Aemetis, Inc.

AMTX

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingNASDAQ

$2.21

Market Cap: $155.51M

Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:24

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.08 – $23.62	$7.47	+140.1%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.06 – $19.55	$4.76	+53.1%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	-$2.96 – $8.20	$0.85	-72.7%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$4.76

Market Price

$2.21

Upside / Downside

+115.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -17.9% to a target of 15.8% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 10.8%, Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) has an intrinsic value of $4.76 per share (range: $0.06 – $19.55).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-17.9%

Target Operating Margin

15.8%

WACC

10.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

13.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	331	59.0%	-11.2%	-37	-37	11	(41)	-1	-66	-63
2027	498	50.8%	-4.4%	-22	-22	16	(58)	-6	-58	-50
2028	792	58.8%	2.3%	18	14	26	(87)	-11	-36	-28
2029	933	17.9%	9.0%	84	67	30	(96)	-5	6	4
2030	1,008	8.0%	15.8%	159	125	33	(96)	-3	65	41
2031	1,009	0.1%	15.8%	159	126	33	(89)	-0	69	39
2032	1,016	0.7%	15.8%	160	126	33	(83)	-0	77	40
2033	1,029	1.3%	15.8%	162	128	33	(76)	-0	86	40
2034	1,048	1.8%	15.8%	165	130	34	(70)	-1	95	40
2035	1,073	2.4%	15.8%	169	134	35	(64)	-1	105	40

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)102

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,388

PV of Terminal Value524

Enterprise Value626

(–) Net Debt313

Equity Value313

(÷) Shares Outstanding66

Fair Value per Share$4.76

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	9.8%	12.8%	15.8%	18.8%	21.8%
8.8%	$0	$5	$10	$15	$20
9.8%	$-1	$3	$7	$11	$15
10.8%	$-2	$1	$5	$8	$12
11.8%	$-3	$0	$3	$6	$9
12.8%	$-4	$-1	$2	$4	$7

Current price: $2.21. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -3.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$7.47

Market Price

$2.21

Upside / Downside

+238.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-17.9%

Target Operating Margin

15.8%

WACC

10.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

13.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	331	59.0%	-11.2%	-37	-37	11	(39)	-1	-64	-61
2027	498	50.8%	-4.4%	-22	-22	16	(51)	-6	-51	-44
2028	792	58.8%	2.3%	18	14	26	(70)	-11	-19	-15
2029	933	17.9%	9.0%	84	67	30	(69)	-5	33	23
2030	1,008	8.0%	15.8%	159	125	33	(60)	-3	100	63

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-33

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,328

PV of Terminal Value837

Enterprise Value804

(–) Net Debt313

Equity Value491

(÷) Shares Outstanding66

Fair Value per Share$7.47

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	9.8%	12.8%	15.8%	18.8%	21.8%
8.8%	$3	$8	$13	$19	$24
9.8%	$1	$6	$10	$14	$19
10.8%	$0	$4	$7	$11	$15
11.8%	$-1	$2	$6	$9	$12
12.8%	$-2	$1	$4	$7	$10

Current price: $2.21. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -3.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.75

Market Price

$2.21

Upside / Downside

-66.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) has a fair value of $0.75 based on 8 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Aemetis, Inc.AMTX	145	2.2x	1.4x
Gran Tierra Energy Inc.GTE	306	1.6x	1.5x
Kolibri Global Energy Inc.KGEI	189	4.1x	4.7x
Dynagas LNG Partners LPDLNG	155	2.5x	2.5x
DMC Global Inc.BOOM	112	0.3x	0.3x
SunPower Inc.SPWR	97	0.3x	1.0x
XCF Global, Inc. Class A Common StockSAFX	92	10.3x	10.7x
FTC Solar, Inc.FTCI	58	0.7x	0.4x
Zeo Energy Corp.ZEO	34	0.6x	—
Industry Median		1.2x	1.5x
(*) Revenue		208	322
= Enterprise Value		239	485
(-) Net Debt		313	313
Equity Value		-73	172
(/) Outstanding shares		66	66
Fair Price		$-1	$3

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.75

-66.2%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.08 – $23.62

$7.47

+140.1%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.06 – $19.55

$4.76

+53.1%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

-$2.96 – $8.20

$0.85

-72.7%

DCF Analysis

Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$4.76

Market Price

$2.21

Upside / Downside

+115.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-17.9%

Target Operating Margin

15.8%

WACC

10.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

13.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	331	59.0%	-11.2%	-37	-37	11	(41)	-1	-66	-63
2027	498	50.8%	-4.4%	-22	-22	16	(58)	-6	-58	-50
2028	792	58.8%	2.3%	18	14	26	(87)	-11	-36	-28
2029	933	17.9%	9.0%	84	67	30	(96)	-5	6	4
2030	1,008	8.0%	15.8%	159	125	33	(96)	-3	65	41
2031	1,009	0.1%	15.8%	159	126	33	(89)	-0	69	39
2032	1,016	0.7%	15.8%	160	126	33	(83)	-0	77	40
2033	1,029	1.3%	15.8%	162	128	33	(76)	-0	86	40
2034	1,048	1.8%	15.8%	165	130	34	(70)	-1	95	40
2035	1,073	2.4%	15.8%	169	134	35	(64)	-1	105	40

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)102

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,388

PV of Terminal Value524

Enterprise Value626

(–) Net Debt313

Equity Value313

(÷) Shares Outstanding66

Fair Value per Share$4.76

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	9.8%	12.8%	15.8%	18.8%	21.8%
8.8%	$0	$5	$10	$15	$20
9.8%	$-1	$3	$7	$11	$15
10.8%	$-2	$1	$5	$8	$12
11.8%	$-3	$0	$3	$6	$9
12.8%	$-4	$-1	$2	$4	$7

Current price: $2.21. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -3.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.75

Market Price

$2.21

Upside / Downside

-66.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) has a fair value of $0.75 based on 8 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Aemetis, Inc.AMTX	145	2.2x	1.4x
Gran Tierra Energy Inc.GTE	306	1.6x	1.5x
Kolibri Global Energy Inc.KGEI	189	4.1x	4.7x
Dynagas LNG Partners LPDLNG	155	2.5x	2.5x
DMC Global Inc.BOOM	112	0.3x	0.3x
SunPower Inc.SPWR	97	0.3x	1.0x
XCF Global, Inc. Class A Common StockSAFX	92	10.3x	10.7x
FTC Solar, Inc.FTCI	58	0.7x	0.4x
Zeo Energy Corp.ZEO	34	0.6x	—
Industry Median		1.2x	1.5x
(*) Revenue		208	322
= Enterprise Value		239	485
(-) Net Debt		313	313
Equity Value		-73	172
(/) Outstanding shares		66	66
Fair Price		$-1	$3

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.75

-66.2%