BGM Group Ltd.

BGM

HealthcareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericNASDAQ

$0.26

Market Cap: $52.58M

BGM Group Ltd. (BGM) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:25

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$2.16 – $9.49	$4.50	+1249.1%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$1.93 – $6.86	$3.54	+963.7%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$6.09 – $29.88	$9.18	+2656.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

BGM Group Ltd. (BGM) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$3.54

Market Price

$0.26

Upside / Downside

+1250.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -2.3% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.7%, BGM Group Ltd. (BGM) has an intrinsic value of $3.54 per share (range: $1.93 – $6.86).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-2.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

7.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.7%

Tax Rate

11.7%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	23	-10.0%	0.9%	0	0	1	(2)	-1	-0	-0
2026	20	-10.0%	4.0%	1	1	1	(1)	-1	0	0
2027	18	-10.0%	7.1%	1	1	1	(1)	-1	1	1
2028	17	-9.0%	10.2%	2	2	0	(1)	-0	1	1
2029	15	-7.3%	13.3%	2	2	0	(1)	-0	2	1
2030	15	-5.6%	13.3%	2	2	0	(1)	-0	1	1
2031	14	-3.9%	13.3%	2	2	0	(1)	-0	1	1
2032	14	-2.1%	13.3%	2	2	0	(1)	-0	1	1
2033	14	-0.4%	13.3%	2	2	0	(1)	-0	1	1
2034	14	1.3%	13.3%	2	2	0	(1)	0	1	1

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)7

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)20

PV of Terminal Value9

Enterprise Value16

(–) Net Debt-10

Equity Value26

(÷) Shares Outstanding7

Fair Value per Share$3.54

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.7%	$3	$4	$5	$6	$7
7.7%	$2	$3	$4	$5	$6
8.7%	$2	$3	$4	$4	$5
9.7%	$2	$3	$3	$4	$4
10.7%	$2	$2	$3	$4	$4

Current price: $0.26. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 26.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

BGM Group Ltd. (BGM) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$4.50

Market Price

$0.26

Upside / Downside

+1616.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-2.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

7.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.7%

Tax Rate

11.7%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	23	-10.0%	0.9%	0	0	1	(2)	-1	0	0
2026	20	-9.6%	4.0%	1	1	1	(1)	-1	0	0
2027	19	-6.4%	7.1%	1	1	1	(1)	-0	1	1
2028	18	-3.3%	10.2%	2	2	1	(1)	-0	1	1
2029	18	-0.1%	13.3%	2	2	1	(1)	-0	2	1

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)3

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)29

PV of Terminal Value20

Enterprise Value23

(–) Net Debt-10

Equity Value32

(÷) Shares Outstanding7

Fair Value per Share$4.50

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.7%	$3	$5	$6	$8	$9
7.7%	$3	$4	$5	$6	$8
8.7%	$2	$3	$5	$6	$7
9.7%	$2	$3	$4	$5	$6
10.7%	$2	$3	$4	$4	$5

Current price: $0.26. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 26.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$9.18

Market Price

$0.26

Upside / Downside

+3403.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), BGM Group Ltd. (BGM) has a fair value of $9.18 based on 7 comparable companies in the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
BGM Group Ltd.BGM	2	-0.3x	—
Twist Bioscience CorporationTWST	3,138	8.2x	7.0x
Phibro Animal Health CorporationPAHC	2,227	2.3x	2.9x
Mesoblast LimitedMESO	1,914	109.3x	14.7x
ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.ANIP	1,734	2.0x	1.6x
PROCEPT BioRobotics CorporationPRCT	1,341	3.6x	2.8x
QuidelOrtho CorporationQDEL	1,081	1.4x	1.3x
Clover Health Investments, Corp.CLOV	957	0.5x	0.3x
Industry Median		2.3x	2.8x
(*) Revenue		25
= Enterprise Value		57
(-) Net Debt		-10
Equity Value		66
(/) Outstanding shares		7
Fair Price		$9

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$2.16 – $9.49

$4.50

+1249.1%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$1.93 – $6.86

$3.54

+963.7%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$6.09 – $29.88

$9.18

+2656.2%

DCF Analysis

BGM Group Ltd. (BGM) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$3.54

Market Price

$0.26

Upside / Downside

+1250.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-2.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

7.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.7%

Tax Rate

11.7%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	23	-10.0%	0.9%	0	0	1	(2)	-1	-0	-0
2026	20	-10.0%	4.0%	1	1	1	(1)	-1	0	0
2027	18	-10.0%	7.1%	1	1	1	(1)	-1	1	1
2028	17	-9.0%	10.2%	2	2	0	(1)	-0	1	1
2029	15	-7.3%	13.3%	2	2	0	(1)	-0	2	1
2030	15	-5.6%	13.3%	2	2	0	(1)	-0	1	1
2031	14	-3.9%	13.3%	2	2	0	(1)	-0	1	1
2032	14	-2.1%	13.3%	2	2	0	(1)	-0	1	1
2033	14	-0.4%	13.3%	2	2	0	(1)	-0	1	1
2034	14	1.3%	13.3%	2	2	0	(1)	0	1	1

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)7

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)20

PV of Terminal Value9

Enterprise Value16

(–) Net Debt-10

Equity Value26

(÷) Shares Outstanding7

Fair Value per Share$3.54

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.7%	$3	$4	$5	$6	$7
7.7%	$2	$3	$4	$5	$6
8.7%	$2	$3	$4	$4	$5
9.7%	$2	$3	$3	$4	$4
10.7%	$2	$2	$3	$4	$4

Current price: $0.26. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 26.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$9.18

Market Price

$0.26

Upside / Downside

+3403.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
BGM Group Ltd.BGM	2	-0.3x	—
Twist Bioscience CorporationTWST	3,138	8.2x	7.0x
Phibro Animal Health CorporationPAHC	2,227	2.3x	2.9x
Mesoblast LimitedMESO	1,914	109.3x	14.7x
ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.ANIP	1,734	2.0x	1.6x
PROCEPT BioRobotics CorporationPRCT	1,341	3.6x	2.8x
QuidelOrtho CorporationQDEL	1,081	1.4x	1.3x
Clover Health Investments, Corp.CLOV	957	0.5x	0.3x
Industry Median		2.3x	2.8x
(*) Revenue		25
= Enterprise Value		57
(-) Net Debt		-10
Equity Value		66
(/) Outstanding shares		7
Fair Price		$9