Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Canadian Solar Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 22.3% to 1.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 71, DPO 57, DIO 91). At a 5.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (101% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 26.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $408.68 per share, suggesting CSIQ is undervalued by 1938.3% at the current price of $20.05.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 |
| (−) Net Interest | 124 | 140 | 150 | 158 | 160 | 164 |
| (+) D&A | 1,169 | 1,337 | 1,497 | 1,499 | 1,448 | 1,484 |
| EBITDA | 1,290 | 1,474 | 1,644 | 1,654 | 1,604 | 1,644 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 1,268 | 1,430 | 1,536 | 1,612 | 1,636 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 57 | 238 | 156 | 111 | 35 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -35 | -194 | -48 | -69 | -66 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 26.1x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 42,969 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.00% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -34 | -180 | -43 | -58 | -53 | 33,667 |
| Enterprise Value | 33,298 | |||||
| Projection Period | -368 | -1.1% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 33,667 | 101.1% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 5,767 | |||||
| Equity Value | 27,531 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 67M | |||||
| Fair Price | $409 | +1938.2% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 22.1x | 24.1x | 26.1x | 28.1x | 30.1x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $375 | $417 | $459 | $501 | $543 |
| 4.0% | $353 | $393 | $433 | $473 | $513 |
| 5.0% | $332 | $370 | $409 | $447 | $485 |
| 6.0% | $313 | $349 | $386 | $422 | $459 |
| 7.0% | $294 | $329 | $364 | $399 | $434 |
Current price: $20.05. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Canadian Solar Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 22.3% to 2.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 71, DPO 57, DIO 91). At a 5.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (101% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 26.1x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $366.28 per share, suggesting CSIQ is undervalued by 1726.8% at the current price of $20.05.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -4 |
| (−) Net Interest | 124 | 140 | 150 | 158 | 160 | 163 | 166 | 170 | 174 | 179 | 183 |
| (+) D&A | 1,169 | 1,337 | 1,497 | 1,499 | 1,448 | 1,496 | 1,576 | 1,629 | 1,669 | 1,702 | 1,745 |
| EBITDA | 1,290 | 1,474 | 1,644 | 1,654 | 1,604 | 1,656 | 1,738 | 1,795 | 1,839 | 1,877 | 1,924 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 1,268 | 1,430 | 1,536 | 1,612 | 1,636 | 1,664 | 1,697 | 1,735 | 1,778 | 1,827 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 57 | 238 | 156 | 111 | 35 | 41 | 48 | 56 | 63 | 72 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -35 | -194 | -48 | -69 | -66 | -50 | -7 | 5 | -2 | -21 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 26.1x | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | 50,277 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.00% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -34 | -180 | -43 | -58 | -53 | -38 | -5 | 3 | -2 | -14 | 30,866 |
| Enterprise Value | 30,442 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | -423 | -1.4% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 30,866 | 101.4% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 5,767 | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 24,675 | ||||||||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 67M | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $366 | +1726.8% | |||||||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 22.1x | 24.1x | 26.1x | 28.1x | 30.1x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $378 | $421 | $463 | $506 | $548 |
| 4.0% | $335 | $374 | $412 | $451 | $489 |
| 5.0% | $296 | $331 | $366 | $401 | $436 |
| 6.0% | $261 | $293 | $325 | $357 | $389 |
| 7.0% | $230 | $259 | $288 | $317 | $346 |
Current price: $20.05. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.