Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Custom Truck One Source, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.5% to 3.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 49, DPO 26, DIO 210). At a 7.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (90% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.9x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $7.34 per share, suggesting CTOS is overvalued by 24.4% at the current price of $9.70.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 34 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 |
| (−) Net Interest | 149 | 156 | 161 | 165 | 170 | 175 |
| (+) D&A | 350 | 396 | 417 | 435 | 449 | 460 |
| EBITDA | 533 | 588 | 614 | 638 | 658 | 675 |
| (−) Tax | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 422 | 443 | 456 | 468 | 483 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 64 | 54 | 34 | 32 | 39 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 42 | 86 | 119 | 132 | 131 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 7.9x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 5,350 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.87% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 40 | 77 | 98 | 101 | 93 | 3,664 |
| Enterprise Value | 4,074 | |||||
| Projection Period | 410 | 10.1% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 3,664 | 89.9% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 2,411 | |||||
| Equity Value | 1,662 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 227M | |||||
| Fair Price | $7 | -24.4% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 3.9x | 5.9x | 7.9x | 9.9x | 11.9x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.9% | $0 | $5 | $9 | $14 | $18 |
| 6.9% | $0 | $4 | $8 | $12 | $17 |
| 7.9% | $0 | $3 | $7 | $11 | $15 |
| 8.9% | $0 | $3 | $7 | $10 | $14 |
| 9.9% | $0 | $2 | $6 | $10 | $13 |
Current price: $9.70. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Custom Truck One Source, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.5% to 5.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 49, DPO 26, DIO 210). At a 7.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (92% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.9x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $6.93 per share, suggesting CTOS is overvalued by 28.6% at the current price of $9.70.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 34 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 44 | 50 | 56 | 60 | 64 | 65 |
| (−) Net Interest | 149 | 156 | 161 | 165 | 170 | 193 | 220 | 244 | 264 | 279 | 286 |
| (+) D&A | 350 | 396 | 417 | 435 | 449 | 454 | 480 | 516 | 563 | 619 | 634 |
| EBITDA | 533 | 588 | 614 | 638 | 658 | 692 | 749 | 815 | 887 | 962 | 986 |
| (−) Tax | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 422 | 443 | 456 | 468 | 483 | 548 | 623 | 691 | 749 | 791 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 64 | 54 | 34 | 32 | 39 | 173 | 196 | 180 | 151 | 111 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 42 | 86 | 119 | 132 | 131 | -36 | -77 | -64 | -22 | 50 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 7.9x | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | 7,815 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.87% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 40 | 77 | 98 | 101 | 93 | -24 | -47 | -36 | -11 | 24 | 3,666 |
| Enterprise Value | 3,981 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | 315 | 7.9% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 3,666 | 92.1% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 2,411 | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 1,570 | ||||||||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 227M | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $7 | -28.6% | |||||||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 3.9x | 5.9x | 7.9x | 9.9x | 11.9x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.9% | $0 | $5 | $10 | $15 | $20 |
| 6.9% | $0 | $4 | $9 | $13 | $17 |
| 7.9% | $0 | $3 | $7 | $11 | $15 |
| 8.9% | $0 | $2 | $5 | $9 | $13 |
| 9.9% | $0 | $1 | $4 | $8 | $11 |
Current price: $9.70. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (CTOS) has a fair value of $2.80 based on 7 comparable companies in the Rental & Leasing Services industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/EBITDA | Forward EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Custom Truck One Source, Inc.CTOS | 2,198 | 11.2x | 12.0x |
| Costamare Inc. | 2,125 | 5.2x | 4.8x |
| Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. | 1,890 | 7.9x | 7.4x |
| The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. | 1,564 | 5.9x | 5.4x |
| PROG Holdings, Inc. | 1,431 | 0.9x | 0.7x |
| ManpowerGroup Inc. | 1,387 | 10.6x | 10.6x |
| Willdan Group, Inc. | 1,102 | 17.2x | 22.1x |
| CRA International, Inc. | 902 | 10.5x | 12.1x |
| Industry Median | 7.9x | 7.4x | |
| (*) EBITDA | 410 | 385 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 3,249 | 2,841 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,411 | 2,411 | |
| Equity Value | 838 | 430 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 227 | 227 | |
| Fair Price | $4 | $2 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (CTOS) has a fair value of $1.37 based on 9 comparable companies in the Rental & Leasing Services industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Custom Truck One Source, Inc.CTOS | 2,198 | 2.4x | 2.5x |
| Costamare Inc. | 2,125 | 3.5x | 3.3x |
| Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. | 1,890 | 2.3x | 2.2x |
| The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. | 1,564 | 1.0x | 0.9x |
| PROG Holdings, Inc. | 1,431 | 0.7x | 0.6x |
| ManpowerGroup Inc. | 1,387 | 0.2x | 0.2x |
| Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. | 1,264 | 8.6x | 12.4x |
| Willdan Group, Inc. | 1,102 | 1.6x | 2.1x |
| CRA International, Inc. | 902 | 1.3x | 1.5x |
| Alta Equipment Group Inc. | 236 | 0.8x | 0.7x |
| Industry Median | 1.3x | 1.5x | |
| (*) Revenue | 1,944 | 1,825 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 2,615 | 2,828 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,411 | 2,411 | |
| Equity Value | 204 | 417 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 227 | 227 | |
| Fair Price | $1 | $2 | |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.