ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.

ADTN

TechnologyCommunication EquipmentNASDAQ

$15.77

Market Cap: $1.28B

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 28, 2026 22:22

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	—	N/A	—
Revenue DCF 10Y	$4.70 – $50.43	$7.77	-51.9%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$14.66 – $22.87	$21.57	+33.5%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$7.77

Market Price

$15.77

Upside / Downside

-50.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -1.4% to a target of 10.0% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.0%, ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) has an intrinsic value of $7.77 per share (range: $4.70 – $50.43).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1.4%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

11.6%

D&A/Revenue

7.7%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	1,180	8.9%	0.8%	10	8	91	(47)	160	-109	-104
2027	1,280	8.4%	3.1%	40	32	99	(62)	35	33	29
2028	1,548	21.0%	5.4%	84	66	119	(88)	95	2	2
2029	1,824	17.8%	7.7%	140	111	141	(119)	98	35	26
2030	2,148	17.8%	10.0%	214	169	166	(158)	115	61	42
2031	2,478	15.3%	10.0%	247	195	191	(203)	117	66	41
2032	2,796	12.9%	10.0%	279	220	215	(253)	113	70	40
2033	3,087	10.4%	10.0%	308	243	238	(305)	103	73	38
2034	3,332	7.9%	10.0%	332	263	257	(357)	87	75	36
2035	3,514	5.5%	10.0%	351	277	271	(406)	65	77	34

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)183

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,325

PV of Terminal Value586

Enterprise Value769

(–) Net Debt149

Equity Value620

(÷) Shares Outstanding80

Fair Value per Share$7.77

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
7.0%	$-7	$-3	$14	$32	$50
8.0%	$-7	$-3	$10	$24	$39
9.0%	$-7	$-3	$8	$19	$31
10.0%	$-6	$-3	$6	$16	$25
11.0%	$-6	$-3	$5	$13	$21

Current price: $15.77. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 35.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$21.57

Market Price

$15.77

Upside / Downside

+36.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) has a fair value of $21.57 based on 8 comparable companies in the Communication Equipment industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Communication Equipment

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.ADTN	1,258	1.3x	1.5x
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor LimitedAOSL	1,178	1.5x	1.6x
Ituran Location and Control Ltd.ITRN	1,094	2.8x	3.0x
Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd.GILT	980	1.8x	2.7x
OppFi Inc.OPFI	778	1.7x	4.2x
Stratasys Ltd.SSYS	738	1.2x	1.1x
Corsair Gaming, Inc.CRSR	714	0.5x	0.6x
NETGEAR, Inc.NTGR	681	0.8x	0.8x
PowerFleet, Inc.AIOT	415	1.8x	4.9x
Industry Median		1.6x	2.1x
(*) Revenue		1,084	919
= Enterprise Value		1,767	1,972
(-) Net Debt		149	149
Equity Value		1,617	1,823
(/) Outstanding shares		80	80
Fair Price		$20	$23

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$21.57

+36.8%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

—

N/A

—

Revenue DCF 10Y

$4.70 – $50.43

$7.77

-51.9%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$14.66 – $22.87

$21.57

+33.5%

DCF Analysis

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$7.77

Market Price

$15.77

Upside / Downside

-50.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1.4%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

11.6%

D&A/Revenue

7.7%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	1,180	8.9%	0.8%	10	8	91	(47)	160	-109	-104
2027	1,280	8.4%	3.1%	40	32	99	(62)	35	33	29
2028	1,548	21.0%	5.4%	84	66	119	(88)	95	2	2
2029	1,824	17.8%	7.7%	140	111	141	(119)	98	35	26
2030	2,148	17.8%	10.0%	214	169	166	(158)	115	61	42
2031	2,478	15.3%	10.0%	247	195	191	(203)	117	66	41
2032	2,796	12.9%	10.0%	279	220	215	(253)	113	70	40
2033	3,087	10.4%	10.0%	308	243	238	(305)	103	73	38
2034	3,332	7.9%	10.0%	332	263	257	(357)	87	75	36
2035	3,514	5.5%	10.0%	351	277	271	(406)	65	77	34

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)183

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,325

PV of Terminal Value586

Enterprise Value769

(–) Net Debt149

Equity Value620

(÷) Shares Outstanding80

Fair Value per Share$7.77

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
7.0%	$-7	$-3	$14	$32	$50
8.0%	$-7	$-3	$10	$24	$39
9.0%	$-7	$-3	$8	$19	$31
10.0%	$-6	$-3	$6	$16	$25
11.0%	$-6	$-3	$5	$13	$21

Current price: $15.77. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 35.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$21.57

Market Price

$15.77

Upside / Downside

+36.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Communication Equipment

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.ADTN	1,258	1.3x	1.5x
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor LimitedAOSL	1,178	1.5x	1.6x
Ituran Location and Control Ltd.ITRN	1,094	2.8x	3.0x
Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd.GILT	980	1.8x	2.7x
OppFi Inc.OPFI	778	1.7x	4.2x
Stratasys Ltd.SSYS	738	1.2x	1.1x
Corsair Gaming, Inc.CRSR	714	0.5x	0.6x
NETGEAR, Inc.NTGR	681	0.8x	0.8x
PowerFleet, Inc.AIOT	415	1.8x	4.9x
Industry Median		1.6x	2.1x
(*) Revenue		1,084	919
= Enterprise Value		1,767	1,972
(-) Net Debt		149	149
Equity Value		1,617	1,823
(/) Outstanding shares		80	80
Fair Price		$20	$23

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$21.57

+36.8%