4,520	26.6x	16.3x
Valvoline Inc.VVV	4,122	19.7x	21.2x
Industry Median		19.7x	16.3x
(*) Profit after tax		27	93
Equity Value		533	1,379
(/) Outstanding shares		101	101
Fair Price		$5	$14

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$9.51

-72.3%

Fair Value

$42.80

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

+24.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI) has a fair value of $42.80 based on 7 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
CVR Energy, Inc.CVI	3,456	8.4x	8.0x
Valaris LimitedVAL	7,059	9.6x	9.6x
California Resources CorporationCRC	5,911	4.8x	4.5x
Murphy Oil CorporationMUR	5,738	6.1x	5.3x
Magnolia Oil & Gas CorporationMGY	5,444	6.3x	5.4x
Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.SEI	5,343	28.0x	56.4x
Enphase Energy, Inc.ENPH	4,520	18.2x	21.4x
Valvoline Inc.VVV	4,122	11.2x	11.9x
Industry Median		9.6x	9.6x
(*) EBITDA		570	599
= Enterprise Value		5,468	5,775
(-) Net Debt		1,320	1,320
Equity Value		4,148	4,455
(/) Outstanding shares		101	101
Fair Price		$41	$44

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$42.80

+24.4%

Fair Value

$223.43

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

+549.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI) has a fair value of $223.43 based on 9 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
CVR Energy, Inc.CVI	3,456	0.7x	0.6x
Valaris LimitedVAL	7,059	3.2x	3.2x
Transocean Ltd.RIG	6,133	2.7x	3.1x
California Resources CorporationCRC	5,911	2.0x	1.8x
Murphy Oil CorporationMUR	5,738	2.8x	2.4x
Magnolia Oil & Gas CorporationMGY	5,444	4.3x	3.6x
Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.SEI	5,343	9.8x	19.6x
PBF Energy Inc.PBF	4,859	0.2x	0.2x
Enphase Energy, Inc.ENPH	4,520	3.6x	4.2x
Valvoline Inc.VVV	4,122	3.4x	3.5x
Industry Median		3.2x	3.2x
(*) Revenue		7,162	7,524
= Enterprise Value		23,125	24,423
(-) Net Debt		1,320	1,320
Equity Value		21,805	23,103
(/) Outstanding shares		101	101
Fair Price		$217	$230

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$223.43

+549.7%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$25.05

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

-27.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0%, the company has a fair value of $25.05 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $1.00. The current PEG ratio is 0.41.

PEG Ratio

0.41Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ Growth = 32.6 ÷ 78.6% = 0.41

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG moderately applicable

Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	78.6%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	25.0%
Fair P/E	25.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$1.00
Fair Value	$25.05

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$0.26	—	—
FY2026E	$1.00	+285.5%	4
FY2027E	$1.07	+6.4%	4
FY2028E	$1.48	+38.9%	3

3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 78.6%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$25.0M	$0.25	—
FY2022	$463.0M	$4.60	+1740.0%
FY2023	$769.0M	$7.65	+66.3%
FY2024	$7.0M	$0.07	-99.1%
FY2025	$27.0M	$0.26	+273.0%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 1.0%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$29.00

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

-15.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 6.8% and normalized earnings of $287.7M, the company has a fair value of $29.00 per share. The EPV range is $21.38 – $40.93 based on WACC sensitivity (5.3% – 8.3%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	288	288	288
(/) WACC	8.3%	6.8%	5.3%
Enterprise Value	3,469	4,234	5,434
(-) Net debt	1,320	1,320	1,320
Equity Value	2,149	2,914	4,114
(/) Outstanding shares	101	101	101
Fair Price	$21.38	$29.00	$40.93

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$29.02

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

-15.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 8.1% and projected dividend growth of 3.6%, the fair value is $29.02 per share. The DDM range is $19.57 – $49.67 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.50

