---
title: Treasury yields — the curve, spreads, inversions and the discount rate
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/tools/yield-curve
as_of: 2026-10-16
---
# Treasury yields — Oct 16, 2026

Curve shape: normal. 10Y − 3M +83 bp (a year ago +1 bp), 10Y − 2Y +35 bp, 30Y − 10Y +34 bp. The site's valuations discount at a risk-free rate of 5.09% plus beta × an equity risk premium of 4.14%.

## Every maturity

| Maturity | Yield | 1 week | 1 month | 1 year | Percentile since 1990 | Percentile since 2008 |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 1M | 4.12% | -2 bp | +16 bp | -7 bp | 82.5 | 85.2 |
| 3M | 4.26% | +3 bp | +12 bp | +24 bp | 64.1 | 85.0 |
| 6M | 4.34% | +4 bp | +12 bp | +54 bp | 65.3 | 88.2 |
| 1Y | 4.46% | +2 bp | +1 bp | +88 bp | 66.6 | 90.1 |
| 2Y | 4.74% | -1 bp | 0 bp | +126 bp | 70.6 | 96.1 |
| 3Y | 4.82% | -3 bp | 0 bp | +135 bp | 72.4 | 99.0 |
| 5Y | 4.89% | -10 bp | +3 bp | +129 bp | 69.7 | 99.6 |
| 7Y | 4.98% | -13 bp | +4 bp | +119 bp | 68.5 | 99.6 |
| 10Y | 5.09% | -13 bp | +8 bp | +106 bp | 68.6 | 99.6 |
| 20Y | 5.47% | -17 bp | +8 bp | +88 bp | 74.4 | 99.7 |
| 30Y | 5.43% | -17 bp | +8 bp | +81 bp | 65.6 | 99.7 |

## Real yield and breakeven inflation (10-year)

| Window | Nominal | Real | Breakeven |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 3 months | +54 bp | +43 bp | +11 bp |
| 12 months | +106 bp | +101 bp | +5 bp |

10-year real yield 2.74%, breakeven 2.35%.

## 10Y − 3M inversions since 1990

| Inverted from | Back above zero | Days inverted | Deepest | Next NBER recession | Months after start |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | --- | ---: |
| 2000-07-07 | 2001-02-12 | 134 | -95 bp | 2001-03 | 8 |
| 2006-07-17 | 2007-05-30 | 218 | -64 bp | 2007-12 | 17 |
| 2019-05-13 | 2019-10-11 | 99 | -52 bp | 2020-02 | 9 |
| 2022-10-18 | 2024-12-13 | 535 | -189 bp | none so far | — |
| 2025-02-26 (intermittent) | 2025-09-16 | 85 | -27 bp | none so far | — |

## Rises of 100 bp or more within a year

| Low | High | Rise | SPY low → high | SPY next 12 months |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2026-02-27 (3.97%) | ongoing (5.31%) | +134 bp | 13% | — |
| 2024-09-16 (3.63%) | 2025-01-13 (4.79%) | +116 bp | 3.3% | 19.3% |
| 2021-12-03 (1.35%) | 2022-10-24 (4.25%) | +290 bp | -16.4% | 11.8% |
| 2020-08-04 (0.52%) | 2021-03-19 (1.74%) | +122 bp | 18% | 14.1% |
| 2017-09-07 (2.05%) | 2018-05-17 (3.11%) | +106 bp | 10.2% | 5.1% |
| 2016-07-08 (1.37%) | 2017-03-13 (2.62%) | +125 bp | 11.8% | 16.4% |
| 2012-08-31 (1.57%) | 2013-09-05 (2.98%) | +141 bp | 17.6% | 21.2% |
| 2010-10-08 (2.41%) | 2011-02-08 (3.75%) | +134 bp | 13.8% | 2% |
| 2008-12-18 (2.08%) | 2009-06-10 (3.98%) | +190 bp | 5.7% | 15.6% |
| 2005-06-27 (3.90%) | 2006-06-26 (5.25%) | +135 bp | — | — |
| 2003-06-13 (3.13%) | 2004-06-14 (4.89%) | +176 bp | — | — |
| 2001-11-07 (4.22%) | 2002-04-01 (5.44%) | +122 bp | — | — |
| 1999-01-22 (4.64%) | 2000-01-20 (6.79%) | +215 bp | — | — |
| 1996-01-18 (5.53%) | 1996-07-05 (7.06%) | +153 bp | — | — |
| 1993-10-20 (5.26%) | 1994-10-24 (7.86%) | +260 bp | — | — |
| 1991-12-31 (6.71%) | 1992-03-13 (7.71%) | +100 bp | — | — |

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/tools/yield-curve (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Daily par yield curves (nominal and real) from the U.S. Department of the Treasury; recession dates from the NBER. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.