Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.

CON

HealthcareMedical - Equipment & ServicesNYSE

$25.00

Market Cap: $3.20B

Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:25

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$15.73 – $100.11	$33.30	+58.6%
Growth Exit 10Y	$20.01 – $109.41	$38.83	+85.0%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$11.04 – $45.00	$26.59	+26.7%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$15.63 – $53.46	$31.72	+51.1%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$17.33 – $24.20	$19.34	-7.9%
EV/EBITDA	$7.71 – $23.10	$14.90	-29.0%
EV/Revenue	$20.06 – $51.96	$27.32	+30.1%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$20.57 – $20.57	$20.57	-2.0%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$9.10 – $21.27	$13.99	-33.4%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$3.91 – $7.28	$5.37	-74.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$33.30

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

+33.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.9% to 5.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 43, DPO 6, DIO 60). At a 7.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (82% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $33.30 per share, suggesting CON is undervalued by 33.2% at the current price of $25.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.63%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	324	343	366	387	409	420
(−) Net Interest	86	91	97	103	109	111
(+) D&A	62	68	74	77	83	85
EBITDA	472	502	538	567	601	616

(−) Tax	76	81	86	91	96	98
(−) CapEx	76	80	85	90	95	98
(−) ΔWC	287	31	37	34	36	37
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	33	310	329	352	373	383

Terminal Value						7,461
WACC / Discount Rate	7.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	32	278	274	273	268	5,166

Enterprise Value	6,290
Projection Period	1,125	17.9%
Terminal Value	5,166	82.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,023

Equity Value	4,268
(/) Outstanding Shares	128

Fair Price	$33.30

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.6%	$48	$56	$66	$80	$100
6.6%	$35	$40	$46	$53	$62
7.6%	$27	$30	$33	$38	$43
8.6%	$20	$23	$25	$28	$31
9.6%	$16	$17	$19	$21	$23

Current price: $25.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$38.83

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

+55.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.9% to 3.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 43, DPO 6, DIO 60). At a 7.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (66% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $38.83 per share, suggesting CON is undervalued by 55.3% at the current price of $25.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.63%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	324	343	366	387	409	431	452	471	490	507	519
(−) Net Interest	86	91	97	103	109	114	120	125	130	134	138
(+) D&A	62	68	74	77	83	85	90	95	100	105	108
EBITDA	472	502	538	567	601	631	662	692	720	746	765

(−) Tax	76	81	86	91	96	101	106	111	115	119	122
(−) CapEx	76	80	85	90	95	100	105	110	114	118	121
(−) ΔWC	287	31	37	34	36	35	34	32	30	27	28
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	33	310	329	352	373	394	417	439	461	482	494

Terminal Value											9,626
WACC / Discount Rate	7.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	32	278	274	273	268	263	259	253	247	240	4,614

Enterprise Value	7,000
Projection Period	2,386	34.1%
Terminal Value	4,614	65.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,023

Equity Value	4,977
(/) Outstanding Shares	128

Fair Price	$38.83

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.6%	$59	$66	$76	$90	$109
6.6%	$43	$48	$53	$60	$69
7.6%	$33	$36	$39	$43	$48
8.6%	$26	$27	$29	$32	$35
9.6%	$20	$21	$23	$24	$26

Current price: $25.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$26.58

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

+6.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.9% to 5.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 43, DPO 6, DIO 60). At a 7.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (79% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $26.59 per share, suggesting CON is fairly valued by 6.4% at the current price of $25.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.63%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

10.10x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	324	343	366	387	409	420
(−) Net Interest	86	91	97	103	109	111
(+) D&A	62	68	74	77	83	85
EBITDA	472	502	538	567	601	616

(−) Tax	76	81	86	91	96	—
(−) CapEx	76	80	85	90	95	—
(−) ΔWC	287	31	37	34	36	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	33	310	329	352	373	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						10.1x
Terminal Value						6,218
WACC / Discount Rate	7.63%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	32	278	274	273	268	4,305

Enterprise Value	5,430
Projection Period	1,125	20.7%
Terminal Value	4,305	79.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,023
Equity Value	3,407
(÷) Outstanding Shares	128M
Fair Price	$27	+6.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	6.1x	8.1x	10.1x	12.1x	14.1x
5.6%	$16	$23	$30	$38	$45
6.6%	$14	$21	$28	$35	$42
7.6%	$13	$20	$27	$33	$40
8.6%	$12	$18	$25	$31	$38
9.6%	$11	$17	$23	$29	$35

