--- title: UPS (UPS) — intrinsic value and fair price canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/ups ticker: UPS as_of: 2026-10-17 sector: Industrials industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics --- # UPS (UPS) UPS (UPS) closed at $97.50 on Oct 16, 2026, undervalued by 38% vs its model value of $157.27 (from a five-year discounted cash flow). ## Key figures | Figure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Last close | $97.50 (Oct 16, 2026) | | Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $157.27 | | Price vs model | undervalued by 38% vs model | | Range of that model | $99.09 – $352.98 | | Market value | $73.1B | | P/E (fiscal 2025) | 14.9 | | Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 6.3% | | Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $4.8B | | Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 6.73% | | Beta | 1.05 | | Cost of capital (WACC) | 8.02% | | Business classification | Cyclical (Revenue declining (~-1% recent), Moderate margins (6% net margin), Strong dividend yield, Highly cyclical earnings, Strong FCF yield (6.5%)) | ## On the stock lists | List | Place | Figure | Page | | --- | ---: | ---: | --- | | Highest dividend yield | #6 | 6.73% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/highest-dividend-yield | ## Dividends | Figure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Trailing dividend yield | 6.73% | | Dividends per share, last 12 months | $6.56 | | Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 113.3% | | Raised | 16 years in a row | | Growth over 5 years | 10.0% a year | | Latest payment | $1.64, ex-date Aug 17, 2026, paid Sep 3, 2026 | | Year of payments | Dividends per share | | --- | ---: | | To Aug 20, 2021 | $4.07 | | To Aug 12, 2022 | $5.58 | | To Aug 11, 2023 | $6.38 | | To Aug 19, 2024 | $6.51 | | To Aug 18, 2025 | $6.55 | | Trailing twelve months (to Aug 17, 2026) | $6.56 | ## Valuation models Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026. | Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High | | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | | DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $157.27 | $99.09 | $352.98 | | DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $166.31 | $108.30 | $358.05 | | DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $145.57 | $79.13 | $224.35 | | DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $155.97 | $93.09 | $241.37 | | P/E · peers | cross check | $111.39 | $111.06 | $213.99 | | P/E · own history | cross check | $100.82 | $89.26 | $116.22 | | PEG | sanity check | $146.37 | $146.37 | $146.37 | | EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $90.40 | $89.17 | $156.80 | | EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $72.23 | $61.36 | $107.91 | | Earnings power value | cross check | $52.40 | $40.76 | $69.40 | | Dividend discount | cross check | $145.91 | $103.14 | $226.57 | ## Insider activity (SEC Form 4) No open-market insider buys or sales filed in the past 90 days. | Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | | Sep 1, 2026 | Ramos Wilfredo | Chief Intl, Healthcare and SCS | Grant / award | 5,413 | $0 | | Sep 1, 2026 | Subramanian Bala | Chief Digital & Tech Officer | Grant / award | 29,223 | $0 | | Sep 1, 2026 | Cesarone Nando | Chief Global Operations Off | Grant / award | 58,446 | $0 | | May 15, 2026 | Subramanian Bala | Chief Digital & Tech Officer | Option/RSU exercise | 3,086.297 | $0 | | May 15, 2026 | Subramanian Bala | Chief Digital & Tech Officer | Tax withholding | 1,027 | $103,501.1 | ## Recent SEC filings | Filed | Form | What | Filing | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Aug 31, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000162828026059609/ups-20260831.htm | | Aug 18, 2026 | 8-K | 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000110465926098351/tm2622353d8_8k.htm | | Aug 14, 2026 | 424B5 | Prospectus supplement | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000110465926097139/tm2622353d6_424b5.htm | | Aug 12, 2026 | 424B5 | Prospectus supplement | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000110465926094564/tm2622353d4_424b5.htm | | Aug 12, 2026 | 8-K | 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000110465926094502/tm2622353d5_8k.htm | ## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F) | Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value | | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | | Harry Burn | 2026-06-30 | 801,772 | $86.2M | | Bill Miller | 2026-06-30 | 116,003 | $12.5M | | Robert Olstein | 2026-03-31 | 52,000 | $5.1M | | Arnold Van Den Berg | 2026-06-30 | 25,554 | $2.7M | 8 tracked managers in all. ## About United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services. The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia. The company offers a range of guaranteed day- and time-definite international transportation services; day-definite services; cross-border ground package delivery; contract-only, e-commerce solutions for non-urgent, and cross-border shipments; and international service for urgent and palletized shipments. It also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logist… --- Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/ups (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. 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