---
title: Union Pacific (UNP) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/unp
ticker: UNP
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Industrials
industry: Railroads
---
# Union Pacific (UNP)

Union Pacific (UNP) closed at $289.04 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 23% vs its model value of $235.77 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $289.04 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $235.77 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 23% vs model |
| Range of that model | $138.84 – $584.18 |
| Market value | $171.7B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 24.1 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 29.1% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $5.5B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 1.92% |
| Beta | 0.95 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 8.30% |
| Business classification | Mature & Stable (Low/slowing growth (~1% recent), High profitability (29% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings) |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 1.92% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $5.56 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 58.8% |
| Raised | 19 years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 6.4% a year |
| Latest payment | $1.42, ex-date Aug 31, 2026, paid Sep 30, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Aug 30, 2021 | $4.08 |
| To Aug 30, 2022 | $4.96 |
| To Aug 30, 2023 | $5.20 |
| To Aug 30, 2024 | $5.24 |
| To Aug 29, 2025 | $5.40 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Aug 31, 2026) | $5.56 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $235.77 | $138.84 | $584.18 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $285.29 | $174.04 | $680.22 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $338.46 | $226.45 | $470.40 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $379.26 | $247.90 | $554.81 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $306.28 | $292.75 | $355.29 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $270.57 | $250.19 | $291.89 |
| PEG | sanity check | $161.03 | $161.03 | $161.03 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $276.31 | $257.72 | $316.81 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $244.65 | $227.11 | $271.20 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $61.94 | $44.61 | $86.91 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $117.78 | $81.13 | $192.41 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

No open-market insider buys or sales filed in the past 90 days.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Oct 1, 2026 | WILLIAMS CHRISTOPHER J | Director | Grant / award | 194 | $52,849.5 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Will W Anthony | Director | Grant / award | 162 | $44,132 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | WIEHOFF JOHN | Director | Grant / award | 172 | $46,856.2 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Tien John K Jr | Director | Grant / award | 171 | $46,583.8 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Simons Doyle | Director | Grant / award | 312 | $84,995 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000305/unp-20261016.htm |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000250/unp-20260630.htm |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000249/unp-20260723.htm |
| May 18, 2026 | 8-K | 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000174/unp-20260514.htm |
| Apr 23, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100885/000010088526000155/unp-20260331.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Bill Nygren | 2026-06-30 | 3,844,522 | $1.0B |
| Viking Global | 2026-06-30 | 2,047,332 | $556.9M |
| Klarman | 2026-06-30 | 1,185,395 | $322.4M |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 514,266 | $139.9M |

12 tracked managers in all.

## About

Union Pacific Corporation, a prominent American railway enterprise, conducts its primary operations through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company. The company provides extensive freight transportation services for a wide array of commodities. Its diverse cargo includes agricultural products like grain, fertilizers, and refrigerated foods; energy resources such as coal, renewables, petroleum, and liquid petroleum gases; and industrial materials encompassing construction products, chemicals, plastics, forest products, metals, ores, soda ash, and sand. Union Pacific also facilitates the movement of finished automobiles, automotive parts, and general merchandise in intermodal containers, serving a varied clientele that spans agricultural processors, energy producers, and industrial manufacturers. As of December 31, 2021, the company's vast rail network stretched 32,452 route miles,…

---

Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/unp (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.