Dividend Yield

0.00%

Payout Ratio

0.0%

Dividend Coverage

N/A

DPS CAGR (3Y)-14.4%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	—	0.0%	-100.0%
2024	$1.50	2157.1%	-66.7%
2023	$4.51	58.9%	-6.2%
2022	$4.81	104.3%	+100.4%
2021	$2.40	964.0%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.56	3.6%	0.9254	$1.44
2027	$1.61	3.6%	0.8564	$1.38
2028	$1.67	3.6%	0.7925	$1.32
2029	$1.73	3.6%	0.7334	$1.27
2030	$1.79	3.6%	0.6787	$1.21
Terminal Value	$1.83 DPS	2.5%		$22.40

PV of Projected Dividends$6.62

PV of Terminal Value$22.40

Fair Value per Share$29.02

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	1.6%	2.6%	3.6%	4.6%	5.6%
6.1%	$41	$43	$45	$48	$50
7.1%	$32	$34	$35	$37	$39
8.1%	$27	$28	$29	$30	$32
9.1%	$23	$24	$25	$26	$27
10.1%	$20	$20	$21	$22	$23

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 28, 2026 22:22

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$36.98 – $239.42	$67.63	+107.1%
Growth Exit 10Y	$38.76 – $227.56	$67.76	+107.5%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$25.72 – $72.41	$47.08	+44.2%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$30.10 – $77.86	$50.39	+54.3%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$4.31 – $14.94	$10.10	-69.1%
EV/EBITDA	$19.98 – $86.69	$40.51	+24.1%
EV/Revenue	$180.82 – $242.75	$221.95	+579.8%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$25.05 – $25.05	$25.05	-23.3%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$21.38 – $40.93	$29.00	-11.2%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$19.57 – $49.67	$29.02	-11.1%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$67.63

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

+96.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.80%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	294	283	287	318	327	336
(−) Net Interest	81	78	79	87	90	92
(+) D&A	240	233	220	209	209	215
EBITDA	615	594	586	615	627	642

(−) Tax	0	0	0	0	0	0
(−) CapEx	214	206	209	232	239	245
(−) ΔWC	11	-11	4	32	10	10
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	390	399	373	351	378	388

Terminal Value						9,031
WACC / Discount Rate	6.8%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	378	362	316	279	282	6,501

Enterprise Value	8,117
Projection Period	1,616	19.9%
Terminal Value	6,501	80.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,320

Equity Value	6,797
(/) Outstanding Shares	101

Fair Price	$67.63

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.8%	$96	$113	$137	$174	$239
5.8%	$71	$80	$92	$107	$130
6.8%	$55	$61	$68	$76	$87
7.8%	$45	$48	$53	$58	$64
8.8%	$37	$40	$42	$46	$50

Current price: $34.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$67.76

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

+97.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.80%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	294	283	287	318	327	328	331	335	342	350	359
(−) Net Interest	81	78	79	87	90	90	91	92	94	96	99
(+) D&A	240	233	220	209	209	220	225	232	239	242	249
EBITDA	615	594	586	615	627	638	647	659	675	689	706

(−) Tax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
(−) CapEx	214	206	209	232	239	239	241	244	249	255	262
(−) ΔWC	11	-11	4	32	10	1	3	5	7	9	9
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	390	399	373	351	378	398	403	410	419	425	436

Terminal Value											10,142
WACC / Discount Rate	6.8%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	378	362	316	279	282	277	263	251	240	228	5,255

Enterprise Value	8,130
Projection Period	2,874	35.4%
Terminal Value	5,255	64.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,320

Equity Value	6,810
(/) Outstanding Shares	101

Fair Price	$67.76

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.8%	$100	$115	$136	$169	$228
5.8%	$74	$82	$92	$105	$124
6.8%	$58	$62	$68	$75	$84
7.8%	$47	$50	$53	$57	$62
8.8%	$39	$41	$43	$45	$48

