Amplitude, Inc.

AMPL

TechnologySoftware - ApplicationNASDAQ

$6.36

Market Cap: $845.05M

Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 21:58

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.61 – $8.01	$1.24	-80.5%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.07 – $12.71	$2.85	-55.2%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$4.78 – $14.98	$6.50	+2.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.85

Market Price

$6.36

Upside / Downside

-55.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -28.0% to a target of 10.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.9%, Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) has an intrinsic value of $2.85 per share (range: $0.07 – $12.71).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-28.0%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.1%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	400	16.5%	-20.3%	-81	-81	9	(8)	17	-98	-94
2027	461	15.2%	-12.7%	-58	-58	10	(12)	5	-65	-58
2028	540	17.3%	-5.0%	-27	-27	12	(16)	7	-39	-31
2029	625	15.7%	2.6%	16	13	13	(21)	7	-2	-2
2030	698	11.7%	10.2%	71	56	15	(27)	6	38	26
2031	816	16.9%	10.2%	84	66	17	(35)	10	39	24
2032	931	14.1%	10.2%	95	75	20	(44)	10	42	24
2033	1,037	11.3%	10.2%	106	84	22	(53)	9	44	23
2034	1,126	8.6%	10.2%	115	91	24	(63)	8	45	22
2035	1,191	5.8%	10.2%	122	96	25	(71)	6	45	20

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-45

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)780

PV of Terminal Value347

Enterprise Value302

(–) Net Debt-74

Equity Value376

(÷) Shares Outstanding132

Fair Value per Share$2.85

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.9%	$-1	$1	$5	$9	$13
7.9%	$-1	$1	$4	$7	$10
8.9%	$-1	$0	$3	$5	$8
9.9%	$-1	$0	$2	$4	$6
10.9%	$-1	$0	$2	$3	$5

Current price: $6.36. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 8.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.24

Market Price

$6.36

Upside / Downside

-80.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-28.0%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.1%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	400	16.5%	-20.3%	-81	-81	9	(10)	17	-99	-95
2027	461	15.2%	-12.7%	-58	-58	10	(16)	5	-69	-61
2028	540	17.3%	-5.0%	-27	-27	12	(23)	7	-46	-37
2029	625	15.7%	2.6%	16	13	13	(32)	7	-13	-10
2030	698	11.7%	10.2%	71	56	15	(42)	6	23	16

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-187

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)406

PV of Terminal Value276

Enterprise Value89

(–) Net Debt-74

Equity Value163

(÷) Shares Outstanding132

Fair Value per Share$1.24

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.9%	$-1	$-0	$3	$5	$8
7.9%	$-1	$-0	$2	$4	$6
8.9%	$-1	$-1	$1	$3	$5
9.9%	$-1	$-1	$1	$2	$4
10.9%	$-1	$-1	$1	$2	$3

Current price: $6.36. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 8.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$6.50

Market Price

$6.36

Upside / Downside

+2.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) has a fair value of $6.50 based on 6 comparable companies in the Software - Application industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Amplitude, Inc.AMPL	839	2.2x	1.9x
Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc.UCTT	3,582	2.0x	2.0x
Fastly, Inc.FSLY	3,210	5.5x	5.6x
Yalla Group LimitedYALA	1,081	1.6x	1.7x
Rezolve AI PLCRZLV	639	14.6x	—
PAR Technology CorporationPAR	594	2.0x	2.4x
Alight, Inc.ALIT	434	1.0x	0.9x
Industry Median		2.0x	2.0x
(*) Revenue		343	400
= Enterprise Value		686	880
(-) Net Debt		-74	-74
Equity Value		760	955
(/) Outstanding shares		132	132
Fair Price		$6	$7

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$6.50

+2.2%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.61 – $8.01

$1.24

-80.5%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.07 – $12.71

$2.85

-55.2%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$4.78 – $14.98

$6.50

+2.2%

DCF Analysis

Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.85

Market Price

$6.36

Upside / Downside

-55.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-28.0%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.1%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	400	16.5%	-20.3%	-81	-81	9	(8)	17	-98	-94
2027	461	15.2%	-12.7%	-58	-58	10	(12)	5	-65	-58
2028	540	17.3%	-5.0%	-27	-27	12	(16)	7	-39	-31
2029	625	15.7%	2.6%	16	13	13	(21)	7	-2	-2
2030	698	11.7%	10.2%	71	56	15	(27)	6	38	26
2031	816	16.9%	10.2%	84	66	17	(35)	10	39	24
2032	931	14.1%	10.2%	95	75	20	(44)	10	42	24
2033	1,037	11.3%	10.2%	106	84	22	(53)	9	44	23
2034	1,126	8.6%	10.2%	115	91	24	(63)	8	45	22
2035	1,191	5.8%	10.2%	122	96	25	(71)	6	45	20

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-45

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)780

PV of Terminal Value347

Enterprise Value302

(–) Net Debt-74

Equity Value376

(÷) Shares Outstanding132

Fair Value per Share$2.85

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.9%	$-1	$1	$5	$9	$13
7.9%	$-1	$1	$4	$7	$10
8.9%	$-1	$0	$3	$5	$8
9.9%	$-1	$0	$2	$4	$6
10.9%	$-1	$0	$2	$3	$5

Current price: $6.36. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 8.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$6.50

Market Price

$6.36

Upside / Downside

+2.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) has a fair value of $6.50 based on 6 comparable companies in the Software - Application industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Amplitude, Inc.AMPL	839	2.2x	1.9x
Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc.UCTT	3,582	2.0x	2.0x
Fastly, Inc.FSLY	3,210	5.5x	5.6x
Yalla Group LimitedYALA	1,081	1.6x	1.7x
Rezolve AI PLCRZLV	639	14.6x	—
PAR Technology CorporationPAR	594	2.0x	2.4x
Alight, Inc.ALIT	434	1.0x	0.9x
Industry Median		2.0x	2.0x
(*) Revenue		343	400
= Enterprise Value		686	880
(-) Net Debt		-74	-74
Equity Value		760	955
(/) Outstanding shares		132	132
Fair Price		$6	$7

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$6.50

+2.2%