Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Acacia Research Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -31.9% to 30.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 88, DPO 56, DIO 121). At a 8.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (0% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.7x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $1.69 per share, suggesting ACTG is overvalued by 63.7% at the current price of $4.66.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -14 | -18 | -24 | -31 | -40 | -41 |
| (−) Net Interest | 12 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 33 | 34 |
| (+) D&A | 40 | 48 | 64 | 85 | 83 | 85 |
| EBITDA | 37 | 45 | 60 | 79 | 76 | 78 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 64 | 84 | 109 | 142 | 184 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 24 | 19 | 25 | 32 | 42 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -51 | -58 | -74 | -95 | -150 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 5.7x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 442 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.64% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -49 | -51 | -60 | -71 | -103 | 292 |
| Enterprise Value | -42 | |||||
| Projection Period | -334 | 0.0% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 292 | 0.0% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (206) | |||||
| Equity Value | 164 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 97M | |||||
| Fair Price | $2 | -63.7% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 1.7x | 3.7x | 5.7x | 7.7x | 9.7x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $0 | $1 | $2 | $3 | $4 |
| 7.6% | $0 | $1 | $2 | $3 | $4 |
| 8.6% | $0 | $1 | $2 | $3 | $4 |
| 9.6% | $0 | $1 | $2 | $3 | $4 |
| 10.6% | $0 | $1 | $2 | $3 | $4 |
Current price: $4.66. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Acacia Research Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -31.9% to 8.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 88, DPO 56, DIO 121). At a 8.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (0% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.7x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $0.25 per share, suggesting ACTG is overvalued by 94.7% at the current price of $4.66.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -14 | -18 | -24 | -31 | -40 | -52 | -64 | -76 | -86 | -93 | -95 |
| (−) Net Interest | 12 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 33 | 43 | 53 | 63 | 71 | 77 | 79 |
| (+) D&A | 40 | 48 | 64 | 85 | 83 | 117 | 151 | 193 | 241 | 292 | 299 |
| EBITDA | 37 | 45 | 60 | 79 | 76 | 108 | 140 | 180 | 226 | 276 | 283 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 64 | 84 | 109 | 142 | 184 | 238 | 294 | 349 | 395 | 428 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 24 | 19 | 25 | 32 | 42 | 52 | 56 | 54 | 46 | 32 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -51 | -58 | -74 | -95 | -150 | -182 | -209 | -222 | -215 | -184 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 5.7x | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | 1,600 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.64% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -49 | -51 | -60 | -71 | -103 | -116 | -122 | -119 | -106 | -84 | 699 |
| Enterprise Value | -183 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | -881 | 0.0% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 699 | 0.0% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (206) | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 24 | ||||||||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 97M | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $0 | -94.8% | |||||||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 1.7x | 3.7x | 5.7x | 7.7x | 9.7x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $0 | $0 | $1 | $4 | $7 |
| 7.6% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $3 | $6 |
| 8.6% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $3 | $5 |
| 9.6% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2 | $5 |
| 10.6% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2 | $4 |
Current price: $4.66. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG) has a fair value of $2.42 based on 5 comparable companies in the Specialty Business Services industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acacia Research CorporationACTG | 453 | 21.2x | — |
| Spire Global, Inc. | 541 | 10.8x | — |
| Pangaea Logistics Solutions, Ltd. | 512 | 26.1x | 10.2x |
| Quad/Graphics, Inc. | 395 | 14.2x | — |
| SBC Medical Group Holdings Incorporated | 329 | 6.4x | 5.4x |
| Wabash National Corporation | 317 | 1.5x | 2.3x |
| Industry Median | 10.8x | 5.4x | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 22 | ||
| Equity Value | 235 | ||
| (/) Outstanding shares | 97 | ||
| Fair Price | $2 | ||
Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG) has a fair value of $3.75 based on 6 comparable companies in the Specialty Business Services industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/EBITDA | Forward EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acacia Research CorporationACTG | 453 | 5.0x | 24.7x |
| Pangaea Logistics Solutions, Ltd. | 512 | 9.7x | 12.5x |
| Costamare Bulkers Holdings Ltd | 468 | 26.9x | — |
| Quad/Graphics, Inc. | 395 | 3.9x | 3.4x |
| Civeo Corporation | 394 | 7.4x | 6.8x |
| SBC Medical Group Holdings Incorporated | 329 | 3.1x | 2.5x |
| Wabash National Corporation | 317 | 2.0x | 1.3x |
| Industry Median | 5.7x | 3.4x | |
| (*) EBITDA | 50 | 10 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 282 | 34 | |
| (-) Net Debt | -206 | -206 | |
| Equity Value | 488 | 240 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 97 | 97 | |
| Fair Price | $5 | $2 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG) has a fair value of $3.99 based on 9 comparable companies in the Specialty Business Services industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acacia Research CorporationACTG | 453 | 0.9x | 4.3x |
| Pangaea Logistics Solutions, Ltd. | 512 | 1.2x | 1.6x |
| Costamare Bulkers Holdings Ltd | 468 | 0.7x | — |
| Quad/Graphics, Inc. | 395 | 0.3x | 0.3x |
| Civeo Corporation | 394 | 0.9x | 0.8x |
| SBC Medical Group Holdings Incorporated | 329 | 1.3x | 1.0x |
| Wabash National Corporation | 317 | 0.5x | 0.3x |
| flyExclusive, Inc. | 190 | 1.1x | 1.2x |
| Tecogen Inc. | 144 | 5.0x | 5.1x |
| Rich Sparkle Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares | 90 | 13.9x | — |
| Industry Median | 1.1x | 1.0x | |
| (*) Revenue | 285 | 57 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 306 | 57 | |
| (-) Net Debt | -206 | -206 | |
| Equity Value | 512 | 263 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 97 | 97 | |
| Fair Price | $5 | $3 | |
Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 8.0%, the company has a fair value of $1.76 based on TTM EPS (FY2025) of $0.22.
| EPS Growth RateHistorical | -41.7% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 8.0% |
| Fair P/E | 8.0x |
| TTM EPS (FY2025) | $0.22 |
| Fair Value | $1.76 |
No analyst estimates available.
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $149.2M | $1.91 | — |
| FY2022 | $-125.1M | $-1.21 | -163.4% |
| FY2023 | $67.1M | $0.58 | — |
| FY2024 | $-36.1M | $-0.36 | -162.1% |
| FY2025 | $21.7M | $0.22 | — |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -41.7%
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.