Current price: $25.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$31.72

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

+26.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.9% to 3.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 43, DPO 6, DIO 60). At a 7.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (61% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.1x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $31.72 per share, suggesting CON is undervalued by 26.9% at the current price of $25.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.63%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

10.10x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	324	343	366	387	409	431	452	471	490	507	519
(−) Net Interest	86	91	97	103	109	114	120	125	130	134	138
(+) D&A	62	68	74	77	83	85	90	95	100	105	108
EBITDA	472	502	538	567	601	631	662	692	720	746	765

(−) Tax	76	81	86	91	96	101	106	111	115	119	—
(−) CapEx	76	80	85	90	95	100	105	110	114	118	—
(−) ΔWC	287	31	37	34	36	35	34	32	30	27	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	33	310	329	352	373	394	417	439	461	482	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											10.1x
Terminal Value											7,724
WACC / Discount Rate	7.63%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	32	278	274	273	268	263	259	253	247	240	3,702

Enterprise Value	6,088
Projection Period	2,386	39.2%
Terminal Value	3,702	60.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,023
Equity Value	4,065
(÷) Outstanding Shares	128M
Fair Price	$32	+26.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	6.1x	8.1x	10.1x	12.1x	14.1x
5.6%	$26	$33	$40	$47	$53
6.6%	$23	$29	$36	$42	$48
7.6%	$20	$26	$32	$37	$43
8.6%	$18	$23	$28	$33	$39
9.6%	$16	$20	$25	$30	$35

Current price: $25.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$19.34

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

-22.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON) has a fair value of $19.34 based on 7 comparable companies in the Medical - Equipment & Services industry.

P/E Valuation — Medical - Equipment & Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.CON	3,204	19.2x	17.2x
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.CPRX	3,070	14.9x	13.5x
Integer Holdings CorporationITGR	3,000	29.6x	13.5x
HUTCHMED (China) LimitedHCM	2,790	5.9x	48.7x
Haemonetics CorporationHAE	2,736	17.7x	11.8x
Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc.PBH	2,651	12.9x	12.1x
Bausch Health Companies Inc.BHC	2,005	13.2x	1.3x
Addus HomeCare CorporationADUS	1,743	17.9x	17.9x
Industry Median		14.9x	13.5x
(*) Profit after tax		173	186
Equity Value		2,569	2,388
(/) Outstanding shares		128	128
Fair Price		$20	$19

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$19.34

-22.6%

Fair Value

$14.90

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

-40.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON) has a fair value of $14.90 based on 6 comparable companies in the Medical - Equipment & Services industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Medical - Equipment & Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.CON	3,204	12.8x	14.6x
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.CPRX	3,070	7.4x	6.9x
Integer Holdings CorporationITGR	3,000	14.6x	14.7x
Haemonetics CorporationHAE	2,736	10.3x	10.5x
Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc.PBH	2,651	9.9x	10.3x
Bausch Health Companies Inc.BHC	2,005	7.1x	6.9x
Addus HomeCare CorporationADUS	1,743	12.2x	15.1x
Industry Median		10.1x	10.4x
(*) EBITDA		409	359
= Enterprise Value		4,130	3,735
(-) Net Debt		2,023	2,023
Equity Value		2,108	1,712
(/) Outstanding shares		128	128
Fair Price		$16	$13

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$14.90

-40.4%

Fair Value

$27.32

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

+9.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON) has a fair value of $27.32 based on 9 comparable companies in the Medical - Equipment & Services industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Equipment & Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.CON	3,204	2.4x	2.8x
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.CPRX	3,070	4.0x	3.7x
Integer Holdings CorporationITGR	3,000	2.4x	2.4x
HUTCHMED (China) LimitedHCM	2,790	5.1x	4.4x
Haemonetics CorporationHAE	2,736	2.7x	2.8x
Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc.PBH	2,651	3.2x	3.3x
Beam Therapeutics Inc.BEAM	2,468	17.7x	55.3x
DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc.XRAY	2,325	1.2x	1.2x
Bausch Health Companies Inc.BHC	2,005	2.1x	2.1x
Addus HomeCare CorporationADUS	1,743	1.3x	1.6x
Industry Median		2.7x	2.8x
(*) Revenue		2,163	1,900
= Enterprise Value		5,810	5,238
(-) Net Debt		2,023	2,023
Equity Value		3,787	3,216
(/) Outstanding shares		128	128
Fair Price		$30	$25

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$27.32

+9.3%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$20.57

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

-17.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 14.1% plus 1.2% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $20.57 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $1.46. The current PEG ratio is 1.02.

