--- title: Vistra (VST) — intrinsic value and fair price canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/vst ticker: VST as_of: 2026-10-17 sector: Utilities industry: Independent Power Producers --- # Vistra (VST) Vistra (VST) closed at $152.02 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 459% vs its model value of $27.21 (from a five-year discounted cash flow). ## Key figures | Figure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Last close | $152.02 (Oct 16, 2026) | | Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $27.21 | | Price vs model | overvalued by 459% vs model | | Range of that model | $3.02 – $93.41 | | Market value | $51.0B | | P/E (fiscal 2025) | 69.7 | | Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 5.6% | | Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $1.3B | | Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 0.60% | | Beta | 1.39 | | Cost of capital (WACC) | 8.94% | | Business classification | Cyclical (Moderate growth (~13% recent), Moderate margins (5% net margin), Highly cyclical earnings, High leverage (D/E 3.7x)) | ## On the stock lists | List | Place | Figure | Page | | --- | ---: | ---: | --- | | Insider buying | #15 | $1.2M | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/insider-buying | ## Dividends | Figure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Trailing dividend yield | 0.60% | | Dividends per share, last 12 months | $0.91 | | Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 23.2% | | Raised | 6 years in a row | | Growth over 5 years | 9.3% a year | | Latest payment | $0.23, ex-date Sep 21, 2026, paid Sep 30, 2026 | | Year of payments | Dividends per share | | --- | ---: | | To Sep 15, 2021 | $0.59 | | To Sep 20, 2022 | $0.68 | | To Sep 19, 2023 | $0.80 | | To Sep 20, 2024 | $0.87 | | To Sep 19, 2025 | $0.90 | | Trailing twelve months (to Sep 21, 2026) | $0.91 | ## Valuation models Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026. | Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High | | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | | DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $27.21 | $3.02 | $93.41 | | DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $36.09 | $10.10 | $106.17 | | DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $104.03 | $49.45 | $168.49 | | DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $100.55 | $45.67 | $174.57 | | P/E · peers | cross check | $87.60 | $45.93 | $147.46 | | P/E · own history | cross check | $143.15 | $109.60 | $343.84 | | PEG | sanity check | $216.18 | $216.18 | $216.18 | | EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $93.51 | $92.23 | $114.71 | | EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $61.05 | $16.24 | $137.06 | | Earnings power value | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | | Dividend discount | cross check | $18.86 | $13.71 | $26.93 | ## Insider activity (SEC Form 4) Past 90 days: 3 open-market buys ($1.2M) and 6 open-market sales ($16.6M); 10b5-1 plan sales included. | Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | | Oct 7, 2026 | Moldovan Kristopher E. | EVP and CFO | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 20,000 | $3.3M | | Oct 6, 2026 | HUDSON SCOTT A | EVP & President Vistra Retail | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 22,222 | $3.6M | | Sep 8, 2026 | Moldovan Kristopher E. | EVP and CFO | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 20,000 | $3.0M | | Sep 8, 2026 | HUDSON SCOTT A | EVP & President Vistra Retail | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 7,777 | $1.2M | | Sep 8, 2026 | HUDSON SCOTT A | EVP & President Vistra Retail | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 28,826 | $4.4M | ## Recent SEC filings | Filed | Form | What | Filing | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oct 5, 2026 | 8-K | 1.01 Entry into a Material Agreement; 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000114036126038468/ef20083016_8k.htm | | Sep 24, 2026 | 8-K | 1.01 Entry into a Material Agreement; 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000114036126037577/ef20082680_8k.htm | | Sep 10, 2026 | 424B5 | Prospectus supplement | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000114036126036130/ny20081693x2_424b5.htm | | Sep 9, 2026 | S-3ASR | Shelf registration (automatic) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000114036126035954/ny20081693x1_s3asr.htm | | Aug 10, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000019/vistra-20260630.htm | ## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F) | Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value | | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | | Tepper | 2026-06-30 | 2,215,272 | $351.4M | | Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 751,695 | $119.2M | | Harry Burn | 2026-06-30 | 577,385 | $91.6M | | John Armitage | 2026-06-30 | 485,253 | $77.0M | 5 tracked managers in all. ## About Vistra Corp., along with its various holdings, functions as a unified entity primarily engaged in retail electricity supply and power generation. The company organizes its operations across six distinct segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It directly provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial clients throughout 20 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Beyond its retail endeavors, Vistra also participates in generating electricity, facilitating wholesale energy transactions, managing commodity-related risks, producing fuel, and overseeing fuel logistics. With approximately 4.3 million customers, Vistra commands an impressive generation capacity of about 38,700 megawatts. This capacity is sustained by a diverse portfolio of facilities, including those powered by natural gas, nuclear energy, coal, solar, and advanced batte… --- Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/vst (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.