Current price: $34.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$47.06

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

+36.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project CVR Energy, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.8% to 2.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 13, DPO 23, DIO 25). At a 6.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (73% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $47.08 per share, suggesting CVI is undervalued by 36.9% at the current price of $34.39.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.80%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.59x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	294	283	287	318	327	336
(−) Net Interest	81	78	79	87	90	92
(+) D&A	240	233	220	209	209	215
EBITDA	615	594	586	615	627	642

(−) Tax	0	0	0	0	0	—
(−) CapEx	214	206	209	232	239	—
(−) ΔWC	11	-11	4	32	10	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	390	399	373	351	378	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						9.6x
Terminal Value						6,159
WACC / Discount Rate	6.80%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	378	362	316	279	282	4,434

Enterprise Value	6,050
Projection Period	1,616	26.7%
Terminal Value	4,434	73.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,320
Equity Value	4,730
(÷) Outstanding Shares	101M
Fair Price	$47	+36.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.6x	7.6x	9.6x	11.6x	13.6x
4.8%	$32	$42	$52	$62	$72
5.8%	$30	$40	$50	$59	$69
6.8%	$29	$38	$47	$56	$65
7.8%	$27	$36	$45	$54	$62
8.8%	$26	$34	$42	$51	$59

Current price: $34.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$50.38

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

+46.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project CVR Energy, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.8% to 2.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 13, DPO 23, DIO 25). At a 6.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (55% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.6x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $50.39 per share, suggesting CVI is undervalued by 46.5% at the current price of $34.39.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.80%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.59x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	294	283	287	318	327	328	331	335	342	350	359
(−) Net Interest	81	78	79	87	90	90	91	92	94	96	99
(+) D&A	240	233	220	209	209	220	225	232	239	242	249
EBITDA	615	594	586	615	627	638	647	659	675	689	706

(−) Tax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
(−) CapEx	214	206	209	232	239	239	241	244	249	255	—
(−) ΔWC	11	-11	4	32	10	1	3	5	7	9	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	390	399	373	351	378	398	403	410	419	425	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											9.6x
Terminal Value											6,771
WACC / Discount Rate	6.80%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	378	362	316	279	282	277	263	251	240	228	3,509

Enterprise Value	6,383
Projection Period	2,874	45.0%
Terminal Value	3,509	55.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,320
Equity Value	5,063
(÷) Outstanding Shares	101M
Fair Price	$50	+46.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.6x	7.6x	9.6x	11.6x	13.6x
4.8%	$43	$51	$60	$69	$78
5.8%	$39	$47	$55	$63	$71
6.8%	$36	$43	$50	$58	$65
7.8%	$33	$39	$46	$53	$59
8.8%	$30	$36	$42	$48	$54

Current price: $34.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$9.51

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

-72.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

P/E Valuation — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
CVR Energy, Inc.CVI	3,456	127.4x	37.2x
Valaris LimitedVAL	7,059	7.4x	24.3x
California Resources CorporationCRC	5,911	16.1x	13.4x
Murphy Oil CorporationMUR	5,738	55.6x	11.3x
Magnolia Oil & Gas CorporationMGY	5,444	16.8x	11.0x
Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.SEI	5,343	112.8x	128.1x
Enphase Energy, Inc.ENPH	4,520	26.6x	16.3x
Valvoline Inc.VVV	4,122	19.7x	21.2x
Industry Median		19.7x	16.3x
(*) Profit after tax		27	93
Equity Value		533	1,379
(/) Outstanding shares		101	101
Fair Price		$5	$14