PEG Ratio

1.02Fair Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 14.4 ÷ (12.9% + 1.2%) = 1.02

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	12.9%
Dividend Yield	+1.2%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	14.1%
Fair P/E	14.1x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$1.46
Fair Value	$20.57

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$1.30	—	—
FY2026E	$1.46	+12.5%	5
FY2027E	$1.67	+14.1%	6
FY2028E	$1.87	+12.1%	3

3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 12.9%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$208.9M	$1.65	—
FY2022	$166.7M	$1.32	-20.0%
FY2023	$179.9M	$1.42	+7.6%
FY2024	$166.5M	$1.30	-8.5%
FY2025	$172.8M	$1.30	+0.0%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -5.8%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$13.99

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

-44.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 7.6% and normalized earnings of $291.1M, the company has a fair value of $13.99 per share. The EPV range is $9.10 – $21.27 based on WACC sensitivity (6.1% – 9.1%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	291	291	291
(/) WACC	9.1%	7.6%	6.1%
Enterprise Value	3,189	3,816	4,749
(-) Net debt	2,023	2,023	2,023
Equity Value	1,166	1,793	2,727
(/) Outstanding shares	128	128	128
Fair Price	$9.10	$13.99	$21.27

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$5.37

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

-78.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 10.4% and projected dividend growth of 15.0%, the fair value is $5.37 per share. The DDM range is $3.91 – $7.28 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.25

Dividend Yield

1.19%

Payout Ratio

18.6%

Dividend Coverage

5.39x

FCF Payout Ratio16.3%

DPS CAGR (2Y)127.3%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.25	18.6%	-97.9%
2024	$12.05	926.9%	+24780.6%
2023	$0.05	3.4%	—
2022	—	0.0%	—
2021	—	0.0%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$0.29	15.0%	0.9054	$0.26
2027	$0.33	15.0%	0.8198	$0.27
2028	$0.38	15.0%	0.7423	$0.28
2029	$0.44	15.0%	0.6721	$0.29
2030	$0.50	15.0%	0.6085	$0.31
Terminal Value	$0.52 DPS	2.5%		$3.95

PV of Projected Dividends$1.41

PV of Terminal Value$3.95

Fair Value per Share$5.37

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	13.0%	14.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%
8.4%	$7	$7	$7	$7	$7
9.4%	$6	$6	$6	$6	$6
10.4%	$5	$5	$5	$5	$5
11.4%	$4	$5	$5	$5	$5
12.4%	$4	$4	$4	$4	$4

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:25

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$15.73 – $100.11	$33.30	+58.6%
Growth Exit 10Y	$20.01 – $109.41	$38.83	+85.0%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$11.04 – $45.00	$26.59	+26.7%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$15.63 – $53.46	$31.72	+51.1%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$17.33 – $24.20	$19.34	-7.9%
EV/EBITDA	$7.71 – $23.10	$14.90	-29.0%
EV/Revenue	$20.06 – $51.96	$27.32	+30.1%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$20.57 – $20.57	$20.57	-2.0%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$9.10 – $21.27	$13.99	-33.4%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$3.91 – $7.28	$5.37	-74.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$33.30

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

+33.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.63%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	324	343	366	387	409	420
(−) Net Interest	86	91	97	103	109	111
(+) D&A	62	68	74	77	83	85
EBITDA	472	502	538	567	601	616

(−) Tax	76	81	86	91	96	98
(−) CapEx	76	80	85	90	95	98
(−) ΔWC	287	31	37	34	36	37
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	33	310	329	352	373	383

Terminal Value						7,461
WACC / Discount Rate	7.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	32	278	274	273	268	5,166

Enterprise Value	6,290
Projection Period	1,125	17.9%
Terminal Value	5,166	82.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,023

Equity Value	4,268
(/) Outstanding Shares	128

Fair Price	$33.30

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.6%	$48	$56	$66	$80	$100
6.6%	$35	$40	$46	$53	$62
7.6%	$27	$30	$33	$38	$43
8.6%	$20	$23	$25	$28	$31
9.6%	$16	$17	$19	$21	$23

