Aterian, Inc.

ATER

Consumer CyclicalFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesNASDAQ

$1.06

Market Cap: $11.47M

Aterian, Inc. (ATER) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 27, 2026 22:21

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.21 – $8.91	$1.61	+145.1%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.34 – $5.29	$0.73	+10.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$2.35 – $17.06	$19.90	+2931.3%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Aterian, Inc. (ATER) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.73

Market Price

$1.06

Upside / Downside

-31.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -17.8% to a target of 7.7% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 10.3%, Aterian, Inc. (ATER) has an intrinsic value of $0.73 per share (range: $0.34 – $5.29).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-17.8%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

10.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	75	8.9%	-12.7%	-10	-10	2	(0)	-1	-7	-7
2027	80	7.0%	-7.6%	-6	-6	2	(1)	1	-6	-5
2028	72	-10.0%	-2.5%	-2	-2	2	(1)	-1	0	0
2029	65	-10.0%	2.6%	2	1	2	(2)	-1	3	2
2030	59	-10.0%	7.7%	5	4	2	(2)	-1	4	3
2031	53	-10.0%	7.7%	4	3	1	(2)	-1	4	2
2032	47	-10.0%	7.7%	4	3	1	(2)	-1	3	2
2033	43	-10.0%	7.7%	3	3	1	(2)	-1	2	1
2034	40	-7.1%	7.7%	3	2	1	(2)	-1	2	1
2035	39	-2.1%	7.7%	3	2	1	(2)	-0	1	0

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-1

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)17

PV of Terminal Value7

Enterprise Value6

(–) Net Debt-0

Equity Value6

(÷) Shares Outstanding8

Fair Value per Share$0.73

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
8.3%	$-2	$-1	$1	$3	$5
9.3%	$-2	$-1	$1	$3	$4
10.3%	$-2	$-1	$1	$2	$4
11.3%	$-2	$-1	$1	$2	$3
12.3%	$-2	$-1	$0	$2	$3

Current price: $1.06. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 16.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Aterian, Inc. (ATER) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.61

Market Price

$1.06

Upside / Downside

+51.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-17.8%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

10.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	75	8.9%	-12.7%	-10	-10	2	(1)	-1	-8	-7
2027	80	7.0%	-7.6%	-6	-6	2	(2)	1	-7	-6
2028	72	-10.0%	-2.5%	-2	-2	2	(3)	-1	-1	-1
2029	65	-10.0%	2.6%	2	1	2	(3)	-1	1	1
2030	59	-10.0%	7.7%	5	4	2	(4)	-1	3	2

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-12

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)38

PV of Terminal Value24

Enterprise Value13

(–) Net Debt-0

Equity Value13

(÷) Shares Outstanding8

Fair Value per Share$1.61

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
8.3%	$-3	$0	$3	$6	$9
9.3%	$-3	$-0	$2	$5	$7
10.3%	$-3	$-0	$2	$4	$6
11.3%	$-2	$-1	$1	$3	$5
12.3%	$-2	$-1	$1	$2	$4

Current price: $1.06. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 16.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$19.90

Market Price

$1.06

Upside / Downside

+1777.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Aterian, Inc. (ATER) has a fair value of $19.90 based on 7 comparable companies in the Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Aterian, Inc.ATER	8	0.1x	0.1x
Workhorse Group Inc.WKHS	27	2.0x	3.5x
Reborn Coffee, Inc.REBN	14	2.2x	4.5x
FGI Industries Ltd.FGI	13	0.3x	0.3x
BT Brands, Inc.BTBD	11	0.9x	—
DSS, Inc.DSS	5	1.7x	0.7x
Cenntro Electric Group LimitedCENN	4	0.2x	—
Fly-E Group, Inc. Common StockFLYE	2	0.8x	—
Industry Median		0.9x	2.1x
(*) Revenue		69	121
= Enterprise Value		60	255
(-) Net Debt		-0	-0
Equity Value		61	255
(/) Outstanding shares		8	8
Fair Price		$8	$32

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$19.90

+1777.4%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.21 – $8.91

$1.61

+145.1%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.34 – $5.29

$0.73

+10.6%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$2.35 – $17.06

$19.90

+2931.3%

DCF Analysis

Aterian, Inc. (ATER) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.73

Market Price

$1.06

Upside / Downside

-31.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-17.8%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

10.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	75	8.9%	-12.7%	-10	-10	2	(0)	-1	-7	-7
2027	80	7.0%	-7.6%	-6	-6	2	(1)	1	-6	-5
2028	72	-10.0%	-2.5%	-2	-2	2	(1)	-1	0	0
2029	65	-10.0%	2.6%	2	1	2	(2)	-1	3	2
2030	59	-10.0%	7.7%	5	4	2	(2)	-1	4	3
2031	53	-10.0%	7.7%	4	3	1	(2)	-1	4	2
2032	47	-10.0%	7.7%	4	3	1	(2)	-1	3	2
2033	43	-10.0%	7.7%	3	3	1	(2)	-1	2	1
2034	40	-7.1%	7.7%	3	2	1	(2)	-1	2	1
2035	39	-2.1%	7.7%	3	2	1	(2)	-0	1	0

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-1

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)17

PV of Terminal Value7

Enterprise Value6

(–) Net Debt-0

Equity Value6

(÷) Shares Outstanding8

Fair Value per Share$0.73

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
8.3%	$-2	$-1	$1	$3	$5
9.3%	$-2	$-1	$1	$3	$4
10.3%	$-2	$-1	$1	$2	$4
11.3%	$-2	$-1	$1	$2	$3
12.3%	$-2	$-1	$0	$2	$3

Current price: $1.06. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 16.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$19.90

Market Price

$1.06

Upside / Downside

+1777.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Aterian, Inc.ATER	8	0.1x	0.1x
Workhorse Group Inc.WKHS	27	2.0x	3.5x
Reborn Coffee, Inc.REBN	14	2.2x	4.5x
FGI Industries Ltd.FGI	13	0.3x	0.3x
BT Brands, Inc.BTBD	11	0.9x	—
DSS, Inc.DSS	5	1.7x	0.7x
Cenntro Electric Group LimitedCENN	4	0.2x	—
Fly-E Group, Inc. Common StockFLYE	2	0.8x	—
Industry Median		0.9x	2.1x
(*) Revenue		69	121
= Enterprise Value		60	255
(-) Net Debt		-0	-0
Equity Value		61	255
(/) Outstanding shares		8	8
Fair Price		$8	$32

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$19.90

+1777.4%