The Carlyle Group Inc.

Financial ServicesAsset ManagementNASDAQ

$50.63

Market Cap: $18.29B

The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) Valuation Summary

Updated May 9, 2026 17:05

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$97.41 – $9,749.91	$233.67	+361.5%
Growth Exit 10Y	$88.26 – $8,118.74	$201.13	+297.3%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$109.31 – $199.75	$150.86	+198.0%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$96.84 – $195.61	$139.35	+175.2%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$35.87 – $95.53	$72.74	+43.7%
EV/EBITDA	$18.52 – $50.80	$38.38	-24.2%
EV/Revenue	$64.81 – $97.30	$73.46	+45.1%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$102.76 – $102.76	$102.76	+103.0%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$63.60 – $141.31	$90.95	+79.6%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$23.80 – $58.50	$35.01	-30.9%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$233.67

Market Price

$50.63

Upside / Downside

+361.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The Carlyle Group Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -18.0% to -4.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 89, DPO 443, DIO 60). At a 5.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (89% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $233.67 per share, suggesting CG is undervalued by 361.5% at the current price of $50.63.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.07%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,830	2,422	2,760	2,703	2,589	2,654
(−) Net Interest	499	660	753	737	706	724
(+) D&A	65	72	83	93	99	102
EBITDA	2,394	3,154	3,596	3,533	3,394	3,479

(−) Tax	379	502	572	560	537	550
(−) CapEx	75	99	113	110	106	108
(−) ΔWC	190	61	35	-6	-12	-12
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	1,751	2,492	2,876	2,868	2,763	2,833

Terminal Value						110,328
WACC / Discount Rate	5.1%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,708	2,314	2,542	2,413	2,212	86,168

Enterprise Value	97,356
Projection Period	11,188	11.5%
Terminal Value	86,168	88.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	10,688

Equity Value	86,669
(/) Outstanding Shares	371

Fair Price	$233.67

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
3.1%	$422	$618	$1160	$9750	$134
4.1%	$246	$305	$401	$588	$1105
5.1%	$169	$196	$234	$290	$382
6.1%	$125	$140	$160	$186	$222
7.1%	$97	$107	$119	$133	$152

Current price: $50.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$201.13

Market Price

$50.63

Upside / Downside

+297.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The Carlyle Group Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -18.0% to 1.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 89, DPO 443, DIO 60). At a 5.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (76% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $201.13 per share, suggesting CG is undervalued by 297.3% at the current price of $50.63.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.07%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,830	2,422	2,760	2,703	2,589	2,510	2,465	2,449	2,464	2,508	2,571
(−) Net Interest	499	660	753	737	706	684	672	668	672	684	701
(+) D&A	65	72	83	93	99	101	106	106	104	102	104
EBITDA	2,394	3,154	3,596	3,533	3,394	3,295	3,243	3,224	3,239	3,294	3,376

(−) Tax	379	502	572	560	537	520	511	508	511	520	533
(−) CapEx	75	99	113	110	106	103	101	100	101	102	105
(−) ΔWC	190	61	35	-6	-12	-8	-5	-2	1	5	5
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	1,751	2,492	2,876	2,868	2,763	2,681	2,636	2,617	2,627	2,667	2,733

Terminal Value											106,470
WACC / Discount Rate	5.1%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,708	2,314	2,542	2,413	2,212	2,042	1,912	1,807	1,725	1,667	64,946

Enterprise Value	85,287
Projection Period	20,342	23.9%
Terminal Value	64,946	76.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	10,688

Equity Value	74,600
(/) Outstanding Shares	371

Fair Price	$201.13

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
3.1%	$379	$542	$992	$8119	$140
4.1%	$221	$268	$344	$492	$900
5.1%	$152	$173	$201	$243	$313
6.1%	$113	$124	$138	$157	$183
7.1%	$88	$95	$103	$113	$126

Current price: $50.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$150.86

Market Price

$50.63

Upside / Downside

+198.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The Carlyle Group Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -18.0% to -4.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 89, DPO 443, DIO 60). At a 5.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (83% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 20.4x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $150.86 per share, suggesting CG is undervalued by 198.0% at the current price of $50.63.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.07%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

20.41x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,830	2,422	2,760	2,703	2,589	2,654
(−) Net Interest	499	660	753	737	706	724
(+) D&A	65	72	83	93	99	102
EBITDA	2,394	3,154	3,596	3,533	3,394	3,479

