Atlas Critical Minerals Corporation

ATCX

Basic MaterialsGoldNASDAQ

$5.55

Market Cap: $15.42M

Atlas Critical Minerals Corporation (ATCX) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:24

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.23 – $36.87	$8.76	+39.9%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.18 – $46.23	$13.69	+118.7%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	-$0.24 – $32.38	$13.64	+118.0%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Atlas Critical Minerals Corporation (ATCX) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$13.69

Market Price

$5.55

Upside / Downside

+146.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from 6.6% to a target of 12.9% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.5%, Atlas Critical Minerals Corporation (ATCX) has an intrinsic value of $13.69 per share (range: $0.18 – $46.23).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

6.6%

Target Operating Margin

12.9%

WACC

9.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

2.5%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.3%

D&A/Revenue

4.9%

Tax Rate

14.3%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2023	657	8.7%	7.9%	52	44	32	(12)	11	53	51
2024	690	5.0%	9.1%	63	54	34	(17)	7	63	55
2025	718	4.0%	10.4%	75	64	35	(22)	6	70	56
2026	771	7.4%	11.7%	90	77	38	(29)	12	74	54
2027	823	6.8%	12.9%	106	91	40	(35)	12	84	56
2028	874	6.2%	12.9%	113	97	43	(43)	12	85	52
2029	922	5.5%	12.9%	119	102	45	(51)	11	85	47
2030	967	4.9%	12.9%	125	107	47	(59)	10	85	43
2031	1,009	4.3%	12.9%	130	112	49	(68)	9	84	39
2032	1,045	3.6%	12.9%	135	116	51	(76)	8	82	35

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)487

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 2.5%)1,202

PV of Terminal Value509

Enterprise Value995

(–) Net Debt498

Equity Value497

(÷) Shares Outstanding36

Fair Value per Share$13.69

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	6.9%	9.9%	12.9%	15.9%	18.9%
7.5%	$2	$13	$24	$35	$46
8.5%	$0	$9	$18	$27	$36
9.5%	$-1	$6	$14	$21	$29
10.5%	$-3	$4	$10	$17	$23
11.5%	$-4	$2	$8	$13	$19

Current price: $5.55. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 22.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Atlas Critical Minerals Corporation (ATCX) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$8.76

Market Price

$5.55

Upside / Downside

+57.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

6.6%

Target Operating Margin

12.9%

WACC

9.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

2.5%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.3%

D&A/Revenue

4.9%

Tax Rate

14.3%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2023	657	8.7%	7.9%	52	44	32	(16)	11	49	47
2024	690	5.0%	9.1%	63	54	34	(26)	7	55	48
2025	718	4.0%	10.4%	75	64	35	(35)	6	57	46
2026	760	5.8%	11.7%	88	76	37	(46)	10	57	41
2027	793	4.4%	12.9%	102	88	39	(58)	8	61	40

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)222

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 2.5%)892

PV of Terminal Value594

Enterprise Value816

(–) Net Debt498

Equity Value318

(÷) Shares Outstanding36

Fair Value per Share$8.76

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	6.9%	9.9%	12.9%	15.9%	18.9%
7.5%	$-2	$8	$18	$27	$37
8.5%	$-3	$5	$12	$20	$28
9.5%	$-5	$2	$9	$15	$22
10.5%	$-6	$0	$6	$12	$18
11.5%	$-6	$-1	$4	$9	$14

Current price: $5.55. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 22.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$13.64

Market Price

$5.55

Upside / Downside

+145.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Atlas Critical Minerals Corporation (ATCX) has a fair value of $13.64 based on 3 comparable companies in the Gold industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Gold

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Atlas Critical Minerals CorporationATCX	202	1.2x	1.0x
CECO Environmental Corp.CECO	2,152	2.8x	3.8x
Strata Critical Medical, Inc.SRTA	365	1.7x	1.4x
Pamt Corp.PAMT	186	0.8x	0.5x
Industry Median		1.7x	1.4x
(*) Revenue		605	690
= Enterprise Value		1,036	952
(-) Net Debt		498	498
Equity Value		537	453
(/) Outstanding shares		36	36
Fair Price		$15	$12

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$13.64

+145.8%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.23 – $36.87

$8.76

+39.9%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.18 – $46.23

$13.69

+118.7%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

-$0.24 – $32.38

$13.64

+118.0%

DCF Analysis

Atlas Critical Minerals Corporation (ATCX) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$13.69

Market Price

$5.55

Upside / Downside

+146.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

6.6%

Target Operating Margin

12.9%

WACC

9.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

2.5%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.3%

D&A/Revenue

4.9%

Tax Rate

14.3%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2023	657	8.7%	7.9%	52	44	32	(12)	11	53	51
2024	690	5.0%	9.1%	63	54	34	(17)	7	63	55
2025	718	4.0%	10.4%	75	64	35	(22)	6	70	56
2026	771	7.4%	11.7%	90	77	38	(29)	12	74	54
2027	823	6.8%	12.9%	106	91	40	(35)	12	84	56
2028	874	6.2%	12.9%	113	97	43	(43)	12	85	52
2029	922	5.5%	12.9%	119	102	45	(51)	11	85	47
2030	967	4.9%	12.9%	125	107	47	(59)	10	85	43
2031	1,009	4.3%	12.9%	130	112	49	(68)	9	84	39
2032	1,045	3.6%	12.9%	135	116	51	(76)	8	82	35

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)487

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 2.5%)1,202

PV of Terminal Value509

Enterprise Value995

(–) Net Debt498

Equity Value497

(÷) Shares Outstanding36

Fair Value per Share$13.69

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	6.9%	9.9%	12.9%	15.9%	18.9%
7.5%	$2	$13	$24	$35	$46
8.5%	$0	$9	$18	$27	$36
9.5%	$-1	$6	$14	$21	$29
10.5%	$-3	$4	$10	$17	$23
11.5%	$-4	$2	$8	$13	$19

Current price: $5.55. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 22.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$13.64

Market Price

$5.55

Upside / Downside

+145.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Atlas Critical Minerals Corporation (ATCX) has a fair value of $13.64 based on 3 comparable companies in the Gold industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Gold

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Atlas Critical Minerals CorporationATCX	202	1.2x	1.0x
CECO Environmental Corp.CECO	2,152	2.8x	3.8x
Strata Critical Medical, Inc.SRTA	365	1.7x	1.4x
Pamt Corp.PAMT	186	0.8x	0.5x
Industry Median		1.7x	1.4x
(*) Revenue		605	690
= Enterprise Value		1,036	952
(-) Net Debt		498	498
Equity Value		537	453
(/) Outstanding shares		36	36
Fair Price		$15	$12

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$13.64

+145.8%