Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation

ADPT

HealthcareBiotechnologyNASDAQ

$13.81

Market Cap: $2.21B

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) Valuation Summary

Updated May 10, 2026 14:59

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	—	N/A	—
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.42 – $10.62	$1.05	-92.4%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$6.95 – $41.98	$8.04	-41.8%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.05

Market Price

$13.81

Upside / Downside

-92.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -20.6% to a target of 13.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.2%, Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) has an intrinsic value of $1.05 per share (range: $0.42 – $10.62).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-20.6%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

11.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

15.8%

D&A/Revenue

10.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	285	3.0%	-13.9%	-40	-40	30	(34)	13	-57	-54
2027	350	22.6%	-7.1%	-25	-25	37	(44)	15	-47	-41
2028	427	21.9%	-0.3%	-1	-1	45	(55)	18	-29	-24
2029	525	23.0%	6.4%	34	27	55	(70)	23	-11	-8
2030	658	25.4%	13.2%	87	69	69	(90)	31	17	12
2031	748	13.6%	13.2%	99	78	79	(106)	21	30	20
2032	834	11.5%	13.2%	110	87	88	(121)	20	33	20
2033	912	9.4%	13.2%	120	95	96	(136)	18	36	20
2034	978	7.2%	13.2%	129	102	103	(150)	15	39	20
2035	1,028	5.1%	13.2%	136	107	108	(162)	12	41	20

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-17

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)818

PV of Terminal Value386

Enterprise Value369

(–) Net Debt210

Equity Value159

(÷) Shares Outstanding152

Fair Value per Share$1.05

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.2%	$-3	$-0	$4	$7	$11
7.2%	$-3	$-1	$2	$5	$7
8.2%	$-3	$-1	$1	$3	$5
9.2%	$-3	$-1	$0	$2	$4
10.2%	$-3	$-1	$-0	$1	$3

Current price: $13.81. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 23.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$8.04

Market Price

$13.81

Upside / Downside

-41.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) has a fair value of $8.04 based on 7 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Adaptive Biotechnologies CorporationADPT	2,095	8.3x	8.1x
Scholar Rock Holding CorporationSRRK	5,336	159.7x	—
Legend Biotech CorporationLEGN	5,201	4.6x	3.3x
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.CPRX	3,811	5.3x	4.9x
Beam Therapeutics Inc.BEAM	3,321	23.8x	57.3x
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.TARS	2,722	5.8x	3.8x
IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.IDYA	2,488	11.0x	69.2x
Zai Lab LimitedZLAB	2,188	3.8x	3.5x
Industry Median		5.8x	4.4x
(*) Revenue		277	285
= Enterprise Value		1,615	1,245
(-) Net Debt		210	210
Equity Value		1,405	1,034
(/) Outstanding shares		152	152
Fair Price		$9	$7

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$8.04

-41.8%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

—

N/A

—

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.42 – $10.62

$1.05

-92.4%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$6.95 – $41.98

$8.04

-41.8%

DCF Analysis

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.05

Market Price

$13.81

Upside / Downside

-92.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-20.6%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

11.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

15.8%

D&A/Revenue

10.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	285	3.0%	-13.9%	-40	-40	30	(34)	13	-57	-54
2027	350	22.6%	-7.1%	-25	-25	37	(44)	15	-47	-41
2028	427	21.9%	-0.3%	-1	-1	45	(55)	18	-29	-24
2029	525	23.0%	6.4%	34	27	55	(70)	23	-11	-8
2030	658	25.4%	13.2%	87	69	69	(90)	31	17	12
2031	748	13.6%	13.2%	99	78	79	(106)	21	30	20
2032	834	11.5%	13.2%	110	87	88	(121)	20	33	20
2033	912	9.4%	13.2%	120	95	96	(136)	18	36	20
2034	978	7.2%	13.2%	129	102	103	(150)	15	39	20
2035	1,028	5.1%	13.2%	136	107	108	(162)	12	41	20

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-17

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)818

PV of Terminal Value386

Enterprise Value369

(–) Net Debt210

Equity Value159

(÷) Shares Outstanding152

Fair Value per Share$1.05

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.2%	$-3	$-0	$4	$7	$11
7.2%	$-3	$-1	$2	$5	$7
8.2%	$-3	$-1	$1	$3	$5
9.2%	$-3	$-1	$0	$2	$4
10.2%	$-3	$-1	$-0	$1	$3

Current price: $13.81. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 23.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$8.04

Market Price

$13.81

Upside / Downside

-41.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Adaptive Biotechnologies CorporationADPT	2,095	8.3x	8.1x
Scholar Rock Holding CorporationSRRK	5,336	159.7x	—
Legend Biotech CorporationLEGN	5,201	4.6x	3.3x
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.CPRX	3,811	5.3x	4.9x
Beam Therapeutics Inc.BEAM	3,321	23.8x	57.3x
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.TARS	2,722	5.8x	3.8x
IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.IDYA	2,488	11.0x	69.2x
Zai Lab LimitedZLAB	2,188	3.8x	3.5x
Industry Median		5.8x	4.4x
(*) Revenue		277	285
= Enterprise Value		1,615	1,245
(-) Net Debt		210	210
Equity Value		1,405	1,034
(/) Outstanding shares		152	152
Fair Price		$9	$7

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$8.04

-41.8%