Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Accendra Health, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -6.2% to -10.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 22, DPO 57, DIO 48). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (84% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $11.16 per share, suggesting ACH is undervalued by 211.8% at the current price of $3.58.
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| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 47 | 49 | 51 | 58 | 52 | 53 |
| (−) Net Interest | 48 | 51 | 53 | 60 | 54 | 55 |
| (+) D&A | 169 | 172 | 154 | 127 | 99 | 101 |
| EBITDA | 264 | 272 | 258 | 245 | 205 | 210 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (−) CapEx | 69 | 72 | 76 | 85 | 77 | 79 |
| (−) ΔWC | 301 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -13 | -14 |
| Free Cash Flow (FCFF) | -106 | 195 | 177 | 145 | 141 | 145 |
| Terminal Value | 3,302 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.9% | |||||
| Long-term Growth Rate | 2.5% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -102 | 176 | 150 | 115 | 105 | 2,367 |
| Enterprise Value | 2,810 | |||||
| Projection Period | 443 | 15.8% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 2,367 | 84.2% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 1,952 | |||||
| Equity Value | 858 | |||||
| (/) Outstanding Shares | 77 | |||||
| Fair Price | $11.16 | |||||
| WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.9% | $25 | $32 | $43 | $59 | $88 |
| 5.9% | $13 | $17 | $22 | $30 | $40 |
| 6.9% | $5 | $8 | $11 | $15 | $20 |
| 7.9% | $0 | $2 | $4 | $7 | $10 |
| 8.9% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1 | $3 |
Current price: $3.58. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Accendra Health, Inc. (ACH) has a fair value of $166.28 based on 6 comparable companies in the Medical - Distribution industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accendra Health, Inc.ACH | 275 | 0.8x | 0.8x |
| BioAge Labs, Inc. | 647 | 51.6x | 102.1x |
| Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc. | 595 | 73.7x | 106.2x |
| Editas Medicine, Inc. | 304 | 5.8x | 9.6x |
| Sight Sciences, Inc. | 286 | 3.0x | 2.9x |
| CVRx, Inc. | 180 | 2.7x | 2.7x |
| Outset Medical, Inc. | 68 | 1.2x | 1.1x |
| Industry Median | 4.4x | 6.3x | |
| (*) Revenue | 2,762 | 2,767 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 12,177 | 17,300 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,952 | 1,952 | |
| Equity Value | 10,225 | 15,348 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 77 | 77 | |
| Fair Price | $133 | $200 | |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.