Avis Budget Group, Inc.

CAR

IndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesNASDAQ

$145.75

Market Cap: $5.15B

Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) Valuation Summary

Updated May 9, 2026 08:32

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$0.00 – $6,481.29	$369.47	+153.5%
Growth Exit 10Y	—	N/A	—
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$1,113.92 – $4,308.03	$2,572.84	+1665.2%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$806.07 – $4,176.27	$2,223.92	+1425.8%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	—	N/A	—
EV/EBITDA	$384.87 – $1,313.17	$616.42	+322.9%
EV/Revenue	—	N/A	—
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	—	N/A	—
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	—	N/A	—
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	—	N/A	—

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$369.47

Market Price

$145.75

Upside / Downside

+153.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Avis Budget Group, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.9% to 5.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 34, DPO 22, DIO 60). At a 6.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (81% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $369.47 per share, suggesting CAR is undervalued by 153.5% at the current price of $145.75.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.06%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,845	1,879	1,942	2,054	2,172	2,226
(−) Net Interest	521	531	549	580	614	629
(+) D&A	10,202	11,099	12,426	11,559	11,900	12,198
EBITDA	12,568	13,509	14,916	14,193	14,686	15,053

(−) Tax	391	399	412	436	461	472
(−) CapEx	10,568	10,766	11,126	11,767	12,445	12,756
(−) ΔWC	1,279	37	66	118	125	128
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	330	2,307	3,312	1,873	1,656	1,697

Terminal Value						47,724
WACC / Discount Rate	6.1%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	320	2,112	2,860	1,524	1,271	35,568

Enterprise Value	43,655
Projection Period	8,087	18.5%
Terminal Value	35,568	81.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	30,650

Equity Value	13,005
(/) Outstanding Shares	35

Fair Price	$369.47

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.1%	$917	$1293	$1911	$3114	$6481
5.1%	$424	$598	$839	$1197	$1786
6.1%	$148	$245	$369	$535	$765
7.1%	$0	$31	$106	$199	$317
8.1%	$0	$0	$0	$0	$66

Current price: $145.75. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$2,571.77

Market Price

$145.75

Upside / Downside

+1664.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Avis Budget Group, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.9% to 5.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 34, DPO 22, DIO 60). At a 6.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (93% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $2572.84 per share, suggesting CAR is undervalued by 1665.2% at the current price of $145.75.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.06%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

10.08x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,845	1,879	1,942	2,054	2,172	2,226
(−) Net Interest	521	531	549	580	614	629
(+) D&A	10,202	11,099	12,426	11,559	11,900	12,198
EBITDA	12,568	13,509	14,916	14,193	14,686	15,053

(−) Tax	391	399	412	436	461	—
(−) CapEx	10,568	10,766	11,126	11,767	12,445	—
(−) ΔWC	1,279	37	66	118	125	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	330	2,307	3,312	1,873	1,656	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						10.1x
Terminal Value						151,737
WACC / Discount Rate	6.06%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	320	2,112	2,860	1,524	1,271	113,089

Enterprise Value	121,176
Projection Period	8,087	6.7%
Terminal Value	113,089	93.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	30,650
Equity Value	90,526
(÷) Outstanding Shares	35M
Fair Price	$2572	+1664.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	6.1x	8.1x	10.1x	12.1x	14.1x
4.1%	$1504	$2205	$2906	$3607	$4308
5.1%	$1398	$2066	$2735	$3403	$4071
6.1%	$1298	$1935	$2573	$3210	$3848
7.1%	$1203	$1812	$2420	$3028	$3636
8.1%	$1114	$1695	$2275	$2856	$3436

Current price: $145.75. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$2,222.98

Market Price

$145.75

Upside / Downside

+1425.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Avis Budget Group, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.9% to 3.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 34, DPO 22, DIO 60). At a 6.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (90% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.1x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $2223.92 per share, suggesting CAR is undervalued by 1425.8% at the current price of $145.75.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.06%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

10.08x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,845	1,879	1,942	2,054	2,172	2,287	2,398	2,503	2,601	2,691	2,759
(−) Net Interest	521	531	549	580	614	646	678	707	735	761	780
(+) D&A	10,202	11,099	12,426	11,559	11,900	11,334	11,841	12,436	13,079	13,706	14,049
EBITDA	12,568	13,509	14,916	14,193	14,686	14,268	14,917	15,647	16,415	17,158	17,587

