Connect Biopharma Holdings Limited

CNTB

HealthcareBiotechnologyNASDAQ

$2.47

Market Cap: $139.61M

Connect Biopharma Holdings Limited (CNTB) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:25

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$1.29 – $3.76	$2.05	-28.4%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$1.49 – $4.33	$2.37	-17.2%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$2.35 – $24.02	$5.52	+93.0%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Connect Biopharma Holdings Limited (CNTB) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.37

Market Price

$2.47

Upside / Downside

-4.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -86.2% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.7%, Connect Biopharma Holdings Limited (CNTB) has an intrinsic value of $2.37 per share (range: $1.49 – $4.33).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-86.2%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	0	-99.7%	-66.3%	-0	-0	0	(0)	-1	1	1
2026	8	9921.5%	-46.4%	-4	-4	0	(0)	0	-4	-3
2027	21	173.0%	-26.5%	-5	-5	1	(1)	0	-6	-5
2028	23	14.1%	-6.6%	-2	-2	1	(1)	0	-2	-1
2029	64	170.9%	13.3%	8	7	2	(3)	1	4	3
2030	67	4.7%	13.3%	9	7	2	(3)	0	5	3
2031	70	4.3%	13.3%	9	7	2	(4)	0	5	3
2032	72	4.0%	13.3%	10	8	2	(4)	0	5	3
2033	75	3.7%	13.3%	10	8	2	(4)	0	5	3
2034	77	3.3%	13.3%	10	8	2	(5)	0	5	2

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)9

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)98

PV of Terminal Value44

Enterprise Value53

(–) Net Debt-78

Equity Value131

(÷) Shares Outstanding55

Fair Value per Share$2.37

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.7%	$2	$2	$3	$4	$4
7.7%	$2	$2	$3	$3	$4
8.7%	$2	$2	$2	$3	$3
9.7%	$2	$2	$2	$3	$3
10.7%	$1	$2	$2	$2	$3

Current price: $2.47. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 2.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Connect Biopharma Holdings Limited (CNTB) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.05

Market Price

$2.47

Upside / Downside

-17.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-86.2%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	0	-99.7%	-66.3%	-0	-0	0	(0)	-1	1	1
2026	8	9921.5%	-46.4%	-4	-4	0	(0)	0	-4	-3
2027	21	173.0%	-26.5%	-5	-5	1	(1)	0	-6	-5
2028	23	14.1%	-6.6%	-2	-2	1	(1)	0	-2	-2
2029	64	170.9%	13.3%	8	7	2	(4)	1	3	2

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-7

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)61

PV of Terminal Value42

Enterprise Value35

(–) Net Debt-78

Equity Value113

(÷) Shares Outstanding55

Fair Value per Share$2.05

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.7%	$1	$2	$3	$3	$4
7.7%	$1	$2	$2	$3	$3
8.7%	$1	$2	$2	$2	$3
9.7%	$1	$2	$2	$2	$3
10.7%	$1	$2	$2	$2	$2

Current price: $2.47. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 2.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$5.52

Market Price

$2.47

Upside / Downside

+123.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Connect Biopharma Holdings Limited (CNTB) has a fair value of $5.52 based on 4 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Connect Biopharma Holdings LimitedCNTB	136	2.2x	774.8x
Ovid Therapeutics Inc.OVID	347	47.9x	—
Sutro Biopharma, Inc.STRO	204	1.6x	4.6x
Metagenomi, Inc. Common StockMGX	51	2.0x	2.1x
ImageneBio IncIMA	51	32.4x	76.2x
Industry Median		17.2x	4.6x
(*) Revenue		26	0
= Enterprise Value		448	6
(-) Net Debt		-78	-78
Equity Value		526	84
(/) Outstanding shares		55	55
Fair Price		$10	$2

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$5.52

+123.4%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$1.29 – $3.76

$2.05

-28.4%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$1.49 – $4.33

$2.37

-17.2%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$2.35 – $24.02

$5.52

+93.0%

DCF Analysis

Connect Biopharma Holdings Limited (CNTB) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.37

Market Price

$2.47

Upside / Downside

-4.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-86.2%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	0	-99.7%	-66.3%	-0	-0	0	(0)	-1	1	1
2026	8	9921.5%	-46.4%	-4	-4	0	(0)	0	-4	-3
2027	21	173.0%	-26.5%	-5	-5	1	(1)	0	-6	-5
2028	23	14.1%	-6.6%	-2	-2	1	(1)	0	-2	-1
2029	64	170.9%	13.3%	8	7	2	(3)	1	4	3
2030	67	4.7%	13.3%	9	7	2	(3)	0	5	3
2031	70	4.3%	13.3%	9	7	2	(4)	0	5	3
2032	72	4.0%	13.3%	10	8	2	(4)	0	5	3
2033	75	3.7%	13.3%	10	8	2	(4)	0	5	3
2034	77	3.3%	13.3%	10	8	2	(5)	0	5	2

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)9

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)98

PV of Terminal Value44

Enterprise Value53

(–) Net Debt-78

Equity Value131

(÷) Shares Outstanding55

Fair Value per Share$2.37

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.7%	$2	$2	$3	$4	$4
7.7%	$2	$2	$3	$3	$4
8.7%	$2	$2	$2	$3	$3
9.7%	$2	$2	$2	$3	$3
10.7%	$1	$2	$2	$2	$3

Current price: $2.47. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 2.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$5.52

Market Price

$2.47

Upside / Downside

+123.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Connect Biopharma Holdings LimitedCNTB	136	2.2x	774.8x
Ovid Therapeutics Inc.OVID	347	47.9x	—
Sutro Biopharma, Inc.STRO	204	1.6x	4.6x
Metagenomi, Inc. Common StockMGX	51	2.0x	2.1x
ImageneBio IncIMA	51	32.4x	76.2x
Industry Median		17.2x	4.6x
(*) Revenue		26	0
= Enterprise Value		448	6
(-) Net Debt		-78	-78
Equity Value		526	84
(/) Outstanding shares		55	55
Fair Price		$10	$2

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$5.52

+123.4%