---
title: Target (TGT) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/tgt
ticker: TGT
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Consumer Defensive
industry: Discount Stores
---
# Target (TGT)

Target (TGT) closed at $154.24 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 21% vs its model value of $126.95 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $154.24 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $126.95 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 21% vs model |
| Range of that model | $79.53 – $279.49 |
| Market value | $70.1B |
| P/E (fiscal 2026) | 19.0 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2026) | 3.5% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2026) | $2.8B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 2.97% |
| Beta | 0.98 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 8.18% |
| Business classification | Dividend Payer (Revenue declining (~-1% recent), Thin margins (3.5% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings) |

## On the stock lists

| List | Place | Figure | Page |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Best performing this year | #32 | +57.8% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/best-performing-this-year |
| Dividend growth streaks | #11 | 42+ years | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/dividend-growth-streaks |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 2.97% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $4.58 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2026) | 72.4% |
| Raised | 42+ years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 9.3% a year |
| Latest payment | $1.16, ex-date Aug 12, 2026, paid Sep 1, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Aug 17, 2021 | $2.94 |
| To Aug 16, 2022 | $3.78 |
| To Aug 15, 2023 | $4.34 |
| To Aug 21, 2024 | $4.42 |
| To Aug 13, 2025 | $4.50 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Aug 12, 2026) | $4.58 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $126.95 | $79.53 | $279.49 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $132.12 | $85.88 | $278.07 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $221.64 | $144.56 | $312.62 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $205.53 | $131.95 | $304.38 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $168.59 | $161.33 | $387.93 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $146.30 | $107.31 | $178.30 |
| PEG | sanity check | $107.32 | $107.32 | $107.32 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $211.44 | $189.47 | $358.93 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $233.18 | $161.01 | $297.03 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $86.86 | $69.67 | $111.75 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $85.02 | $59.91 | $133.15 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 3 open-market sales ($11.0M); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Sep 30, 2026 | WEINSTEIN MARK A. | Executive Officer | Grant / award | 23,787 | $0 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | WEINSTEIN MARK A. | Executive Officer | Grant / award | 2,142 | $0 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Lee James | Executive Officer | Tax withholding | 7,636 | $1.2M |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Cornell Brian C | Executive Officer | Open-market sell | 50,000 | $8.2M |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Kremer Melissa K | Executive Officer | Open-market sell | 15,500 | $2.6M |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aug 28, 2026 | S-8 | Employee stock plan registration | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27419/000002741926000046/forms-8foramendedandrestat.htm |
| Aug 28, 2026 | S-3ASR | Shelf registration (automatic) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27419/000002741926000045/trgt-2026sx3asr.htm |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27419/000002741926000042/tgt-20260801.htm |
| Aug 19, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27419/000002741926000034/tgt-20260819.htm |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 8-K | 1.01 Entry into a Material Agreement; 1.02 Termination of a Material Agreement; 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/27419/000002741926000032/tgt-20260814.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Richard Pzena | 2026-06-30 | 373,503 | $48.8M |
| Mairs & Power | 2026-06-30 | 159,261 | $20.8M |
| Dodge & Cox | 2026-06-30 | 95,639 | $12.5M |
| David Katz | 2026-09-30 | 43,192 | $6.8M |

6 tracked managers in all.

## About

Target Corp. engages in the operation and ownership of general merchandise stores. It offers food and general merchandise, clothing and household goods, electronics, and toys. Its brands include A New Day, All in Motion, Art Class, Auden, AVA & VIV, Boots and Barkley, Brightroom, Bullseye's Playground, Casaluna, Cat & Jack, Cloud Island, Colsie, dealworthy, Embark, Everspring, Favorite Day, Figmint, Future Collective, Gigglescape, Good & Gather, Goodfellow & Co, Hearth & Hand with Magnolia, Heyday, Hyde & EEK! Boutique, JoyLab, Kindfull, Kona Sol, Made By Design, Market Pantry, Mondo Llama, More Than Magic, Opalhouse, Open Story, Original Use, Pillowfort, Project 62, Room Essentials, Shade & Shore, Smartly, Smith & Hawken, Sonia Kashuk, Spritz, Sun Squad, Threshold, Universal Thread, up&up, Wild Fable, Wondershop, Xhilaration, California Roots, Casa Cantina, The Collection, Headliner, Ji…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/tgt (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.