(−) Tax	391	399	412	436	461	485	509	531	552	571	—
(−) CapEx	10,568	10,766	11,126	11,767	12,445	13,104	13,739	14,341	14,903	15,418	—
(−) ΔWC	1,279	37	66	118	125	122	117	111	104	95	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	330	2,307	3,312	1,873	1,656	557	553	664	857	1,073	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											10.1x
Terminal Value											177,277
WACC / Discount Rate	6.06%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	320	2,112	2,860	1,524	1,271	403	377	427	520	614	98,471

Enterprise Value	108,899
Projection Period	10,428	9.6%
Terminal Value	98,471	90.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	30,650
Equity Value	78,249
(÷) Outstanding Shares	35M
Fair Price	$2223	+1425.2%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	6.1x	8.1x	10.1x	12.1x	14.1x
4.1%	$1490	$2162	$2833	$3505	$4176
5.1%	$1293	$1903	$2513	$3123	$3733
6.1%	$1114	$1669	$2224	$2779	$3334
7.1%	$952	$1458	$1963	$2468	$2974
8.1%	$806	$1267	$1727	$2187	$2648

Current price: $145.75. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$616.42

Market Price

$145.75

Upside / Downside

+322.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) has a fair value of $616.42 based on 8 comparable companies in the Rental & Leasing Services industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Rental & Leasing Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Avis Budget Group, Inc.CAR	5,130	6.8x	6.7x
EnerSysENS	8,469	16.7x	16.7x
GATX CorporationGATX	6,623	14.6x	16.1x
Icahn Enterprises L.P.IEP	5,390	11.3x	9.7x
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V.OMAB	5,201	11.7x	—
Alaska Air Group, Inc.ALK	4,628	8.4x	7.6x
Herc Holdings Inc.HRI	4,461	8.9x	11.0x
The Brink's CompanyBCO	4,415	7.9x	7.4x
Maximus, Inc.MMS	3,506	7.0x	7.4x
Industry Median		10.1x	9.7x
(*) EBITDA		5,250	5,320
= Enterprise Value		52,938	51,758
(-) Net Debt		30,650	30,650
Equity Value		22,288	21,108
(/) Outstanding shares		35	35
Fair Price		$633	$600

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$616.42

+322.9%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Growth Exit 5Y

$0.00 – $6,481.29

$369.47

+153.5%

Growth Exit 10Y

—

N/A

—

EBITDA Exit 5Y

$1,113.92 – $4,308.03

$2,572.84

+1665.2%

EBITDA Exit 10Y

$806.07 – $4,176.27

$2,223.92

+1425.8%

▸ Trading Multiples

P/E

—

N/A

—

EV/EBITDA

$384.87 – $1,313.17

$616.42

+322.9%

EV/Revenue

—

N/A

—

▸ PEG

PEG Fair Value

—

N/A

—

▸ Earnings Power Value

Earnings Power Value

—

N/A

—

▸ Dividend Discount

Dividend Discount

—

N/A

—

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$369.47

Market Price

$145.75

Upside / Downside

+153.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.06%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,845	1,879	1,942	2,054	2,172	2,226
(−) Net Interest	521	531	549	580	614	629
(+) D&A	10,202	11,099	12,426	11,559	11,900	12,198
EBITDA	12,568	13,509	14,916	14,193	14,686	15,053

(−) Tax	391	399	412	436	461	472
(−) CapEx	10,568	10,766	11,126	11,767	12,445	12,756
(−) ΔWC	1,279	37	66	118	125	128
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	330	2,307	3,312	1,873	1,656	1,697

Terminal Value						47,724
WACC / Discount Rate	6.1%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	320	2,112	2,860	1,524	1,271	35,568

Enterprise Value	43,655
Projection Period	8,087	18.5%
Terminal Value	35,568	81.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	30,650

Equity Value	13,005
(/) Outstanding Shares	35

Fair Price	$369.47

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.1%	$917	$1293	$1911	$3114	$6481
5.1%	$424	$598	$839	$1197	$1786
6.1%	$148	$245	$369	$535	$765
7.1%	$0	$31	$106	$199	$317
8.1%	$0	$0	$0	$0	$66

