Coya Therapeutics, Inc.

COYA

HealthcareBiotechnologyNASDAQ

$4.11

Market Cap: $68.75M

Coya Therapeutics, Inc. (COYA) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 06:18

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.18 – $1.13	$0.40	-90.4%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.07 – $3.05	$1.04	-74.7%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$4.97 – $27.00	$12.59	+206.3%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Coya Therapeutics, Inc. (COYA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.04

Market Price

$4.11

Upside / Downside

-74.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -255.1% to a target of 13.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.6%, Coya Therapeutics, Inc. (COYA) has an intrinsic value of $1.04 per share (range: $0.07 – $3.05).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-255.1%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

8.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

0.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	2	-72.4%	-201.4%	-4	-4	(0)	2	-6	-6
2027	7	230.6%	-147.8%	-11	-11	(1)	1	-12	-11
2028	21	194.7%	-94.1%	-20	-20	(2)	3	-25	-20
2029	13	-39.2%	-40.5%	-5	-5	(1)	-2	-4	-3
2030	18	42.2%	13.2%	2	2	(1)	1	-1	-0
2031	21	13.1%	13.2%	3	2	(1)	1	0	0
2032	23	11.0%	13.2%	3	2	(2)	1	0	0
2033	25	9.0%	13.2%	3	3	(2)	0	1	0
2034	27	7.0%	13.2%	4	3	(2)	0	1	0
2035	28	5.0%	13.2%	4	3	(2)	0	1	1

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-39

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)20

PV of Terminal Value9

Enterprise Value-29

(–) Net Debt-47

Equity Value17

(÷) Shares Outstanding17

Fair Value per Share$1.04

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.6%	$0	$1	$1	$2	$3
7.6%	$0	$1	$1	$2	$2
8.6%	$0	$1	$1	$2	$2
9.6%	$0	$1	$1	$1	$2
10.6%	$0	$1	$1	$1	$2

Current price: $4.11. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 22.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Coya Therapeutics, Inc. (COYA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.40

Market Price

$4.11

Upside / Downside

-90.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-255.1%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

8.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

0.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	2	-72.4%	-201.4%	-4	-4	(0)	2	-6	-6
2027	7	230.6%	-147.8%	-11	-11	(1)	1	-12	-11
2028	21	194.7%	-94.1%	-20	-20	(1)	3	-25	-20
2029	13	-39.2%	-40.5%	-5	-5	(1)	-2	-4	-3
2030	18	42.2%	13.2%	2	2	(1)	1	-0	-0

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-40

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value-40

(–) Net Debt-47

Equity Value7

(÷) Shares Outstanding17

Fair Value per Share$0.40

Note:Terminal value is $0 because Year 5 FCFF is negative. The company's operating margin convergence does not fully offset reinvestment needs within 5 years. See the sensitivity matrix for scenarios where the model produces a positive terminal value (higher target margin or lower WACC).

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
7.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
8.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
9.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
10.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1

Current price: $4.11. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 22.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$12.59

Market Price

$4.11

Upside / Downside

+206.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Coya Therapeutics, Inc. (COYA) has a fair value of $12.59 based on 6 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Coya Therapeutics, Inc.COYA	69	2.8x	10.0x
Ovid Therapeutics Inc.OVID	369	51.0x	—
Zentalis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.ZNTL	300	4.6x	144.1x
Whitehawk Therapeutics IncWHWK	195	22.0x	17.8x
MacroGenics, Inc.MGNX	191	1.6x	2.2x
Oramed Pharmaceuticals Inc.ORMP	165	60.2x	178.5x
Pliant Therapeutics, Inc.PLRX	77	15.8x	10.0x
Industry Median		18.9x	17.8x
(*) Revenue		8	2
= Enterprise Value		150	178
(-) Net Debt		-47	-47
Equity Value		197	224
(/) Outstanding shares		17	17
Fair Price		$12	$13

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$12.59

+206.3%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Coya Therapeutics, Inc. (COYA) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 06:18

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.18 – $1.13	$0.40	-90.4%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.07 – $3.05	$1.04	-74.7%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$4.97 – $27.00	$12.59	+206.3%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Coya Therapeutics, Inc. (COYA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.04

Market Price

$4.11

Upside / Downside

-74.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-255.1%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

8.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

0.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	2	-72.4%	-201.4%	-4	-4	(0)	2	-6	-6
2027	7	230.6%	-147.8%	-11	-11	(1)	1	-12	-11
2028	21	194.7%	-94.1%	-20	-20	(2)	3	-25	-20
2029	13	-39.2%	-40.5%	-5	-5	(1)	-2	-4	-3
2030	18	42.2%	13.2%	2	2	(1)	1	-1	-0
2031	21	13.1%	13.2%	3	2	(1)	1	0	0
2032	23	11.0%	13.2%	3	2	(2)	1	0	0
2033	25	9.0%	13.2%	3	3	(2)	0	1	0
2034	27	7.0%	13.2%	4	3	(2)	0	1	0
2035	28	5.0%	13.2%	4	3	(2)	0	1	1

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-39

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)20

PV of Terminal Value9

Enterprise Value-29

(–) Net Debt-47

Equity Value17

(÷) Shares Outstanding17

Fair Value per Share$1.04

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.6%	$0	$1	$1	$2	$3
7.6%	$0	$1	$1	$2	$2
8.6%	$0	$1	$1	$2	$2
9.6%	$0	$1	$1	$1	$2
10.6%	$0	$1	$1	$1	$2

Current price: $4.11. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 22.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Coya Therapeutics, Inc. (COYA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.40

Market Price

$4.11

Upside / Downside

-90.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-255.1%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

8.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

0.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	2	-72.4%	-201.4%	-4	-4	(0)	2	-6	-6
2027	7	230.6%	-147.8%	-11	-11	(1)	1	-12	-11
2028	21	194.7%	-94.1%	-20	-20	(1)	3	-25	-20
2029	13	-39.2%	-40.5%	-5	-5	(1)	-2	-4	-3
2030	18	42.2%	13.2%	2	2	(1)	1	-0	-0

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-40

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value-40

(–) Net Debt-47

Equity Value7

(÷) Shares Outstanding17

Fair Value per Share$0.40

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
7.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
8.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
9.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1
10.6%	$0	$0	$0	$1	$1

Current price: $4.11. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 22.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$12.59

Market Price

$4.11

Upside / Downside

+206.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Coya Therapeutics, Inc. (COYA) has a fair value of $12.59 based on 6 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Coya Therapeutics, Inc.COYA	69	2.8x	10.0x
Ovid Therapeutics Inc.OVID	369	51.0x	—
Zentalis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.ZNTL	300	4.6x	144.1x
Whitehawk Therapeutics IncWHWK	195	22.0x	17.8x
MacroGenics, Inc.MGNX	191	1.6x	2.2x
Oramed Pharmaceuticals Inc.ORMP	165	60.2x	178.5x
Pliant Therapeutics, Inc.PLRX	77	15.8x	10.0x
Industry Median		18.9x	17.8x
(*) Revenue		8	2
= Enterprise Value		150	178
(-) Net Debt		-47	-47
Equity Value		197	224
(/) Outstanding shares		17	17
Fair Price		$12	$13

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$12.59

+206.3%