Bicycle Therapeutics plc

BCYC

HealthcareBiotechnologyNASDAQ

$4.70

Market Cap: $325.53M

Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 28, 2026 22:22

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$2.84 – $3.82	$3.35	-28.5%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.03 – $2.58	$0.68	-85.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$14.25 – $24.20	$17.92	+282.1%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.68

Market Price

$4.70

Upside / Downside

-85.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -340.4% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.2%, Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) has an intrinsic value of $0.68 per share (range: $0.03 – $2.58).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-340.4%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

33.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

24.6%

D&A/Revenue

16.4%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	31	-56.8%	-269.6%	-85	-85	5	(10)	-6	-83	-80
2027	29	-8.2%	-198.9%	-57	-57	5	(9)	-2	-60	-53
2028	66	129.2%	-128.2%	-84	-84	11	(20)	23	-117	-96
2029	126	91.3%	-57.4%	-72	-72	21	(38)	38	-127	-96
2030	267	111.9%	13.3%	36	28	44	(77)	88	-94	-66
2031	347	30.0%	13.3%	46	37	57	(98)	50	-54	-35
2032	452	30.0%	13.3%	60	48	74	(123)	65	-66	-40
2033	587	30.0%	13.3%	78	62	96	(155)	85	-81	-45
2034	712	21.3%	13.3%	95	75	117	(182)	78	-68	-35
2035	799	12.1%	13.3%	107	84	131	(197)	54	-36	-17

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-563

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value-563

(–) Net Debt-611

Equity Value47

(÷) Shares Outstanding69

Fair Value per Share$0.68

Note:Terminal value is $0 because Year 5 FCFF is negative. The company's operating margin convergence does not fully offset reinvestment needs within 5 years. See the sensitivity matrix for scenarios where the model produces a positive terminal value (higher target margin or lower WACC).

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.2%	$-1	$-1	$0	$1	$2
7.2%	$-1	$-0	$0	$1	$2
8.2%	$-1	$0	$1	$1	$2
9.2%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$2
10.2%	$0	$1	$1	$2	$3

Current price: $4.70. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 62.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$3.35

Market Price

$4.70

Upside / Downside

-28.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-340.4%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

33.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

24.6%

D&A/Revenue

16.4%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	31	-56.8%	-269.6%	-85	-85	5	(10)	-6	-83	-80
2027	29	-8.2%	-198.9%	-57	-57	5	(9)	-2	-59	-53
2028	66	129.2%	-128.2%	-84	-84	11	(19)	23	-115	-95
2029	126	91.3%	-57.4%	-72	-72	21	(33)	38	-123	-93
2030	267	111.9%	13.3%	36	28	44	(66)	88	-82	-58

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-378

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value-378

(–) Net Debt-611

Equity Value232

(÷) Shares Outstanding69

Fair Value per Share$3.35

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.2%	$3	$3	$3	$3	$3
7.2%	$3	$3	$3	$3	$3
8.2%	$3	$3	$3	$3	$4
9.2%	$3	$3	$3	$4	$4
10.2%	$3	$3	$4	$4	$4

Current price: $4.70. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 62.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$16.47

Market Price

$4.70

Upside / Downside

+250.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) has a fair value of $16.47 based on 5 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Bicycle Therapeutics plcBCYC	326	-3.9x	-12.9x
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc.LXRX	703	14.7x	21.6x
Prothena Corporation plcPRTA	620	33.7x	3.7x
4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc.FDMT	481	5.2x	50.4x
ADC Therapeutics S.A.ADCT	480	8.1x	8.2x
Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc.FULC	403	4.4x	—
Industry Median		8.1x	14.9x
(*) Revenue		73	22
= Enterprise Value		586	475
(-) Net Debt		-611	-611
Equity Value		1,197	1,086
(/) Outstanding shares		69	69
Fair Price		$17	$16

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$16.47

+250.5%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 28, 2026 22:22

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$2.84 – $3.82	$3.35	-28.5%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.03 – $2.58	$0.68	-85.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$14.25 – $24.20	$17.92	+282.1%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.68

Market Price

$4.70

Upside / Downside

-85.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-340.4%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

33.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

24.6%

D&A/Revenue

16.4%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	31	-56.8%	-269.6%	-85	-85	5	(10)	-6	-83	-80
2027	29	-8.2%	-198.9%	-57	-57	5	(9)	-2	-60	-53
2028	66	129.2%	-128.2%	-84	-84	11	(20)	23	-117	-96
2029	126	91.3%	-57.4%	-72	-72	21	(38)	38	-127	-96
2030	267	111.9%	13.3%	36	28	44	(77)	88	-94	-66
2031	347	30.0%	13.3%	46	37	57	(98)	50	-54	-35
2032	452	30.0%	13.3%	60	48	74	(123)	65	-66	-40
2033	587	30.0%	13.3%	78	62	96	(155)	85	-81	-45
2034	712	21.3%	13.3%	95	75	117	(182)	78	-68	-35
2035	799	12.1%	13.3%	107	84	131	(197)	54	-36	-17

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-563

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value-563

(–) Net Debt-611

Equity Value47

(÷) Shares Outstanding69

Fair Value per Share$0.68

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.2%	$-1	$-1	$0	$1	$2
7.2%	$-1	$-0	$0	$1	$2
8.2%	$-1	$0	$1	$1	$2
9.2%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$2
10.2%	$0	$1	$1	$2	$3

Current price: $4.70. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 62.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$3.35

Market Price

$4.70

Upside / Downside

-28.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-340.4%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

33.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

24.6%

D&A/Revenue

16.4%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	31	-56.8%	-269.6%	-85	-85	5	(10)	-6	-83	-80
2027	29	-8.2%	-198.9%	-57	-57	5	(9)	-2	-59	-53
2028	66	129.2%	-128.2%	-84	-84	11	(19)	23	-115	-95
2029	126	91.3%	-57.4%	-72	-72	21	(33)	38	-123	-93
2030	267	111.9%	13.3%	36	28	44	(66)	88	-82	-58

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-378

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value-378

(–) Net Debt-611

Equity Value232

(÷) Shares Outstanding69

Fair Value per Share$3.35

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.2%	$3	$3	$3	$3	$3
7.2%	$3	$3	$3	$3	$3
8.2%	$3	$3	$3	$3	$4
9.2%	$3	$3	$3	$4	$4
10.2%	$3	$3	$4	$4	$4

Current price: $4.70. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 62.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$16.47

Market Price

$4.70

Upside / Downside

+250.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) has a fair value of $16.47 based on 5 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Bicycle Therapeutics plcBCYC	326	-3.9x	-12.9x
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc.LXRX	703	14.7x	21.6x
Prothena Corporation plcPRTA	620	33.7x	3.7x
4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc.FDMT	481	5.2x	50.4x
ADC Therapeutics S.A.ADCT	480	8.1x	8.2x
Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc.FULC	403	4.4x	—
Industry Median		8.1x	14.9x
(*) Revenue		73	22
= Enterprise Value		586	475
(-) Net Debt		-611	-611
Equity Value		1,197	1,086
(/) Outstanding shares		69	69
Fair Price		$17	$16

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$16.47

+250.5%