--- title: Seagate Technology (STX) — intrinsic value and fair price canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/stx ticker: STX as_of: 2026-10-17 sector: Technology industry: Computer Hardware --- # Seagate Technology (STX) Seagate Technology (STX) closed at $639.01 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 207% vs its model value of $208.14 (from a five-year discounted cash flow). ## Key figures | Figure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Last close | $639.01 (Oct 16, 2026) | | Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $208.14 | | Price vs model | overvalued by 207% vs model | | Range of that model | $158.40 – $302.88 | | Market value | $145.3B | | P/E (fiscal 2026) | 46.0 | | Net margin (fiscal 2026) | 26.1% | | Free cash flow (fiscal 2026) | $3.1B | | Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 0.46% | | Beta | 2.08 | | Cost of capital (WACC) | 12.10% | | Business classification | Cyclical (High revenue growth (~36% recent), High profitability (26% net margin), Highly cyclical earnings) | ## On the stock lists | List | Place | Figure | Page | | --- | ---: | ---: | --- | | Best performing this year | #10 | +132.0% | https://sweetvaluelab.com/lists/best-performing-this-year | ## Dividends | Figure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Trailing dividend yield | 0.46% | | Dividends per share, last 12 months | $2.96 | | Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2026) | 20.4% | | Raised | 2 years in a row | | Growth over 5 years | 2.0% a year | | Latest payment | $0.74, ex-date Sep 24, 2026, paid Oct 7, 2026 | | Year of payments | Dividends per share | | --- | ---: | | To Sep 21, 2021 | $2.68 | | To Sep 20, 2022 | $2.80 | | To Sep 25, 2023 | $2.80 | | To Sep 23, 2024 | $2.80 | | To Sep 30, 2025 | $2.88 | | Trailing twelve months (to Sep 24, 2026) | $2.96 | ## Valuation models Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026. | Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High | | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | | DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $208.14 | $158.40 | $302.88 | | DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $338.23 | $254.71 | $496.44 | | DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $514.29 | $396.80 | $651.19 | | DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $709.28 | $519.36 | $957.34 | | P/E · peers | cross check | $596.64 | $596.64 | $596.64 | | P/E · own history | cross check | $844.52 | $333.60 | $1,570.49 | | PEG | sanity check | $916.19 | $916.19 | $916.19 | | EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $484.54 | $484.54 | $484.54 | | EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $359.75 | $359.75 | $359.75 | | Earnings power value | cross check | $41.94 | $36.42 | $49.03 | | Dividend discount | cross check | $50.82 | $38.57 | $64.92 | ## Insider activity (SEC Form 4) Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 38 open-market sales ($23.7M); 10b5-1 plan sales included. | Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | | Oct 1, 2026 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | CEO | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 962 | $910,022.8 | | Oct 1, 2026 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | CEO | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 440 | $415,714.8 | | Oct 1, 2026 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | CEO | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 280 | $264,099.6 | | Oct 1, 2026 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | CEO | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 40 | $37,648.8 | | Oct 1, 2026 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | CEO | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 80 | $75,216 | ## Recent SEC filings | Filed | Form | What | Filing | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sep 9, 2026 | 8-K | 3.02 Unregistered Sale of Equity; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137789/000119312526385961/d109585d8k.htm | | Sep 8, 2026 | ARS | Annual report to shareholders | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137789/000113778926000211/stxq426filingx2026x08x31x1.pdf | | Sep 8, 2026 | DEFA14A | Additional proxy materials | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137789/000113778926000209/stxdefa-14axproxynotice.htm | | Sep 8, 2026 | DEF 14A | Proxy statement | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137789/000113778926000207/stx-20260908.htm | | Sep 4, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137789/000113778926000201/stx-20260902.htm | ## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F) | Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value | | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | | Stephen Mandel | 2026-06-30 | 1,000,109 | $965.1M | | Chase Coleman | 2026-06-30 | 285,100 | $275.1M | | Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 199,822 | $192.8M | | Druckenmiller | 2026-06-30 | 122,000 | $117.7M | 5 tracked managers in all. ## About Seagate Technology Holdings plc, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, is a global provider of advanced data storage technology and solutions, with operations spanning Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and other international regions. The company's extensive product portfolio encompasses a wide array of mass capacity storage offerings. These include enterprise-grade nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), solid-state drives (SSDs), and complete enterprise nearline systems, alongside specialized HDDs for video and imaging, and network-attached storage (NAS) drives. Beyond these, Seagate also supports legacy systems with Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs. Its consumer-focused segment features external storage devices sold under popular lines such as Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, and Expansion, as well as the premium LaCie brand. The company's product range further extends to internal des… --- Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/stx (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.