Current price: $25.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$38.83

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

+55.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.63%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	324	343	366	387	409	431	452	471	490	507	519
(−) Net Interest	86	91	97	103	109	114	120	125	130	134	138
(+) D&A	62	68	74	77	83	85	90	95	100	105	108
EBITDA	472	502	538	567	601	631	662	692	720	746	765

(−) Tax	76	81	86	91	96	101	106	111	115	119	122
(−) CapEx	76	80	85	90	95	100	105	110	114	118	121
(−) ΔWC	287	31	37	34	36	35	34	32	30	27	28
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	33	310	329	352	373	394	417	439	461	482	494

Terminal Value											9,626
WACC / Discount Rate	7.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	32	278	274	273	268	263	259	253	247	240	4,614

Enterprise Value	7,000
Projection Period	2,386	34.1%
Terminal Value	4,614	65.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,023

Equity Value	4,977
(/) Outstanding Shares	128

Fair Price	$38.83

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.6%	$59	$66	$76	$90	$109
6.6%	$43	$48	$53	$60	$69
7.6%	$33	$36	$39	$43	$48
8.6%	$26	$27	$29	$32	$35
9.6%	$20	$21	$23	$24	$26

Current price: $25.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$26.58

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

+6.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.9% to 5.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 43, DPO 6, DIO 60). At a 7.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (79% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $26.59 per share, suggesting CON is fairly valued by 6.4% at the current price of $25.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.63%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

10.10x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	324	343	366	387	409	420
(−) Net Interest	86	91	97	103	109	111
(+) D&A	62	68	74	77	83	85
EBITDA	472	502	538	567	601	616

(−) Tax	76	81	86	91	96	—
(−) CapEx	76	80	85	90	95	—
(−) ΔWC	287	31	37	34	36	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	33	310	329	352	373	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						10.1x
Terminal Value						6,218
WACC / Discount Rate	7.63%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	32	278	274	273	268	4,305

Enterprise Value	5,430
Projection Period	1,125	20.7%
Terminal Value	4,305	79.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,023
Equity Value	3,407
(÷) Outstanding Shares	128M
Fair Price	$27	+6.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	6.1x	8.1x	10.1x	12.1x	14.1x
5.6%	$16	$23	$30	$38	$45
6.6%	$14	$21	$28	$35	$42
7.6%	$13	$20	$27	$33	$40
8.6%	$12	$18	$25	$31	$38
9.6%	$11	$17	$23	$29	$35

Current price: $25.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$31.72

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

+26.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.9% to 3.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 43, DPO 6, DIO 60). At a 7.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (61% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.1x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $31.72 per share, suggesting CON is undervalued by 26.9% at the current price of $25.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.63%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

10.10x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	324	343	366	387	409	431	452	471	490	507	519
(−) Net Interest	86	91	97	103	109	114	120	125	130	134	138
(+) D&A	62	68	74	77	83	85	90	95	100	105	108
EBITDA	472	502	538	567	601	631	662	692	720	746	765

(−) Tax	76	81	86	91	96	101	106	111	115	119	—
(−) CapEx	76	80	85	90	95	100	105	110	114	118	—
(−) ΔWC	287	31	37	34	36	35	34	32	30	27	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	33	310	329	352	373	394	417	439	461	482	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											10.1x
Terminal Value											7,724
WACC / Discount Rate	7.63%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	32	278	274	273	268	263	259	253	247	240	3,702

Enterprise Value	6,088
Projection Period	2,386	39.2%
Terminal Value	3,702	60.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,023
Equity Value	4,065
(÷) Outstanding Shares	128M
Fair Price	$32	+26.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	6.1x	8.1x	10.1x	12.1x	14.1x
5.6%	$26	$33	$40	$47	$53
6.6%	$23	$29	$36	$42	$48
7.6%	$20	$26	$32	$37	$43
8.6%	$18	$23	$28	$33	$39
9.6%	$16	$20	$25	$30	$35

Current price: $25.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$19.34

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

-22.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

P/E Valuation — Medical - Equipment & Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.CON	3,204	19.2x	17.2x
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.CPRX	3,070	14.9x	13.5x
Integer Holdings CorporationITGR	3,000	29.6x	13.5x
HUTCHMED (China) LimitedHCM	2,790	5.9x	48.7x
Haemonetics CorporationHAE	2,736	17.7x	11.8x
Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc.PBH	2,651	12.9x	12.1x
Bausch Health Companies Inc.BHC	2,005	13.2x	1.3x
Addus HomeCare CorporationADUS	1,743	17.9x	17.9x
Industry Median		14.9x	13.5x
(*) Profit after tax		173	186
Equity Value		2,569	2,388
(/) Outstanding shares		128	128
Fair Price		$20	$19

