---
title: Constellation Brands (STZ) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/stz
ticker: STZ
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Consumer Defensive
industry: Beverages - Alcoholic
---
# Constellation Brands (STZ)

Constellation Brands (STZ) closed at $131.35 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 5% vs its model value of $125.36 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $131.35 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $125.36 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 5% vs model |
| Range of that model | $50.01 – $318.77 |
| Market value | $22.2B |
| P/E (fiscal 2026) | — |
| Net margin (fiscal 2026) | 18.5% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2026) | $1.8B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 3.12% |
| Beta | 0.43 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 6.39% |
| Business classification | Dividend Payer (Revenue declining (~-4% recent), Moderate margins (18% net margin), Strong dividend yield, Highly cyclical earnings, Strong FCF yield (8.1%)) |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 3.12% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $4.10 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2026) | 39.9% |
| Raised | 10+ years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 6.3% a year |
| Latest payment | $1.03, ex-date Jul 30, 2026, paid Aug 13, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Aug 9, 2021 | $3.02 |
| To Aug 9, 2022 | $3.12 |
| To Aug 9, 2023 | $3.38 |
| To Aug 14, 2024 | $3.80 |
| To Jul 30, 2025 | $4.06 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Jul 30, 2026) | $4.10 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $125.36 | $50.01 | $318.77 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $125.91 | $54.12 | $318.58 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $163.92 | $81.45 | $261.78 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $156.89 | $77.33 | $265.22 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $194.12 | $192.22 | $205.07 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $218.90 | $164.82 | $261.89 |
| PEG | sanity check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $171.51 | $154.66 | $180.58 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $105.43 | $103.32 | $110.14 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $24.62 | $8.19 | $51.13 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $96.51 | $63.54 | $173.49 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

No open-market insider buys or sales filed in the past 90 days.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Zaramella Luca | Director | Grant / award | 1,400 | $0 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | SANDS ROBERT | Director, 10% Owner | Grant / award | 1,400 | $0 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | SANDS RICHARD | Director, 10% Owner | Grant / award | 1,400 | $0 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | MCCARTHY DANIEL J | Director | Grant / award | 1,400 | $0 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Madero Garza Jose Manuel | Director | Grant / award | 1,400 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16918/000001691826000040/stz-20260831.htm |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16918/000001691826000039/stz-20261006.htm |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 8-K | 1.01 Entry into a Material Agreement; 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16918/000119312526395558/d104366d8k.htm |
| Sep 8, 2026 | 8-K | 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16918/000001691826000034/stz-20260908.htm |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16918/000001691826000032/stz-20260722.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Bill Nygren | 2026-06-30 | 3,097,056 | $430.8M |
| Richard Pzena | 2026-06-30 | 599,314 | $83.4M |
| David Katz | 2026-09-30 | 90,009 | $10.2M |
| Robert Olstein | 2026-03-31 | 30,500 | $4.6M |

6 tracked managers in all.

## About

Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. The company offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar, Corona Hard Seltzer, Corona Light, Corona Non-Alcoholic, Corona Premier, Corona Refresca, Modelo Especial, Modelo Chelada, Modelo Negra, Modelo Oro, Victoria, Vicky Chamoy, and Pacifico brands. It also offers wine under the Cook’s California Champagne, Kim Crawford, Meiomi, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, SIMI, My Favorite Neighbor, Robert Mondavi Winery, Schrader, and The Prisoner Wine Company brands; and spirits under the Casa Noble, Copper & Kings, High West, Mi CAMPO, Nelson’s Green Brier, and SVEDKA brands. The company provides its products to wholesale distributors, retailers, on-premise locations, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Con…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/stz (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.