---
title: Starbucks (SBUX) — intrinsic value and fair price
canonical: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/sbux
ticker: SBUX
as_of: 2026-10-17
sector: Consumer Cyclical
industry: Restaurants
---
# Starbucks (SBUX)

Starbucks (SBUX) closed at $97.52 on Oct 16, 2026, overvalued by 391% vs its model value of $19.86 (from a five-year discounted cash flow).

## Key figures

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Last close | $97.52 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Model value (from a five-year discounted cash flow) | $19.86 |
| Price vs model | overvalued by 391% vs model |
| Range of that model | $10.44 – $48.04 |
| Market value | $111.2B |
| P/E (fiscal 2025) | 59.8 |
| Net margin (fiscal 2025) | 5.0% |
| Free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | $2.4B |
| Dividend yield (trailing twelve months) | 2.54% |
| Beta | 0.97 |
| Cost of capital (WACC) | 8.48% |
| Business classification | Dividend Payer (Low/slowing growth (~2% recent), Thin margins (5.0% net margin), Pays dividends, Highly cyclical earnings, High leverage (D/E 5.0x)) |

## Dividends

| Figure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Trailing dividend yield | 2.54% |
| Dividends per share, last 12 months | $2.48 |
| Dividends / free cash flow (fiscal 2025) | 113.5% |
| Raised | 15+ years in a row |
| Growth over 5 years | 6.6% a year |
| Latest payment | $0.62, ex-date Aug 14, 2026, paid Aug 28, 2026 |

| Year of payments | Dividends per share |
| --- | ---: |
| To Aug 11, 2021 | $1.80 |
| To Aug 11, 2022 | $1.96 |
| To Aug 10, 2023 | $2.12 |
| To Aug 16, 2024 | $2.28 |
| To Aug 15, 2025 | $2.44 |
| Trailing twelve months (to Aug 14, 2026) | $2.48 |

## Valuation models

Each model's value per share and the role the engine gave it for this business. The headline above is one model's value; every other model is listed with its own, and each has a page of its own under the valuation. Computed Oct 17, 2026.

| Model | Role | Value per share | Low | High |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y | primary | $19.86 | $10.44 | $48.04 |
| DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y | cross check | $20.75 | $11.64 | $47.51 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y | cross check | $71.31 | $51.65 | $94.35 |
| DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y | cross check | $60.57 | $40.75 | $86.75 |
| P/E · peers | cross check | $80.08 | $4.37 | $155.80 |
| P/E · own history | cross check | $63.52 | $54.87 | $79.38 |
| PEG | sanity check | $65.62 | $65.62 | $65.62 |
| EV/EBITDA · peers | cross check | $76.53 | $0.00 | $155.48 |
| EV/Revenue · peers | cross check | $11.83 | $3.15 | $141.52 |
| Earnings power value | cross check | $27.15 | $21.37 | $35.41 |
| Dividend discount | cross check | $59.82 | $41.95 | $91.53 |

## Insider activity (SEC Form 4)

Past 90 days: 0 open-market buys ($0) and 3 open-market sales ($627,135.3); 10b5-1 plan sales included.

| Date | Insider | Relationship | Transaction | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Oct 5, 2026 | BREWER BRADY | ceo, International | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 1,641 | $155,501.2 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | KELLY SARA | evp, chief partner officer | Tax withholding | 1,453.695 | $140,397.9 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Niccol Brian R | chairman and ceo | Tax withholding | 56,267 | $5.6M |
| Sep 4, 2026 | BREWER BRADY | ceo, International | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 2,229 | $235,382.4 |
| Aug 5, 2026 | BREWER BRADY | ceo, International | Open-market sell (10b5-1 plan) | 2,229 | $236,251.7 |

## Recent SEC filings

| Filed | Form | What | Filing |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 8-K | 2.05 Costs of Exit or Disposal; 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/829224/000082922426000145/sbux-20260922.htm |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/829224/000082922426000130/sbux-20260628.htm |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 8-K | 2.02 Results of Operations (Earnings); 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/829224/000082922426000129/sbux-20260729.htm |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 8-K | 5.02 Departure/Election of Directors or Officers | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/829224/000082922426000106/sbux-20260611.htm |
| May 20, 2026 | 8-K | 8.01 Other Events | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/829224/000082922426000094/sbux-20260520.htm |

## Superinvestors holding it (latest 13F)

| Manager | Quarter | Shares | Value |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| Polen Capital | 2026-06-30 | 3,550,773 | $362.9M |
| Thomas Gayner | 2026-06-30 | 623,818 | $63.7M |
| David Katz | 2026-09-30 | 214,901 | $20.2M |
| Bridgewater | 2026-06-30 | 66,482 | $6.8M |

6 tracked managers in all.

## About

Starbucks Corporation, along with its various subsidiaries, operates worldwide as a key player in roasting, marketing, and selling specialty coffee. Its business is structured into three main operating divisions: North America, International markets, and Channel Development. The company's retail outlets offer a broad assortment of coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole bean and ground coffees, single-serve options, and ready-to-drink products. Customers can also find a variety of food items, including pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch selections. Furthermore, Starbucks extends its brand reach by licensing its trademarks to independently operated stores, grocery retailers, and foodservice accounts. Products are sold under well-known labels such as Starbucks, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Evolution Fresh, Ethos, Starbucks Reserve, and Princi. As of October 3, 2021, Starbucks had…

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Source: https://sweetvaluelab.com/stocks/sbux (SweetValueLab, free, no account). Prices and statements from Financial Modeling Prep; filings from SEC EDGAR. Research and educational data, not investment advice; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.