---
title: Valero Energy (VLO) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/vlo
ticker: VLO
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Energy
industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
---
# Valero Energy (VLO)

Valero Energy (VLO) closed at $444.71 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 273% vs its model value of $119.24 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $444.71 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $119.24 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 273% vs model |
| Range of that model | $74.80 – $279.05 |
| Market value | $128.0B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 58.7 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 1.9% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | — |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 1.06% |
| Beta | 0.59 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 7.78% |
| Business classification | Cyclical (Revenue declining (~-8% recent), Thin margins (1.9% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Best performing this year | #6 | +173.2% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/best-performing-this-year |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 1.06% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $4.73 |
| Coverage | — |
| Raised | 3 years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 3.8% a year |
| Latest payment | $1.20, ex-date Jul 31, 2026, paid Aug 31, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Aug 4, 2021 | $3.92 |
| To Aug 3, 2022 | $3.92 |
| To Aug 2, 2023 | $4.04 |
| To Aug 1, 2024 | $4.23 |
| To Jul 31, 2025 | $4.46 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Jul 31, 2026) | $4.73 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $119.24 | $74.80 | $279.05 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $102.47 | $68.93 | $218.52 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $99.08 | $48.17 | $159.55 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $88.96 | $53.77 | $136.75 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $252.74 | $248.63 | $333.78 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $474.74 | $162.36 | $1,118.25 |
| PEG | sanity check | $1,318.31 | $1,318.31 | $1,318.31 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $205.64 | $192.42 | $225.68 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $298.05 | $280.11 | $307.12 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $129.03 | $105.06 | $164.44 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $74.07 | $54.78 | $125.85 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

No open-market insider buys or sales filed in the past 90 days.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Reymond Robert L | Director | Option/RSU exercise | 924 | $0 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Reymond Robert L | Director | Option/RSU exercise | 924 | $0 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Simmons Gary K. | EVP & COO | Bona fide gift | 4,000 | $0 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Audette Matthew J | Director | Grant / award | 372 | $0 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Walsh Richard Joe | EVP & GC | Bona fide gift | 3,104 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035002/000162828026062625/vlo-20260917.htm |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035002/000162828026050937/vlo-20260630.htm |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035002/000162828026050822/vlo-20260730.htm |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 8-K | 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035002/000162828026048495/vlo-20260716.htm |
| May 8, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote; 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035002/000162828026032765/vlo-20260507.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 285,001 | $74.2M |
| Christopher Bloomstran | 2026-06-30 | 37,893 | $9.9M |

2 tracked managers in all.

## About

Valero Energy Corporation functions as a global producer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemicals, with operations spanning the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and other international territories. The company organizes its business across three primary divisions: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. Its Refining segment generates a wide array of products, including various types of gasoline (conventional, premium, reformulated, and California Air Resources Board-compliant), diverse diesel fuels (low-sulfur, ultra-low-sulfur, and CARB diesel), jet fuels, blendstocks, asphalts, petrochemicals, and lubricants. This division also handles the sale of lube oils and natural gas liquids. As of the end of 2021, Valero managed 15 petroleum refineries, boasting a combined daily processing capacity of approximately 3.2 million barrels of crude oil. The Ethanol…

---

Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/vlo (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.