Cronos Group Inc.

CRON

HealthcareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericNASDAQ

$2.73

Market Cap: $1.02B

Cronos Group Inc. (CRON) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:25

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$1.98 – $2.13	$2.06	-20.4%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$1.86 – $4.06	$2.43	-5.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$3.05 – $9.07	$3.27	+26.7%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Cronos Group Inc. (CRON) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.43

Market Price

$2.73

Upside / Downside

-11.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -1.5% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.7%, Cronos Group Inc. (CRON) has an intrinsic value of $2.43 per share (range: $1.86 – $4.06).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

10.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

16.9%

D&A/Revenue

11.2%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	186	-3.7%	1.5%	3	3	21	(21)	20	-17	-16
2027	208	11.6%	4.4%	9	9	23	(25)	13	-5	-5
2028	203	-2.4%	7.4%	15	15	23	(25)	-3	15	12
2029	162	-19.9%	10.4%	17	17	18	(21)	-24	38	28
2030	211	30.0%	13.3%	28	28	24	(29)	29	-6	-4
2031	268	26.8%	13.3%	36	36	30	(39)	34	-7	-4
2032	327	22.0%	13.3%	44	44	37	(49)	35	-4	-2
2033	383	17.3%	13.3%	51	51	43	(60)	34	0	0
2034	431	12.5%	13.3%	58	58	48	(70)	29	7	3
2035	465	7.8%	13.3%	62	62	52	(78)	20	16	7

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)20

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)284

PV of Terminal Value128

Enterprise Value148

(–) Net Debt-790

Equity Value938

(÷) Shares Outstanding385

Fair Value per Share$2.43

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.7%	$2	$2	$3	$3	$4
7.7%	$2	$2	$3	$3	$4
8.7%	$2	$2	$2	$3	$3
9.7%	$2	$2	$2	$3	$3
10.7%	$2	$2	$2	$3	$3

Current price: $2.73. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 60.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Cronos Group Inc. (CRON) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.06

Market Price

$2.73

Upside / Downside

-24.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

10.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

16.9%

D&A/Revenue

11.2%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	186	-3.7%	1.5%	3	3	21	(22)	20	-18	-17
2027	208	11.6%	4.4%	9	9	23	(27)	13	-8	-7
2028	203	-2.4%	7.4%	15	15	23	(29)	-3	12	9
2029	162	-19.9%	10.4%	17	17	18	(25)	-24	34	25
2030	211	30.0%	13.3%	28	28	24	(36)	29	-13	-9

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)2

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value2

(–) Net Debt-790

Equity Value792

(÷) Shares Outstanding385

Fair Value per Share$2.06

Note:Terminal value is $0 because Year 5 FCFF is negative. The company's operating margin convergence does not fully offset reinvestment needs within 5 years. See the sensitivity matrix for scenarios where the model produces a positive terminal value (higher target margin or lower WACC).

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.7%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2
7.7%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2
8.7%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2
9.7%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2
10.7%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2

Current price: $2.73. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 60.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$3.27

Market Price

$2.73

Upside / Downside

+19.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Cronos Group Inc. (CRON) has a fair value of $3.27 based on 8 comparable companies in the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Cronos Group Inc.CRON	1,052	1.4x	1.9x
Nurix Therapeutics, Inc.NRIX	1,368	14.0x	20.5x
IRadimed CorporationIRMD	1,223	14.0x	17.3x
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.COLL	1,035	2.2x	2.1x
Pacira BioSciences, Inc.PCRX	958	1.7x	1.6x
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.AMPH	946	2.0x	1.9x
Xencor, Inc.XNCR	912	8.3x	8.9x
Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.PHAT	886	4.3x	2.3x
Embecta Corp.EMBC	529	1.6x	1.6x
Industry Median		3.3x	2.2x
(*) Revenue		193	139
= Enterprise Value		633	307
(-) Net Debt		-790	-790
Equity Value		1,423	1,097
(/) Outstanding shares		385	385
Fair Price		$4	$3

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$3.27

+19.8%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Cronos Group Inc. (CRON) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:25

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$1.98 – $2.13	$2.06	-20.4%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$1.86 – $4.06	$2.43	-5.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$3.05 – $9.07	$3.27	+26.7%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Cronos Group Inc. (CRON) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.43

Market Price

$2.73

Upside / Downside

-11.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

10.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

16.9%

D&A/Revenue

11.2%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	186	-3.7%	1.5%	3	3	21	(21)	20	-17	-16
2027	208	11.6%	4.4%	9	9	23	(25)	13	-5	-5
2028	203	-2.4%	7.4%	15	15	23	(25)	-3	15	12
2029	162	-19.9%	10.4%	17	17	18	(21)	-24	38	28
2030	211	30.0%	13.3%	28	28	24	(29)	29	-6	-4
2031	268	26.8%	13.3%	36	36	30	(39)	34	-7	-4
2032	327	22.0%	13.3%	44	44	37	(49)	35	-4	-2
2033	383	17.3%	13.3%	51	51	43	(60)	34	0	0
2034	431	12.5%	13.3%	58	58	48	(70)	29	7	3
2035	465	7.8%	13.3%	62	62	52	(78)	20	16	7

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)20

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)284

PV of Terminal Value128

Enterprise Value148

(–) Net Debt-790

Equity Value938

(÷) Shares Outstanding385

Fair Value per Share$2.43

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.7%	$2	$2	$3	$3	$4
7.7%	$2	$2	$3	$3	$4
8.7%	$2	$2	$2	$3	$3
9.7%	$2	$2	$2	$3	$3
10.7%	$2	$2	$2	$3	$3

Current price: $2.73. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 60.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Cronos Group Inc. (CRON) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.06

Market Price

$2.73

Upside / Downside

-24.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

10.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

16.9%

D&A/Revenue

11.2%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	186	-3.7%	1.5%	3	3	21	(22)	20	-18	-17
2027	208	11.6%	4.4%	9	9	23	(27)	13	-8	-7
2028	203	-2.4%	7.4%	15	15	23	(29)	-3	12	9
2029	162	-19.9%	10.4%	17	17	18	(25)	-24	34	25
2030	211	30.0%	13.3%	28	28	24	(36)	29	-13	-9

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)2

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value2

(–) Net Debt-790

Equity Value792

(÷) Shares Outstanding385

Fair Value per Share$2.06

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.7%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2
7.7%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2
8.7%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2
9.7%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2
10.7%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2

Current price: $2.73. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 60.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$3.27

Market Price

$2.73

Upside / Downside

+19.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Cronos Group Inc.CRON	1,052	1.4x	1.9x
Nurix Therapeutics, Inc.NRIX	1,368	14.0x	20.5x
IRadimed CorporationIRMD	1,223	14.0x	17.3x
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.COLL	1,035	2.2x	2.1x
Pacira BioSciences, Inc.PCRX	958	1.7x	1.6x
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.AMPH	946	2.0x	1.9x
Xencor, Inc.XNCR	912	8.3x	8.9x
Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.PHAT	886	4.3x	2.3x
Embecta Corp.EMBC	529	1.6x	1.6x
Industry Median		3.3x	2.2x
(*) Revenue		193	139
= Enterprise Value		633	307
(-) Net Debt		-790	-790
Equity Value		1,423	1,097
(/) Outstanding shares		385	385
Fair Price		$4	$3

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$3.27

+19.8%