---
title: Shopify (SHOP) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/shop
ticker: SHOP
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Technology
industry: Software - Application
---
# Shopify (SHOP)

Shopify (SHOP) closed at $169.52 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 599% vs its model value of $24.26 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $169.52 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $24.26 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 599% vs model |
| Range of that model | $19.06 – $34.31 |
| Market value | $220.0B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 180.3 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 10.7% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $2.0B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 0.00% |
| Beta | 2.63 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 13.37% |
| Business classification | High Growth (High revenue growth (~28% recent), Moderate margins (11% net margin), Highly cyclical earnings) |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $24.26 | $19.06 | $34.31 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $30.45 | $23.94 | $42.82 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $50.19 | $39.59 | $62.51 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $53.81 | $40.89 | $70.58 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $33.24 | $31.54 | $67.14 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $125.06 | $89.04 | $659.03 |
| PEG | sanity check | $47.21 | $47.21 | $47.21 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $25.07 | $20.16 | $30.95 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $33.40 | $19.92 | $51.80 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

No open-market insider buys or sales filed in the past 90 days.

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000047/shop-20260630.htm |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000046/shop-20260805.htm |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000035/shop-20260702.htm |
| Jun 16, 2026 | 8-K | 5.07 Submission of Matters to a Shareholder Vote; 8.01 Other Events; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000030/shop-20260616.htm |
| Jun 2, 2026 | 8-K | 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure; 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1594805/000159480526000028/shop-20260602.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Polen Capital | 2026-06-30 | 4,577,524 | $522.7M |
| Henry Ellenbogen | 2026-06-30 | 2,335,694 | $266.7M |
| Thomas Gayner | 2026-06-30 | 102,750 | $11.7M |

3 tracked managers in all.

## About

Shopify Inc. functions as a premier commerce technology company, providing an extensive platform and associated services to empower businesses worldwide. Its reach extends across Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific region, and Latin America. The company's robust platform equips merchants to effectively display, organize, market, and sell their merchandise through a multitude of sales avenues. These include digital storefronts accessible via web and mobile, traditional brick-and-mortar stores, temporary pop-up locations, integrated social media channels, proprietary mobile applications, embeddable "buy buttons," and established online marketplaces. Beyond sales, the platform streamlines crucial business operations such as product and inventory management, order and payment processing, fulfillment and shipping logistics, attracting new customers and…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/shop (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.