---
title: Waste Management (WM) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/wm
ticker: WM
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Industrials
industry: Waste Management
---
# Waste Management (WM)

Waste Management (WM) closed at $226.86 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 36% vs its model value of $167.23 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $226.86 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $167.23 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 36% vs model |
| Range of that model | $75.75 – $400.15 |
| Market value | $90.7B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 33.9 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 10.7% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $2.8B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 1.61% |
| Beta | 0.43 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 6.92% |
| Business classification | Mature & Stable (Moderate growth (~11% recent), Moderate margins (11% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings, High leverage (D/E 2.3x)) |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 1.61% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $3.66 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 47.4% |
| Raised | 22 years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 10.0% a year |
| Latest payment | $0.945, ex-date Sep 11, 2026, paid Sep 25, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Sep 2, 2021 | $2.27 |
| To Sep 8, 2022 | $2.53 |
| To Sep 7, 2023 | $2.75 |
| To Sep 13, 2024 | $2.95 |
| To Sep 12, 2025 | $3.23 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Sep 11, 2026) | $3.66 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $167.23 | $75.75 | $400.15 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $182.01 | $88.06 | $432.43 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $240.08 | $151.93 | $344.18 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $243.44 | $147.88 | $371.83 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $214.90 | $167.80 | $598.23 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $251.24 | $235.71 | $272.39 |
| PEG | sanity check | $109.49 | $109.49 | $109.49 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $206.74 | $180.38 | $274.25 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $110.93 | $0.00 | $154.82 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $53.39 | $33.86 | $83.72 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $96.07 | $61.28 | $185.65 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 1 open-market sale ($300,163.5); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Carroll John A. | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Open-market sell | 1,365 | $300,163.5 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Stith Kimberly G. | SVP - Chief HR Officer | Tax withholding | 356 | $78,366.3 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Carroll John A. | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Bona fide gift | 4,873.939 | $0 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Carroll John A. | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Bona fide gift | 4,873.939 | $0 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Reed David L. | EVP & CFO | Bona fide gift | 5,357.168 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926101077/tm2624023d1_8k.htm |
| Jul 31, 2026 | S-8 | Employee stock plan registration | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926089171/tm2621524d1_s8.htm |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926088016/wm-20260630x10q.htm |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926087575/tm2621414d1_8k.htm |
| May 14, 2026 | 8-K | 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926060755/tm2614440d2_8k.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Gates | 2026-06-30 | 26,720,744 | $6.0B |
| Jensen | 2026-06-30 | 631,052 | $140.6M |
| Mairs & Power | 2026-06-30 | 591,025 | $131.7M |

3 tracked managers in all.

## About

Waste Management, Inc. (WM) functions as a premier provider of environmental waste solutions across North America, serving a diverse client base that includes residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers. The company's core operations involve comprehensive collection services, which include gathering and transporting both waste materials and recyclables from their initial point of generation to designated transfer stations, material recovery facilities (MRFs), or final disposal sites. Waste Management maintains an extensive network of facilities, owning, developing, and operating landfill gas-to-energy plants within the United States, in addition to managing numerous transfer stations. As of December 31, 2021, its substantial infrastructure consisted of 255 solid waste landfills, 5 secure hazardous waste landfills, 96 material recovery facilities, and 340 transfer station…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/wm (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.