Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) has a fair value of $73.06 based on 2 comparable companies in the Coal industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.ARLP | 3,190 | 10.3x | 11.2x |
| Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | 4,534 | 79.5x | 16.3x |
| Natural Resource Partners L.P. | 1,477 | 11.1x | 23.6x |
| Industry Median | 45.3x | 20.0x | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 311 | 286 | |
| Equity Value | 14,098 | 4,663 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 128 | 128 | |
| Fair Price | $110 | $36 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) has a fair value of $37.09 based on 3 comparable companies in the Coal industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/EBITDA | Forward EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.ARLP | 3,190 | 5.3x | 5.3x |
| Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | 4,534 | 19.1x | 16.3x |
| Peabody Energy Corporation | 2,874 | 6.5x | 6.0x |
| Natural Resource Partners L.P. | 1,477 | 9.3x | 4.9x |
| Industry Median | 9.3x | 6.0x | |
| (*) EBITDA | 675 | 680 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 6,274 | 4,067 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 409 | 409 | |
| Equity Value | 5,865 | 3,659 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 128 | 128 | |
| Fair Price | $46 | $28 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) has a fair value of $51.56 based on 3 comparable companies in the Coal industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.ARLP | 3,190 | 1.6x | 1.6x |
| Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | 4,534 | 3.4x | 2.9x |
| Peabody Energy Corporation | 2,874 | 0.7x | 0.7x |
| Natural Resource Partners L.P. | 1,477 | 7.3x | 3.8x |
| Industry Median | 3.4x | 2.9x | |
| (*) Revenue | 2,195 | 2,211 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 7,549 | 6,508 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 409 | 409 | |
| Equity Value | 7,140 | 6,100 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 128 | 128 | |
| Fair Price | $56 | $48 | |
Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 25.0% plus 10.5% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $60.50 based on TTM EPS (FY2025) of $2.42. The current PEG ratio is 0.39.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG is most informative for high-growth companies — the PEG sweet spot.
| EPS Growth RateHistorical | 15.5% |
| Dividend Yield | +10.5% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 25.0% |
| Fair P/E | 25.0x |
| TTM EPS (FY2025) | $2.42 |
| Fair Value | $60.50 |
No analyst estimates available.
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $182.8M | $1.36 | — |
| FY2022 | $586.2M | $4.39 | +222.8% |
| FY2023 | $630.1M | $4.81 | +9.6% |
| FY2024 | $360.9M | $2.77 | -42.4% |
| FY2025 | $311.2M | $2.42 | -12.6% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 15.5%
Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 7.4% and projected dividend growth of 15.0%, the fair value is $93.95 per share. The DDM range is $60.55 – $161.94 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.
| Year | DPS | Payout Ratio | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $2.63 | 108.4% | -7.5% |
| 2024 | $2.84 | 100.7% | -0.9% |
| 2023 | $2.87 | 57.9% | +85.7% |
| 2022 | $1.54 | 33.5% | +276.4% |
| 2021 | $0.41 | 28.5% | — |
| Year | Projected DPS | Growth | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.02 | 15.0% | 0.9313 | $2.81 |
| 2027 | $3.47 | 15.0% | 0.8673 | $3.01 |
| 2028 | $3.99 | 15.0% | 0.8077 | $3.23 |
| 2029 | $4.59 | 15.0% | 0.7522 | $3.46 |
| 2030 | $5.28 | 15.0% | 0.7005 | $3.70 |
| Terminal Value | $5.41 DPS | 2.5% | $77.74 |
Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.
| Ke \ Growth | 13.0% | 14.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.4% | $149 | $155 | $162 | $162 | $162 |
| 6.4% | $110 | $114 | $119 | $119 | $119 |
| 7.4% | $87 | $90 | $94 | $94 | $94 |
| 8.4% | $71 | $74 | $77 | $77 | $77 |
| 9.4% | $61 | $63 | $66 | $66 | $66 |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.