Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Barnes & Noble Education, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.4% to 3.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 26, DPO 63, DIO 102). At a 7.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (123% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 29.0x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $0.07 per share, suggesting BNED is overvalued by 99.3% at the current price of $9.41.
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| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -24 | -25 | -26 | -27 | -28 | -29 |
| (−) Net Interest | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 21 |
| (+) D&A | 23 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 24 | 24 |
| EBITDA | 16 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 17 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -15 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 6 | -19 | -22 | -23 | -22 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 29.0x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 490 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.64% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 6 | -17 | -18 | -18 | -16 | 339 |
| Enterprise Value | 276 | |||||
| Projection Period | -64 | -23.0% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 339 | 123.0% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 274 | |||||
| Equity Value | 2 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 26M | |||||
| Fair Price | $0 | -99.3% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 25.0x | 27.0x | 29.0x | 31.0x | 33.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | $0 | $0 | $1 | $2 | $3 |
| 6.6% | $0 | $0 | $1 | $2 | $2 |
| 7.6% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1 | $2 |
| 8.6% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1 |
| 9.6% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1 |
Current price: $9.41. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Barnes & Noble Education, Inc. (BNED) has a fair value of $26.63 based on 9 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barnes & Noble Education, Inc.BNED | 247 | 0.3x | 0.4x |
| El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. | 428 | 1.4x | 1.4x |
| Citi Trends, Inc. | 382 | 0.7x | 0.6x |
| Holley Inc. | 361 | 1.4x | 1.3x |
| Genesco Inc. | 321 | 0.3x | 0.3x |
| The Honest Company, Inc. | 313 | 0.6x | 0.6x |
| 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. | 204 | 0.3x | 0.2x |
| Jack in the Box Inc. | 203 | 2.2x | 2.1x |
| Empery Digital Inc. | 138 | 183.9x | 43.7x |
| BARK, Inc. | 85 | 0.2x | 0.2x |
| Industry Median | 0.7x | 0.6x | |
| (*) Revenue | 1,610 | 1,442 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 1,060 | 889 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 274 | 274 | |
| Equity Value | 786 | 615 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 26 | 26 | |
| Fair Price | $30 | $23 | |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.