Alkami Technology, Inc.

ALKT

TechnologySoftware - ApplicationNASDAQ

$17.22

Market Cap: $1.84B

Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 27, 2026 22:21

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.57 – $21.25	$2.43	-84.6%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$2.20 – $49.81	$12.36	-21.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$1.31 – $6.38	$2.27	-85.6%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$12.36

Market Price

$17.22

Upside / Downside

-28.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -12.1% to a target of 10.1% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.2%, Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) has an intrinsic value of $12.36 per share (range: $2.20 – $49.81).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-12.1%

Target Operating Margin

10.1%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	529	19.2%	-7.7%	-40	-40	21	(9)	10	-39	-37
2027	620	17.4%	-3.2%	-20	-20	24	(13)	10	-19	-17
2028	722	16.4%	1.2%	9	7	28	(19)	11	5	4
2029	938	30.0%	5.6%	53	42	36	(29)	23	26	20
2030	1,220	30.0%	10.1%	123	97	47	(44)	30	71	50
2031	1,538	26.1%	10.1%	155	122	60	(63)	33	86	56
2032	1,868	21.4%	10.1%	188	148	73	(85)	35	101	60
2033	2,182	16.8%	10.1%	220	173	85	(110)	33	115	64
2034	2,449	12.2%	10.1%	246	195	95	(135)	28	127	65
2035	2,635	7.6%	10.1%	265	209	102	(158)	20	134	63

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)327

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)2,644

PV of Terminal Value1,248

Enterprise Value1,575

(–) Net Debt290

Equity Value1,285

(÷) Shares Outstanding104

Fair Value per Share$12.36

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.1%	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%
6.2%	$-2	$11	$24	$37	$50
7.2%	$-2	$7	$17	$26	$36
8.2%	$-2	$5	$12	$20	$27
9.2%	$-3	$3	$9	$15	$21
10.2%	$-3	$2	$7	$12	$17

Current price: $17.22. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 10.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.43

Market Price

$17.22

Upside / Downside

-85.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-12.1%

Target Operating Margin

10.1%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	529	19.2%	-7.7%	-40	-40	21	(11)	10	-41	-40
2027	620	17.4%	-3.2%	-20	-20	24	(19)	10	-25	-22
2028	722	16.4%	1.2%	9	7	28	(29)	11	-5	-4
2029	938	30.0%	5.6%	53	42	36	(47)	23	8	6
2030	1,220	30.0%	10.1%	123	97	47	(73)	30	42	29

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-31

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)819

PV of Terminal Value574

Enterprise Value543

(–) Net Debt290

Equity Value253

(÷) Shares Outstanding104

Fair Value per Share$2.43

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.1%	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%
6.2%	$-4	$-1	$7	$14	$21
7.2%	$-4	$-1	$4	$10	$15
8.2%	$-4	$-2	$2	$7	$11
9.2%	$-4	$-2	$1	$5	$9
10.2%	$-4	$-2	$1	$4	$7

Current price: $17.22. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 10.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$2.27

Market Price

$17.22

Upside / Downside

-86.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) has a fair value of $2.27 based on 8 comparable companies in the Software - Application industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Alkami Technology, Inc.ALKT	1,789	4.7x	6.2x
Diebold Nixdorf, IncorporatedDBD	2,866	1.0x	1.0x
Grindr Inc.GRND	2,509	6.4x	5.3x
ePlus inc.PLUS	2,230	1.0x	0.9x
Marqeta, Inc.MQ	1,848	1.4x	1.3x
DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc.DV	1,767	2.1x	2.0x
WEBTOON Entertainment Inc. Common stockWBTN	1,579	0.7x	0.8x
Sprinklr, Inc.CXM	1,279	1.4x	1.4x
Progress Software CorporationPRGS	1,153	2.0x	2.5x
Industry Median		1.4x	1.3x
(*) Revenue		444	334
= Enterprise Value		616	437
(-) Net Debt		290	290
Equity Value		326	147
(/) Outstanding shares		104	104
Fair Price		$3	$1

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$2.27

-86.8%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.57 – $21.25

$2.43

-84.6%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$2.20 – $49.81

$12.36

-21.6%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$1.31 – $6.38

$2.27

-85.6%

DCF Analysis

Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$12.36

Market Price

$17.22

Upside / Downside

-28.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-12.1%

Target Operating Margin

10.1%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	529	19.2%	-7.7%	-40	-40	21	(9)	10	-39	-37
2027	620	17.4%	-3.2%	-20	-20	24	(13)	10	-19	-17
2028	722	16.4%	1.2%	9	7	28	(19)	11	5	4
2029	938	30.0%	5.6%	53	42	36	(29)	23	26	20
2030	1,220	30.0%	10.1%	123	97	47	(44)	30	71	50
2031	1,538	26.1%	10.1%	155	122	60	(63)	33	86	56
2032	1,868	21.4%	10.1%	188	148	73	(85)	35	101	60
2033	2,182	16.8%	10.1%	220	173	85	(110)	33	115	64
2034	2,449	12.2%	10.1%	246	195	95	(135)	28	127	65
2035	2,635	7.6%	10.1%	265	209	102	(158)	20	134	63

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)327

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)2,644

PV of Terminal Value1,248

Enterprise Value1,575

(–) Net Debt290

Equity Value1,285

(÷) Shares Outstanding104

Fair Value per Share$12.36

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.1%	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%
6.2%	$-2	$11	$24	$37	$50
7.2%	$-2	$7	$17	$26	$36
8.2%	$-2	$5	$12	$20	$27
9.2%	$-3	$3	$9	$15	$21
10.2%	$-3	$2	$7	$12	$17

Current price: $17.22. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 10.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$2.27

Market Price

$17.22

Upside / Downside

-86.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Alkami Technology, Inc.ALKT	1,789	4.7x	6.2x
Diebold Nixdorf, IncorporatedDBD	2,866	1.0x	1.0x
Grindr Inc.GRND	2,509	6.4x	5.3x
ePlus inc.PLUS	2,230	1.0x	0.9x
Marqeta, Inc.MQ	1,848	1.4x	1.3x
DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc.DV	1,767	2.1x	2.0x
WEBTOON Entertainment Inc. Common stockWBTN	1,579	0.7x	0.8x
Sprinklr, Inc.CXM	1,279	1.4x	1.4x
Progress Software CorporationPRGS	1,153	2.0x	2.5x
Industry Median		1.4x	1.3x
(*) Revenue		444	334
= Enterprise Value		616	437
(-) Net Debt		290	290
Equity Value		326	147
(/) Outstanding shares		104	104
Fair Price		$3	$1

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$2.27

-86.8%