Amber International Holding Ltd

AMBR

Real EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentNASDAQ

$2.13

Market Cap: $199.54M

Amber International Holding Ltd (AMBR) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 07:38

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$41.44 – $266.73	$103.31	+4750.1%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$18.11 – $140.28	$53.01	+2388.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$55.96 – $143.27	$92.27	+4232.1%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Amber International Holding Ltd (AMBR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$53.01

Market Price

$2.13

Upside / Downside

+2388.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -52.9% to a target of 28.4% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.5%, Amber International Holding Ltd (AMBR) has an intrinsic value of $53.01 per share (range: $18.11 – $140.28).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-52.9%

Target Operating Margin

28.4%

WACC

7.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.0%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	69	111.2%	-36.7%	-25	-25	1	(1)	13	-38	-36
2026	62	-10.4%	-20.4%	-13	-13	1	(1)	-2	-10	-9
2027	82	32.4%	-4.2%	-3	-3	2	(2)	6	-9	-8
2028	74	-10.0%	12.1%	9	7	1	(2)	-2	9	7
2029	67	-10.0%	28.4%	19	15	1	(2)	-2	16	12
2030	60	-10.0%	28.4%	17	13	1	(2)	-2	14	10
2031	54	-10.0%	28.4%	15	12	1	(2)	-2	12	8
2032	49	-10.0%	28.4%	14	11	1	(2)	-1	11	6
2033	44	-10.0%	28.4%	12	10	1	(2)	-1	10	5
2034	42	-4.2%	28.4%	12	9	1	(3)	-1	8	4

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-2

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)187

PV of Terminal Value94

Enterprise Value92

(–) Net Debt-17

Equity Value109

(÷) Shares Outstanding2

Fair Value per Share$53.01

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	22.4%	25.4%	28.4%	31.4%	34.4%
5.5%	$76	$92	$108	$124	$140
6.5%	$49	$61	$73	$85	$96
7.5%	$34	$44	$53	$62	$72
8.5%	$25	$33	$40	$48	$56
9.5%	$18	$25	$32	$39	$45

Current price: $2.13. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 27.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Amber International Holding Ltd (AMBR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$103.31

Market Price

$2.13

Upside / Downside

+4750.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-52.9%

Target Operating Margin

28.4%

WACC

7.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.0%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	69	111.2%	-36.7%	-25	-25	1	(1)	13	-38	-37
2026	62	-10.4%	-20.4%	-13	-13	1	(2)	-2	-11	-10
2027	82	32.4%	-4.2%	-3	-3	2	(3)	6	-10	-9
2028	74	-10.0%	12.1%	9	7	1	(4)	-2	7	6
2029	67	-10.0%	28.4%	19	15	1	(4)	-2	14	10

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-40

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)326

PV of Terminal Value235

Enterprise Value196

(–) Net Debt-17

Equity Value212

(÷) Shares Outstanding2

Fair Value per Share$103.31

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	22.4%	25.4%	28.4%	31.4%	34.4%
5.5%	$159	$186	$213	$240	$267
6.5%	$104	$123	$142	$161	$181
7.5%	$74	$88	$103	$118	$133
8.5%	$55	$67	$79	$91	$103
9.5%	$41	$52	$62	$72	$82

Current price: $2.13. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 27.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$92.27

Market Price

$2.13

Upside / Downside

+4232.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Amber International Holding Ltd (AMBR) has a fair value of $92.27 based on 8 comparable companies in the Real Estate - Development industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Real Estate - Development

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Amber International Holding LtdAMBR	4	-0.4x	-0.1x
Brookfield BRP Holdings Canada 4.625% Perpetual Subordinated NotesBEPH	6,594	6.1x	—
Brookfield BRP Holdings Canada 4.875% Perpetual Subordinated NotesBEPI	6,470	6.1x	—
Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A.B. de C.V.VTMX	3,023	13.6x	12.6x
Forestar Group Inc.FOR	1,402	1.1x	1.3x
Five Point Holdings, LLCFPH	349	4.0x	2.8x
American Realty Investors, Inc.ARL	223	8.5x	0.0x
Smith Douglas Homes Corp.SDHC	108	0.1x	0.1x
JFB Construction Holdings Class A Common StockJFB	95	3.0x	—
Industry Median		5.0x	1.3x
(*) Revenue		33	143
= Enterprise Value		165	180
(-) Net Debt		-17	-17
Equity Value		182	197
(/) Outstanding shares		2	2
Fair Price		$89	$96

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$92.27

+4232.1%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$41.44 – $266.73

$103.31

+4750.1%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$18.11 – $140.28

$53.01

+2388.5%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$55.96 – $143.27

$92.27

+4232.1%

DCF Analysis

Amber International Holding Ltd (AMBR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$53.01

Market Price

$2.13

Upside / Downside

+2388.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-52.9%

Target Operating Margin

28.4%

WACC

7.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.0%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	69	111.2%	-36.7%	-25	-25	1	(1)	13	-38	-36
2026	62	-10.4%	-20.4%	-13	-13	1	(1)	-2	-10	-9
2027	82	32.4%	-4.2%	-3	-3	2	(2)	6	-9	-8
2028	74	-10.0%	12.1%	9	7	1	(2)	-2	9	7
2029	67	-10.0%	28.4%	19	15	1	(2)	-2	16	12
2030	60	-10.0%	28.4%	17	13	1	(2)	-2	14	10
2031	54	-10.0%	28.4%	15	12	1	(2)	-2	12	8
2032	49	-10.0%	28.4%	14	11	1	(2)	-1	11	6
2033	44	-10.0%	28.4%	12	10	1	(2)	-1	10	5
2034	42	-4.2%	28.4%	12	9	1	(3)	-1	8	4

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-2

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)187

PV of Terminal Value94

Enterprise Value92

(–) Net Debt-17

Equity Value109

(÷) Shares Outstanding2

Fair Value per Share$53.01

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	22.4%	25.4%	28.4%	31.4%	34.4%
5.5%	$76	$92	$108	$124	$140
6.5%	$49	$61	$73	$85	$96
7.5%	$34	$44	$53	$62	$72
8.5%	$25	$33	$40	$48	$56
9.5%	$18	$25	$32	$39	$45

Current price: $2.13. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 27.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$92.27

Market Price

$2.13

Upside / Downside

+4232.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Real Estate - Development

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Amber International Holding LtdAMBR	4	-0.4x	-0.1x
Brookfield BRP Holdings Canada 4.625% Perpetual Subordinated NotesBEPH	6,594	6.1x	—
Brookfield BRP Holdings Canada 4.875% Perpetual Subordinated NotesBEPI	6,470	6.1x	—
Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A.B. de C.V.VTMX	3,023	13.6x	12.6x
Forestar Group Inc.FOR	1,402	1.1x	1.3x
Five Point Holdings, LLCFPH	349	4.0x	2.8x
American Realty Investors, Inc.ARL	223	8.5x	0.0x
Smith Douglas Homes Corp.SDHC	108	0.1x	0.1x
JFB Construction Holdings Class A Common StockJFB	95	3.0x	—
Industry Median		5.0x	1.3x
(*) Revenue		33	143
= Enterprise Value		165	180
(-) Net Debt		-17	-17
Equity Value		182	197
(/) Outstanding shares		2	2
Fair Price		$89	$96

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$92.27

+4232.1%