---
title: United Airlines Holdings (UAL) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/ual
ticker: UAL
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Industrials
industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
---
# United Airlines Holdings (UAL)

United Airlines Holdings (UAL) closed at $96.10 on Oct 16, 2026, undervalued by 28% vs its model value of $133.93 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $96.10 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $133.93 |
| Price vs model | undervalued by 28% vs model |
| Range of that model | $74.19 – $334.62 |
| Market value | $31.2B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 9.4 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 5.7% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $2.6B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 0.00% |
| Beta | 1.30 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 8.03% |
| Business classification | Cyclical (Low/slowing growth (~5% recent), Decelerated from ~31% 5y CAGR, Moderate margins (6% net margin), Highly cyclical earnings, Strong FCF yield (8.2%)) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Lowest P/E | #13 | 9.4× | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/lowest-pe |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $133.93 | $74.19 | $334.62 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $166.79 | $97.86 | $395.27 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $281.29 | $144.31 | $443.75 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $282.15 | $146.66 | $467.01 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $231.56 | $105.69 | $515.64 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $97.46 | $72.31 | $150.47 |
| PEG | sanity check | $144.24 | $144.24 | $144.24 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $155.40 | $125.64 | $168.88 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $89.01 | $60.79 | $126.83 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 7 open-market sales ($27.6M); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Sep 30, 2026 | BREWER ROSALIND G | Director | Grant / award | 156.75 | $0 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | SHAPIRO EDWARD | Director | Grant / award | 358.29 | $0 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Friend Matthew | Director | Grant / award | 347.1 | $0 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Ward Laysha | Director | Grant / award | 347.1 | $0 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | ISAACSON WALTER | Director | Grant / award | 358.29 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000010051726000139/ual-20260630.htm |
| Jul 15, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000010051726000135/ual-20260715.htm |
| May 22, 2026 | 8-K | 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000110465926065739/tm2615419d1_8k.htm |
| Apr 27, 2026 | 8-K | 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000110465926048992/tm2612792d1_8k.htm |
| Apr 22, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000010051726000091/ual-20260331.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Druckenmiller | 2026-06-30 | 794,795 | $108.1M |
| Samantha McLemore | 2026-06-30 | 731,523 | $99.5M |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 218,601 | $29.7M |
| Polen Capital | 2026-06-30 | 5,277 | $717,619 |

4 tracked managers in all.

## About

United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, delivers air travel solutions on a global scale. Its vast network extends across North America, Europe, Asia, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America, facilitating the movement of both passengers and freight. The company operates these services using a combination of its primary and regional aircraft fleets. Beyond its core transportation offerings, United also provides specialized support to external clients, encompassing catering, ground handling, aviation training, and aircraft maintenance. Established in 1968, the enterprise has its principal offices in Chicago, Illinois. Notably, it adopted its current name, United Airlines Holdings, Inc., in June 2019, having previously operated as United Continental Holdings, Inc.

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/ual (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.