Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) has a fair value of $5.40 based on 8 comparable companies in the REIT - Mortgage industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.ARI | 1,528 | 13.6x | 207.7x |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | 2,187 | 5.3x | 4.5x |
| Dynex Capital, Inc. | 2,032 | 5.4x | — |
| Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. | 1,648 | 14.6x | 10.0x |
| Ellington Financial Inc. | 1,355 | 11.4x | 9.6x |
| Ladder Capital Corp | 1,310 | 20.1x | 12.9x |
| MFA Financial, Inc. | 1,011 | 5.9x | 6.3x |
| PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | 964 | 11.2x | 8.7x |
| TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. | 657 | 14.9x | 7.6x |
| Industry Median | 11.3x | 8.7x | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 127 | 7 | |
| Equity Value | 1,434 | 64 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 139 | 139 | |
| Fair Price | $10 | $0 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) has a fair value of $1.99 based on 8 comparable companies in the REIT - Mortgage industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/EBITDA | Forward EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.ARI | 1,528 | 15.6x | 62.9x |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. | 2,187 | 20.8x | — |
| Dynex Capital, Inc. | 2,032 | 20.3x | — |
| Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. | 1,648 | 9.6x | 8.1x |
| Ellington Financial Inc. | 1,355 | 39.5x | 84.0x |
| Ladder Capital Corp | 1,310 | 17.4x | 26.2x |
| MFA Financial, Inc. | 1,011 | 17.1x | 42.5x |
| TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. | 657 | 14.7x | 31.1x |
| KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. | 425 | 18.3x | 48.2x |
| Industry Median | 17.8x | 36.8x | |
| (*) EBITDA | 598 | 148 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 10,673 | 5,436 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 7,778 | 7,778 | |
| Equity Value | 2,895 | -2,342 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 139 | 139 | |
| Fair Price | $21 | $-17 | |
Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 8.0% plus 9.7% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $6.48 based on TTM EPS (FY2025) of $0.81.
| EPS Growth RateHistorical | -13.7% |
| Dividend Yield | +9.7% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 8.0% |
| Fair P/E | 8.0x |
| TTM EPS (FY2025) | $0.81 |
| Fair Value | $6.48 |
No analyst estimates available.
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $223.5M | $1.46 | — |
| FY2022 | $265.2M | $1.68 | +15.1% |
| FY2023 | $58.1M | $0.29 | -82.7% |
| FY2024 | $-119.6M | $-0.97 | -434.5% |
| FY2025 | $126.7M | $0.81 | — |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -13.7%
Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 15.3% and projected dividend growth of 8.5%, the fair value is $10.23 per share. The DDM range is $8.17 – $13.19 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.
| Year | DPS | Payout Ratio | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1.02 | 111.5% | -23.6% |
| 2024 | $1.33 | — | -6.9% |
| 2023 | $1.43 | 347.5% | +18.0% |
| 2022 | $1.21 | 75.6% | +2.2% |
| 2021 | $1.19 | 89.3% | — |
| Year | Projected DPS | Growth | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.10 | 8.5% | 0.8671 | $0.96 |
| 2027 | $1.20 | 8.5% | 0.7518 | $0.90 |
| 2028 | $1.30 | 8.5% | 0.6519 | $0.85 |
| 2029 | $1.41 | 8.5% | 0.5653 | $0.80 |
| 2030 | $1.53 | 8.5% | 0.4901 | $0.75 |
| Terminal Value | $1.57 DPS | 2.5% | $5.98 |
Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.
| Ke \ Growth | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.3% | $11 | $12 | $12 | $13 | $13 |
| 14.3% | $10 | $11 | $11 | $12 | $12 |
| 15.3% | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 | $11 |
| 16.3% | $9 | $9 | $9 | $10 | $10 |
| 17.3% | $8 | $8 | $9 | $9 | $9 |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.