---
title: J.M. Smucker (SJM) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/sjm
ticker: SJM
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Consumer Defensive
industry: Packaged Foods
---
# J.M. Smucker (SJM)

J.M. Smucker (SJM) closed at $127.43 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 378% vs its model value of $26.65 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $127.43 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $26.65 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 378% vs model |
| Range of that model | $26.65 – $128.55 |
| Market value | $13.6B |
| P/E (fiscal 2026) | — |
| Net margin (fiscal 2026) | -1.5% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2026) | $1.2B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 3.47% |
| Beta | 0.27 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 6.23% |
| Business classification | Dividend Payer (Low/slowing growth (~5% recent), Currently unprofitable, Strong dividend yield, Highly cyclical earnings, Strong FCF yield (8.5%)) |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 3.47% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $4.42 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2026) | 40.2% |
| Raised | 28 years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 3.7% a year |
| Latest payment | $1.12, ex-date Aug 14, 2026, paid Sep 1, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Aug 12, 2021 | $3.69 |
| To Aug 11, 2022 | $3.99 |
| To Aug 17, 2023 | $4.12 |
| To Aug 16, 2024 | $4.26 |
| To Aug 15, 2025 | $4.34 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Aug 14, 2026) | $4.42 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $26.65 | $0.00 | $128.55 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $30.75 | $0.00 | $136.85 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $54.93 | $17.88 | $98.77 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $52.60 | $14.53 | $103.97 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $70.41 | $38.80 | $90.73 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $33.13 | $6.79 | $79.67 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $38.11 | $18.15 | $70.71 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 4 open-market sales ($13.9M); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Chung Bruce | Director | Grant / award | 226.391 | $0 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Chung Bruce | Director | Grant / award | 1,466 | $0 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Abramo Mercedes | Director | Grant / award | 215.61 | $0 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Abramo Mercedes | Director | Grant / award | 1,466 | $0 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | AMIN TARANG | Director | Grant / award | 1,466 | $0 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sep 23, 2026 | S-3ASR | Shelf registration (automatic) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91419/000119312526399455/d82779ds3asr.htm |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91419/000009141926000080/sjm-20260731.htm |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91419/000009141926000079/sjm-20260826.htm |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 8-K | 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91419/000009141926000076/sjm-20260812.htm |
| Jun 26, 2026 | ARS | Annual report to shareholders | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91419/000119312526283898/d364113dars.pdf |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| John Rogers | 2026-06-30 | 1,798,871 | $202.4M |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 105,870 | $11.9M |
| Lee Ainslie | 2026-06-30 | 27,733 | $3.1M |

3 tracked managers in all.

## About

The J. M. Smucker Company is an international enterprise specializing in the production and marketing of a diverse portfolio of branded food and beverage items. Its operations are organized into three principal U.S. retail divisions: Pet Foods, Coffee, and Consumer Foods. The company's extensive product offerings encompass various coffee options, including roast, ground, single-serve, and premium blends; a wide selection of spreads such as peanut butter and fruit preserves; cooking staples like shortening and oils; convenient frozen sandwiches and snacks; and a full range of pet food and treats. Additionally, Smucker provides hot beverages, portion-controlled items, and flour products for the foodservice sector, alongside frozen handheld meals, juices, beverages, and baking ingredients. These items are marketed under numerous recognizable brands, including Meow Mix, 9Lives, Kibbles 'n Bi…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/sjm (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.