Current price: $145.75. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$2,571.77

Market Price

$145.75

Upside / Downside

+1664.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Avis Budget Group, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.9% to 5.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 34, DPO 22, DIO 60). At a 6.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (93% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $2572.84 per share, suggesting CAR is undervalued by 1665.2% at the current price of $145.75.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.06%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

10.08x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,845	1,879	1,942	2,054	2,172	2,226
(−) Net Interest	521	531	549	580	614	629
(+) D&A	10,202	11,099	12,426	11,559	11,900	12,198
EBITDA	12,568	13,509	14,916	14,193	14,686	15,053

(−) Tax	391	399	412	436	461	—
(−) CapEx	10,568	10,766	11,126	11,767	12,445	—
(−) ΔWC	1,279	37	66	118	125	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	330	2,307	3,312	1,873	1,656	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						10.1x
Terminal Value						151,737
WACC / Discount Rate	6.06%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	320	2,112	2,860	1,524	1,271	113,089

Enterprise Value	121,176
Projection Period	8,087	6.7%
Terminal Value	113,089	93.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	30,650
Equity Value	90,526
(÷) Outstanding Shares	35M
Fair Price	$2572	+1664.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	6.1x	8.1x	10.1x	12.1x	14.1x
4.1%	$1504	$2205	$2906	$3607	$4308
5.1%	$1398	$2066	$2735	$3403	$4071
6.1%	$1298	$1935	$2573	$3210	$3848
7.1%	$1203	$1812	$2420	$3028	$3636
8.1%	$1114	$1695	$2275	$2856	$3436

Current price: $145.75. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$2,222.98

Market Price

$145.75

Upside / Downside

+1425.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.06%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

10.08x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,845	1,879	1,942	2,054	2,172	2,287	2,398	2,503	2,601	2,691	2,759
(−) Net Interest	521	531	549	580	614	646	678	707	735	761	780
(+) D&A	10,202	11,099	12,426	11,559	11,900	11,334	11,841	12,436	13,079	13,706	14,049
EBITDA	12,568	13,509	14,916	14,193	14,686	14,268	14,917	15,647	16,415	17,158	17,587

(−) Tax	391	399	412	436	461	485	509	531	552	571	—
(−) CapEx	10,568	10,766	11,126	11,767	12,445	13,104	13,739	14,341	14,903	15,418	—
(−) ΔWC	1,279	37	66	118	125	122	117	111	104	95	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	330	2,307	3,312	1,873	1,656	557	553	664	857	1,073	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											10.1x
Terminal Value											177,277
WACC / Discount Rate	6.06%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	320	2,112	2,860	1,524	1,271	403	377	427	520	614	98,471

Enterprise Value	108,899
Projection Period	10,428	9.6%
Terminal Value	98,471	90.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	30,650
Equity Value	78,249
(÷) Outstanding Shares	35M
Fair Price	$2223	+1425.2%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	6.1x	8.1x	10.1x	12.1x	14.1x
4.1%	$1490	$2162	$2833	$3505	$4176
5.1%	$1293	$1903	$2513	$3123	$3733
6.1%	$1114	$1669	$2224	$2779	$3334
7.1%	$952	$1458	$1963	$2468	$2974
8.1%	$806	$1267	$1727	$2187	$2648

Current price: $145.75. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$616.42

Market Price

$145.75

Upside / Downside

+322.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Rental & Leasing Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Avis Budget Group, Inc.CAR	5,130	6.8x	6.7x
EnerSysENS	8,469	16.7x	16.7x
GATX CorporationGATX	6,623	14.6x	16.1x
Icahn Enterprises L.P.IEP	5,390	11.3x	9.7x
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V.OMAB	5,201	11.7x	—
Alaska Air Group, Inc.ALK	4,628	8.4x	7.6x
Herc Holdings Inc.HRI	4,461	8.9x	11.0x
The Brink's CompanyBCO	4,415	7.9x	7.4x
Maximus, Inc.MMS	3,506	7.0x	7.4x
Industry Median		10.1x	9.7x
(*) EBITDA		5,250	5,320
= Enterprise Value		52,938	51,758
(-) Net Debt		30,650	30,650
Equity Value		22,288	21,108
(/) Outstanding shares		35	35
Fair Price		$633	$600

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$616.42

+322.9%