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$19.34

-22.6%

Fair Value

$14.90

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

-40.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Medical - Equipment & Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.CON	3,204	12.8x	14.6x
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.CPRX	3,070	7.4x	6.9x
Integer Holdings CorporationITGR	3,000	14.6x	14.7x
Haemonetics CorporationHAE	2,736	10.3x	10.5x
Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc.PBH	2,651	9.9x	10.3x
Bausch Health Companies Inc.BHC	2,005	7.1x	6.9x
Addus HomeCare CorporationADUS	1,743	12.2x	15.1x
Industry Median		10.1x	10.4x
(*) EBITDA		409	359
= Enterprise Value		4,130	3,735
(-) Net Debt		2,023	2,023
Equity Value		2,108	1,712
(/) Outstanding shares		128	128
Fair Price		$16	$13

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$14.90

-40.4%

Fair Value

$27.32

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

+9.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Equipment & Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.CON	3,204	2.4x	2.8x
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.CPRX	3,070	4.0x	3.7x
Integer Holdings CorporationITGR	3,000	2.4x	2.4x
HUTCHMED (China) LimitedHCM	2,790	5.1x	4.4x
Haemonetics CorporationHAE	2,736	2.7x	2.8x
Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc.PBH	2,651	3.2x	3.3x
Beam Therapeutics Inc.BEAM	2,468	17.7x	55.3x
DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc.XRAY	2,325	1.2x	1.2x
Bausch Health Companies Inc.BHC	2,005	2.1x	2.1x
Addus HomeCare CorporationADUS	1,743	1.3x	1.6x
Industry Median		2.7x	2.8x
(*) Revenue		2,163	1,900
= Enterprise Value		5,810	5,238
(-) Net Debt		2,023	2,023
Equity Value		3,787	3,216
(/) Outstanding shares		128	128
Fair Price		$30	$25

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$27.32

+9.3%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$20.57

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

-17.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

PEG Ratio

1.02Fair Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 14.4 ÷ (12.9% + 1.2%) = 1.02

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	12.9%
Dividend Yield	+1.2%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	14.1%
Fair P/E	14.1x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$1.46
Fair Value	$20.57

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$1.30	—	—
FY2026E	$1.46	+12.5%	5
FY2027E	$1.67	+14.1%	6
FY2028E	$1.87	+12.1%	3

3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 12.9%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$208.9M	$1.65	—
FY2022	$166.7M	$1.32	-20.0%
FY2023	$179.9M	$1.42	+7.6%
FY2024	$166.5M	$1.30	-8.5%
FY2025	$172.8M	$1.30	+0.0%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -5.8%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$13.99

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

-44.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	291	291	291
(/) WACC	9.1%	7.6%	6.1%
Enterprise Value	3,189	3,816	4,749
(-) Net debt	2,023	2,023	2,023
Equity Value	1,166	1,793	2,727
(/) Outstanding shares	128	128	128
Fair Price	$9.10	$13.99	$21.27

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$5.37

Market Price

$25.00

Upside / Downside

-78.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.25

Dividend Yield

1.19%

Payout Ratio

18.6%

Dividend Coverage

5.39x

FCF Payout Ratio16.3%

DPS CAGR (2Y)127.3%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.25	18.6%	-97.9%
2024	$12.05	926.9%	+24780.6%
2023	$0.05	3.4%	—
2022	—	0.0%	—
2021	—	0.0%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$0.29	15.0%	0.9054	$0.26
2027	$0.33	15.0%	0.8198	$0.27
2028	$0.38	15.0%	0.7423	$0.28
2029	$0.44	15.0%	0.6721	$0.29
2030	$0.50	15.0%	0.6085	$0.31
Terminal Value	$0.52 DPS	2.5%		$3.95

PV of Projected Dividends$1.41

PV of Terminal Value$3.95

Fair Value per Share$5.37

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	13.0%	14.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%
8.4%	$7	$7	$7	$7	$7
9.4%	$6	$6	$6	$6	$6
10.4%	$5	$5	$5	$5	$5
11.4%	$4	$5	$5	$5	$5
12.4%	$4	$4	$4	$4	$4