(−) Tax	379	502	572	560	537	—
(−) CapEx	75	99	113	110	106	—
(−) ΔWC	190	61	35	-6	-12	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	1,751	2,492	2,876	2,868	2,763	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						20.4x
Terminal Value						71,002
WACC / Discount Rate	5.07%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,708	2,314	2,542	2,413	2,212	55,453

Enterprise Value	66,642
Projection Period	11,188	16.8%
Terminal Value	55,453	83.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	10,688
Equity Value	55,954
(÷) Outstanding Shares	371M
Fair Price	$151	+198.0%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	16.4x	18.4x	20.4x	22.4x	24.4x
3.1%	$135	$151	$167	$184	$200
4.1%	$128	$144	$159	$174	$190
5.1%	$122	$136	$151	$166	$180
6.1%	$115	$129	$143	$157	$171
7.1%	$109	$123	$136	$149	$163

Current price: $50.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$139.35

Market Price

$50.63

Upside / Downside

+175.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The Carlyle Group Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -18.0% to 1.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 89, DPO 443, DIO 60). At a 5.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (67% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 20.4x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $139.35 per share, suggesting CG is undervalued by 175.2% at the current price of $50.63.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.07%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

20.41x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,830	2,422	2,760	2,703	2,589	2,510	2,465	2,449	2,464	2,508	2,571
(−) Net Interest	499	660	753	737	706	684	672	668	672	684	701
(+) D&A	65	72	83	93	99	101	106	106	104	102	104
EBITDA	2,394	3,154	3,596	3,533	3,394	3,295	3,243	3,224	3,239	3,294	3,376

(−) Tax	379	502	572	560	537	520	511	508	511	520	—
(−) CapEx	75	99	113	110	106	103	101	100	101	102	—
(−) ΔWC	190	61	35	-6	-12	-8	-5	-2	1	5	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	1,751	2,492	2,876	2,868	2,763	2,681	2,636	2,617	2,627	2,667	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											20.4x
Terminal Value											68,904
WACC / Discount Rate	5.07%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,708	2,314	2,542	2,413	2,212	2,042	1,912	1,807	1,725	1,667	42,031

Enterprise Value	62,373
Projection Period	20,342	32.6%
Terminal Value	42,031	67.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	10,688
Equity Value	51,685
(÷) Outstanding Shares	371M
Fair Price	$139	+175.2%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	16.4x	18.4x	20.4x	22.4x	24.4x
3.1%	$142	$155	$169	$182	$196
4.1%	$129	$141	$153	$166	$178
5.1%	$117	$128	$139	$150	$162
6.1%	$107	$117	$127	$137	$147
7.1%	$97	$106	$115	$124	$134

Current price: $50.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$72.74

Market Price

$50.63

Upside / Downside

+43.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) has a fair value of $72.74 based on 10 comparable companies in the Asset Management industry.

P/E Valuation — Asset Management

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
The Carlyle Group Inc.CG	18,779	23.2x	12.6x
BlackRock, Inc.BLK	168,545	30.6x	23.0x
Blackstone Inc.BX	148,680	31.9x	23.1x
KKR & Co. Inc.KKR	91,402	43.8x	20.8x
Brookfield Asset Management Ltd.BAM	81,514	32.1x	30.5x
Apollo Global Management, Inc.APO	76,792	18.3x	16.8x
Ares Management CorporationARES	41,462	64.4x	25.2x
Blue Owl Capital Inc.OWL	16,508	88.0x	12.9x
Hamilton Lane IncorporatedHLNE	4,964	16.5x	17.8x
Golub Capital BDC, Inc.GBDC	3,428	9.3x	6.8x
Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc.TSLX	1,700	9.9x	7.8x
Industry Median		31.3x	19.3x
(*) Profit after tax		809	1,487
Equity Value		25,283	28,679
(/) Outstanding shares		371	371
Fair Price		$68	$77

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$72.74

+43.7%

Fair Value

$38.38

Market Price

$50.63

Upside / Downside

-24.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) has a fair value of $38.38 based on 10 comparable companies in the Asset Management industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Asset Management

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
The Carlyle Group Inc.CG	18,779	22.0x	28.4x
BlackRock, Inc.BLK	168,545	20.3x	20.5x
Blackstone Inc.BX	148,680	22.1x	24.0x
KKR & Co. Inc.KKR	91,402	20.5x	49.9x
Brookfield Asset Management Ltd.BAM	81,514	27.4x	24.8x
Apollo Global Management, Inc.APO	76,792	6.8x	11.2x
Ares Management CorporationARES	41,462	23.9x	33.7x
Blue Owl Capital Inc.OWL	16,508	21.4x	23.1x
Hamilton Lane IncorporatedHLNE	4,964	13.1x	13.7x
Golub Capital BDC, Inc.GBDC	3,428	12.1x	14.8x
Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc.TSLX	1,700	14.9x	11.3x
Industry Median		20.4x	21.8x
(*) EBITDA		1,337	1,036
= Enterprise Value		27,285	22,561
(-) Net Debt		10,688	10,688
Equity Value		16,597	11,873
(/) Outstanding shares		371	371
Fair Price		$45	$32