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$9.51

-72.3%

Fair Value

$42.80

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

+24.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
CVR Energy, Inc.CVI	3,456	8.4x	8.0x
Valaris LimitedVAL	7,059	9.6x	9.6x
California Resources CorporationCRC	5,911	4.8x	4.5x
Murphy Oil CorporationMUR	5,738	6.1x	5.3x
Magnolia Oil & Gas CorporationMGY	5,444	6.3x	5.4x
Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.SEI	5,343	28.0x	56.4x
Enphase Energy, Inc.ENPH	4,520	18.2x	21.4x
Valvoline Inc.VVV	4,122	11.2x	11.9x
Industry Median		9.6x	9.6x
(*) EBITDA		570	599
= Enterprise Value		5,468	5,775
(-) Net Debt		1,320	1,320
Equity Value		4,148	4,455
(/) Outstanding shares		101	101
Fair Price		$41	$44

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$42.80

+24.4%

Fair Value

$223.43

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

+549.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
CVR Energy, Inc.CVI	3,456	0.7x	0.6x
Valaris LimitedVAL	7,059	3.2x	3.2x
Transocean Ltd.RIG	6,133	2.7x	3.1x
California Resources CorporationCRC	5,911	2.0x	1.8x
Murphy Oil CorporationMUR	5,738	2.8x	2.4x
Magnolia Oil & Gas CorporationMGY	5,444	4.3x	3.6x
Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc.SEI	5,343	9.8x	19.6x
PBF Energy Inc.PBF	4,859	0.2x	0.2x
Enphase Energy, Inc.ENPH	4,520	3.6x	4.2x
Valvoline Inc.VVV	4,122	3.4x	3.5x
Industry Median		3.2x	3.2x
(*) Revenue		7,162	7,524
= Enterprise Value		23,125	24,423
(-) Net Debt		1,320	1,320
Equity Value		21,805	23,103
(/) Outstanding shares		101	101
Fair Price		$217	$230

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$223.43

+549.7%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$25.05

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

-27.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0%, the company has a fair value of $25.05 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $1.00. The current PEG ratio is 0.41.

PEG Ratio

0.41Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ Growth = 32.6 ÷ 78.6% = 0.41

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG moderately applicable

Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	78.6%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	25.0%
Fair P/E	25.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$1.00
Fair Value	$25.05

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$0.26	—	—
FY2026E	$1.00	+285.5%	4
FY2027E	$1.07	+6.4%	4
FY2028E	$1.48	+38.9%	3

3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 78.6%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$25.0M	$0.25	—
FY2022	$463.0M	$4.60	+1740.0%
FY2023	$769.0M	$7.65	+66.3%
FY2024	$7.0M	$0.07	-99.1%
FY2025	$27.0M	$0.26	+273.0%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 1.0%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$29.00

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

-15.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	288	288	288
(/) WACC	8.3%	6.8%	5.3%
Enterprise Value	3,469	4,234	5,434
(-) Net debt	1,320	1,320	1,320
Equity Value	2,149	2,914	4,114
(/) Outstanding shares	101	101	101
Fair Price	$21.38	$29.00	$40.93

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$29.02

Market Price

$34.39

Upside / Downside

-15.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.50

Dividend Yield

0.00%

Payout Ratio

0.0%

Dividend Coverage

N/A

DPS CAGR (3Y)-14.4%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	—	0.0%	-100.0%
2024	$1.50	2157.1%	-66.7%
2023	$4.51	58.9%	-6.2%
2022	$4.81	104.3%	+100.4%
2021	$2.40	964.0%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.56	3.6%	0.9254	$1.44
2027	$1.61	3.6%	0.8564	$1.38
2028	$1.67	3.6%	0.7925	$1.32
2029	$1.73	3.6%	0.7334	$1.27
2030	$1.79	3.6%	0.6787	$1.21
Terminal Value	$1.83 DPS	2.5%		$22.40

PV of Projected Dividends$6.62

PV of Terminal Value$22.40

Fair Value per Share$29.02

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	1.6%	2.6%	3.6%	4.6%	5.6%
6.1%	$41	$43	$45	$48	$50
7.1%	$32	$34	$35	$37	$39
8.1%	$27	$28	$29	$30	$32
9.1%	$23	$24	$25	$26	$27
10.1%	$20	$20	$21	$22	$23