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$38.38

-24.2%

Fair Value

$73.46

Market Price

$50.63

Upside / Downside

+45.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) has a fair value of $73.46 based on 10 comparable companies in the Asset Management industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Asset Management

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
The Carlyle Group Inc.CG	18,779	6.0x	7.8x
BlackRock, Inc.BLK	168,545	7.1x	7.2x
Blackstone Inc.BX	148,680	11.5x	12.5x
KKR & Co. Inc.KKR	91,402	7.6x	18.5x
Brookfield Asset Management Ltd.BAM	81,514	17.1x	15.4x
Apollo Global Management, Inc.APO	76,792	2.3x	3.9x
Ares Management CorporationARES	41,462	8.5x	12.0x
Blue Owl Capital Inc.OWL	16,508	7.0x	7.6x
Hamilton Lane IncorporatedHLNE	4,964	7.1x	7.4x
Golub Capital BDC, Inc.GBDC	3,428	9.5x	11.7x
Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc.TSLX	1,700	9.6x	7.2x
Industry Median		8.0x	9.6x
(*) Revenue		4,898	3,795
= Enterprise Value		39,352	36,513
(-) Net Debt		10,688	10,688
Equity Value		28,664	25,825
(/) Outstanding shares		371	371
Fair Price		$77	$70

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$73.46

+45.1%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$102.76

Market Price

$50.63

Upside / Downside

+103.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0% plus 2.8% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $102.76 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $4.11. The current PEG ratio is 0.21.

PEG Ratio

0.21Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 12.3 ÷ (55.5% + 2.8%) = 0.21

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG moderately applicable

Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	55.5%
Dividend Yield	+2.8%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	25.0%
Fair P/E	25.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$4.11
Fair Value	$102.76

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$2.18	—	—
FY2026E	$4.11	+88.6%	5
FY2027E	$5.27	+28.2%	5

2Y Forward EPS CAGR: 55.5%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$3.0B	$8.20	—
FY2022	$1.2B	$3.35	-59.1%
FY2023	$-608.4M	$-1.68	-150.1%
FY2024	$1.0B	$2.77	—
FY2025	$808.7M	$2.18	-21.3%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -28.2%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$90.95

Market Price

$50.63

Upside / Downside

+79.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 5.1% and normalized earnings of $2.3B, the company has a fair value of $90.95 per share. The EPV range is $63.60 – $141.31 based on WACC sensitivity (3.6% – 6.6%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	2,251	2,251	2,251
(/) WACC	6.6%	5.1%	3.6%
Enterprise Value	34,276	44,422	63,101
(-) Net debt	10,688	10,688	10,688
Equity Value	23,588	33,734	52,413
(/) Outstanding shares	371	371	371
Fair Price	$63.60	$90.95	$141.31

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$35.01

Market Price

$50.63

Upside / Downside

-30.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 8.4% and projected dividend growth of 11.6%, the fair value is $35.01 per share. The DDM range is $23.80 – $58.50 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.36

Dividend Yield

2.76%

Payout Ratio

62.5%

Dividend Coverage

1.60x

FCF Payout Ratio37.0%

DPS CAGR (4Y)8.5%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$1.36	62.5%	-0.4%
2024	$1.37	49.3%	-0.8%
2023	$1.38	—	+13.5%
2022	$1.21	36.2%	+23.6%
2021	$0.98	12.0%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.52	11.6%	0.9228	$1.40
2027	$1.70	11.6%	0.8516	$1.44
2028	$1.89	11.6%	0.7858	$1.49
2029	$2.11	11.6%	0.7252	$1.53
2030	$2.36	11.6%	0.6692	$1.58
Terminal Value	$2.42 DPS	2.5%		$27.56

PV of Projected Dividends$7.44

PV of Terminal Value$27.56

Fair Value per Share$35.01

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	9.6%	10.6%	11.6%	12.6%	13.6%
6.4%	$49	$52	$54	$56	$59
7.4%	$39	$41	$42	$44	$46
8.4%	$32	$34	$35	$36	$38
9.4%	$27	$29	$30	$31	$32
10.4%	$24	$25	$26	$27	$28

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.